ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[USTropics]

Center of Matthew coming into view on extended Miami radar:



http://www.intellicast.com/National/Radar/Current.aspx?location=usfl0316&animate=true

[CourierPR]

We're in Grand Island, Fl, between Eustis and Leesburg. Going to have to leave our mobile home to stay with our daughter. She's in a 3rd floor brick apartment, would that be safe enough?

Yes, it is much safer than your mobile home. Stay safe.

[NDG]

Got back to Orlando yesterday afternoon after working in Tampa for a couple of days, if I would had known that Orlando was going to be in such chaos I would had gone shopping and gased up in Tampa before leaving, what a mess Orlando was, wow.

Anyway, recon is right now on the western eyewall, getting ready to penetrate the eye, we will see how much further the pressure has gone down since the last recon. BTW, the recon that went around Matthew a few minutes ago is just sampling the atmosphere.

[Alyono]

looks to be intensifying again

[SouthFLTropics]

Might just be me but IMO the last few frames of IR look like it is losing some of the deep red convection. Cold tops are warming somewhat. We can hope and pray that the models overdid the intensity estimates and maybe he will weaken before landfall. Perhaps maybe some dry air in the area???

[NDG]

Yeap, is intensifying again.

082700 2413N 07655W 6999 02715 9607 +114 //// 145129 132 103 046 05
082730 2414N 07654W 6938 02818 9638 +112 //// 145120 131 090 026 01

[CourierPR]

looks to be intensifying again

Yes, his appearance has improved on satellite.

[Alyono]

ummm

perhaps my 125 kts at landfall is going to bust big time

[tropicwatch]

Massive drop 941mb

[NDG]

Where they found the lowest pressure, I would think dropsone should find pressure down to around 945mb!!!!

082400 2408N 07705W 6965 02664 9411 +188 +110 118003 008 019 000 00

[Johnny77]

Did I see a 941.1 MB on last center fix?

[Aric Dunn]

wow .. 941 MB thats crazy pressure drop in two hours ..

[SouthFLTropics]

Massive drop 941mb

I know what recon is telling us and I definitely respect that more than a satellite image but recent IR imagery doesn't appear as impressive to me. Am I missing something? If it was strengthening wouldn't we see an increase in deep convection, not a decrease? Perhaps it's wishful thinking from someone staring down the barrel of a loaded gun right now.

[bob rulz]

I forget, since it's been a while since I've analyzed recon reports, but which line is the SFMR reading?

[USTropics]

941mb...

[NDG]

ummm

perhaps my 125 kts at landfall is going to bust big time

Unfortunately you might be right but hopefully it will not be a bust, eastern central FL beaches will never be the same, this area has never been hit by a Cat 4 yet alone a Cat 5.

[CourierPR]

ummm

perhaps my 125 its at landfall is going to bust big time

I live in northern Broward County near the Palm Beach County line and I am not liking what I see.

[Aric Dunn]

even when it was a cat 5 it never looked like a cat 3.. very weird system .. my post analysis should be interesting.

[bahamaswx]

Not to mention 131kt FL. Don't think we've seen numbers that high in a while.

Highest SFMR I see though is a 99kt

[bob rulz]

Massive drop 941mb

I know what recon is telling us and I definitely respect that more than a satellite image but recent IR imagery doesn't appear as impressive to me. Am I missing something. If it was strengthening wouldn't we see an increase in deep convection, not a decrease?

Its appearance on satellite appeared to strengthen greatly before, but the winds weren't responding. The winds often take time to catch up, so that's likely what it's doing now.

I agree it's odd that it seems to be so strong when the satellite appearance seems to have degraded some in the last hour or so, but I imagine that it will be temporary.