ATL: MATTHEW - Models

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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7321 Postby jlauderdal » Thu Oct 06, 2016 3:28 am

Steve wrote:One last post, ECMWF is taking aim at SFL again in 120 hours. That's Monday night and 997mb on the low resolution version. :/
pattern may be right but seems way to fast...we have Matthew 1 to deal with first
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7322 Postby tolakram » Thu Oct 06, 2016 3:56 am

0z ECMWF
Image

0z GFS
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7323 Postby Hurrilurker » Thu Oct 06, 2016 4:00 am

Wow, the Euro and GFS seem to be in excellent agreement now on the track up the coastline, and the loop after.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7324 Postby tolakram » Thu Oct 06, 2016 4:05 am

GFS 0z full res closeup
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7325 Postby tolakram » Thu Oct 06, 2016 4:06 am

Hurricane Models

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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7326 Postby tolakram » Thu Oct 06, 2016 4:08 am

CMC and NAVGEM

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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7327 Postby USTropics » Thu Oct 06, 2016 4:47 am

06z GFS running, talk about a coastal runner:

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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7328 Postby tolakram » Thu Oct 06, 2016 4:58 am

GFS 6z run so far

Image
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7329 Postby Sav_hurricane_hunter » Thu Oct 06, 2016 5:00 am

All the model runs just posted show it hugging coast from fl to sc but which one is it generally the NHC goes with when they mke their forecast track?
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7330 Postby tolakram » Thu Oct 06, 2016 5:02 am

Sav_hurricane_hunter wrote:All the model runs just posted show it hugging coast from fl to sc but which one is it generally the NHC goes with when they mke their forecast track?


The blend, with ECMWF, GFS, and HWRF being the primary public models they use.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7331 Postby tolakram » Thu Oct 06, 2016 5:04 am

From the 0z plot you can see they are a bit to the right of the cluster of models, though some of these models are not good for tropical tracks.

Image
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7332 Postby tolakram » Thu Oct 06, 2016 5:09 am

Some overnight tweets and copied images.

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/783913916053196801


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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7333 Postby tolakram » Thu Oct 06, 2016 5:11 am

Image

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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7334 Postby tolakram » Thu Oct 06, 2016 5:13 am

Image

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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7335 Postby Sav_hurricane_hunter » Thu Oct 06, 2016 5:13 am

Do you think NHC will adjust to the left w/ all the models showing Matthew hugging coast from Fl to Sc?
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7336 Postby ronjon » Thu Oct 06, 2016 5:22 am

HWRF AND GFDL both take MATT inland from just north of WPB. GFDL takes it up thru Orlando northward while HWRF maybe 10-20 miles inland and north. Pressures down around 940 mb.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7337 Postby jhpigott » Thu Oct 06, 2016 5:26 am

ronjon wrote:HWRF AND GFDL both take MATT inland from just north of WPB. GFDL takes it up thru Orlando northward while HWRF maybe 10-20 miles inland and north. Pressures down around 940 mb.


0z or 6z?
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7338 Postby Nimbus » Thu Oct 06, 2016 5:40 am

The 06 run of the HWRF is a little east of the 00z model.
Its so close it will probably come down to wobble watching.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7339 Postby artist » Thu Oct 06, 2016 5:41 am

ronjon wrote:HWRF AND GFDL both take MATT inland from just north of WPB. GFDL takes it up thru Orlando northward while HWRF maybe 10-20 miles inland and north. Pressures down around 940 mb.

Just lovely. Not.

But I won't shoot the messenger. :ggreen:
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7340 Postby Nimbus » Thu Oct 06, 2016 5:55 am

The 06z HWRF is just offshore the 00z was onshore might be the start of a trend?

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