ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[marionstorm]

Using the past flight's recon fixes and the latest you can extrapolate landfall on google earth to around Port St. Lucie. That is 300 miles away so of course it will end up further up or down the coast.

[NDG]

Also note that the pass shows no real sign of double wind maxima. No EWRC on the table right now.

again way to early for a ERC. the core just got established .. highly doubt we will see a ERC before landfall. should strengthen/maintain all the way to land.

Not good!

[Aric Dunn]

another very intense burst of convection with the eyewall. should only help warm the core and deepen it.

[Aric Dunn]

The NOAA plane must be a synoptic flight..

[NDG]

Using the past flight's recon fixes and the latest you can extrapolate landfall on google earth to around Port St. Lucie. That is 300 miles away so of course it will end up further up or down the coast.

The Euro and GFS have done a very good job withing 24hr window. BTW, to be exact its fixed center is 277 miles from Port St Lucie

[tropicwatch]

Wonder if NHC is waiting on a wind radii from hh.

[KBBOCA]

Years ago I saw a graphic that dynamically showed the predicted wind field as the hurricane moved along the track. Is there something like this for Matthew?

From the BoatUS site, here is the windfield graphic:



And from Skeetobite, (http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/) a graphic which overlays the windfield on the track:



and

[NDG]

Up to 110 knots on the 5 AM advisory.

[johngaltfla]

Wonder if NHC is waiting on a wind radii from hh.

This is pretty much the most critical update at 0500. It will cause a panic among those that thought they could ride it out which is not unusual down here as you know.

That eye is looking meaner by the minute and I fear what happens when it gets to the Gulf Stream.

[Aric Dunn]

Wonder if NHC is waiting on a wind radii from hh.

up to 125mph..

8am might be looking at a high cat 4

[johngaltfla]

Up to 110 knots on the 5 AM advisory.

Yup, 944 mb. Not good. This is a very bad sign as it is now in prime position to crank up well past 135 mph, IMHO before skirting the FL coastline.

[brunota2003]

Looking at the Miami radar, does it look like the eye is heading on a more WNW heading? Hopefully it is just a wobble, or my tired eyes seeing things...

[Johnny77]

5 AM Advisory: 944 MB, 125 MPH

[SouthFloridawx]

NHC says NW so, I don't know.

Looking at the Miami radar, does it look like the eye is heading on a more WNW heading? Hopefully it is just a wobble, or my tired eyes seeing things...

[CourierPR]

Looking at the Miami radar, does it look like the eye is heading on a more WNW heading? Hopefully it is just a wobble, or my tired eyes seeing things...

I was thinking the same thing and it has me nervous living in northern Broward County.

[jlauderdal]

Looking at the Miami radar, does it look like the eye is heading on a more WNW heading? Hopefully it is just a wobble, or my tired eyes seeing things...

doesnt look 320 to me now but its been averaging that over time and they must feel confident the ridge is about done building

anyone ever see them report higher than normal confidence in any disco ever for any time period..

there is lower than normal confidence in the days 4 and 5 track
prediction.

[tropicwatch]

Still general nw motion.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=23&lon=-77&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir2.pal&numframes=30&mapcolor=yellow&map=latlon

[brunota2003]

The next couple of Recon fixes will be interesting. It'll give us a longer term motion, that is better than eyes at 5 in the morning!

[NDG]

Close up radar view of Matthew:

[GCANE]

Matthew cranking now as DMAX approaches - pretty much as I indicated yesterday.
Eye suddenly popping on IR.
He entrained very moist, high-energy air as indicated by the high Theta-E and CAPE values in the Bahamas.
This on top of the high heat content of the water.