ATL: NICOLE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/783795655408029700

[abajan]

I'd have gone 60 kt given the eye structure and Dvorak's poor record with small storms. Certainly could become a hurricane.

Considering the intensity which the NHC had been forecasting for Nicole, her strength in the latest advisory came as a big surprise to me. She could well make it to hurricane status tonight.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016
1100 PM AST WED OCT 05 2016

Nicole has continued to become better organized during the past
several hours with a warm spot appearing on the night visible
images. The latest microwave data also show that the storm has
maintained a mid-level eye, although the eye still isn't very well-
defined in the low-level channels. Subjective Dvorak estimates
range from 55 to 65 kt, so the initial intensity is raised to 60 kt.

The storm is starting to take on a more asymetric appearance, a sign
that the long-awaited shear might finally be starting to impact the
cyclone. Still, the shear is not forecast to increase much over the
next day or so, and Nicole has the opportunity to strengthen into a
hurricane during that time, although not explicitly forecast below.
Vertical wind shear should become rather strong by the end of the
forecast period, and Nicole's winds should gradually decrease by
early next week. It is a little puzzling that, with such strong
shear in all of the global models, a lot of guidance don't show much
weakening. Given the likelihood of such an unfavorable environment,
the latest official forecast is very similar to the previous one, on
the low side of the guidance closest to the LGEM model.

The initial motion has turned to the right, now 320/8. Most of the
guidance move the system to the north-northwest or north at a
decreasing forward speed over the next 36 hours as a ridge collapses
to the north of Nicole. After that time, northerly flow related to
a trough over the central Atlantic is forecast to steer Nicole
slowly southward for a couple of days. Up to about 72 hours, the
model guidance is in reasonable agreement on this solution.
Thereafter, the model spread becomes increasingly large very
quickly, with a massive 1000 mile spread between the HWRF and the
ECMWF models by day 5. This appears to be related to Nicole's
possible interaction with Matthew and/or the southern portion of the
trough, resulting in tracks primarily toward the southwest, west, or
northeast. The latest long-range NHC forecast is very close to a
blend of the GFS, UKMET and ECMWF ensemble means, with more weight
on the ECMWF solution. This forecast shows a slow northward motion
by the end of the period, ending up pretty close to the previous
NHC prediction.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0300Z 26.0N 64.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 06/1200Z 26.9N 64.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 07/0000Z 27.7N 65.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 07/1200Z 27.8N 65.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 08/0000Z 27.5N 64.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 09/0000Z 26.5N 64.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 10/0000Z 27.5N 65.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 11/0000Z 29.0N 65.5W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

[CrazyC83]

Up to 60 kt now, although given that one Dvorak estimate said it was a hurricane and the mentioned size issue, I'd have called it Hurricane Nicole now.

[Hurricaneman]

looking at the models I wonder if Nicole could be a third punch to Florida after Matthew loops back into Florida into the Gulf

[tolakram]

6z GFS

[brunota2003]

Looks like the Bahamas might have to keep an eye on Nicole after Matthew passes by?

[northjaxpro]

Looks like the Bahamas might have to keep an eye on Nicole after Matthew passes by?

Yeah , we may see a possible Fujiwhara effect going on here for next week.

[northjaxpro]

Obviously , most everyone, including yours truly has been rightfully focused on the pending impact of Matthew to us on the Florida East Coast, but I had to take a moment to comment on Nicole.

Nicole is really looking good folks. She has persevered through the earlier tussles with shear and is on the threshold of becoming a hurricane, if not one already.

A Fujiwhara interaction with Matthew and Nicole is quite possible going into next week and no sooner when Matthew tries to finally leave the scene, Nicole could follow right behind him and pose another threat to the Bahamas next week.

I just don not want to think more about that at this time. Too much to wory about now with Powerful Matthew heading toward our area.

[Nimbus]

IF we get some troughing that takes Matthew OTS later in the forecast Nicole will likely follow in his weakness.

[tolakram]

visible loop

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20HURRICANE&lat=27&lon=-65&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1024&height=768&type=Animation&quality=92&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=7&mapcolor=gray

latest

[EquusStorm]

That eye feature is still present in microwave images, and the overall presentation has improved overnight. Wouldn't be shocked at all to see a bump to 65kt before it starts declining. Impressive storm given the conditions.

[TheStormExpert]

Been very busy preparing for Matthew that I forgot we had another storm in the Atlantic that is very close to hurricane intensity(if not already).

[Ken711]

IF we get some troughing that takes Matthew OTS later in the forecast Nicole will likely follow in his weakness.

I sure hope Nicole heads OTS, the last thing anyone needs is another hurricane following Matthew.

[Hammy]

There's clearly an eye forming here, not sure why NHC didn't upgrade at 11.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Its not forming...its clearly an eye and it clearing out on the latest loops. Last frame shows an eye
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

[EquusStorm]

At this point I'd not be too shocked if this became more than a category one... the eye is clearing a little even on visible.

[galaxy401]

Yeah this is clearly a hurricane right now. I understand that the NHC is busy with Matthew but this has a clear eye now. Small storms are always hard to estimate.

[Cainer]

If Nicole becomes a hurricane at 5 pm (which I'm sure it will), it will be the first time we've had simultaneous October hurricanes since 2010, when Shary and Tomas were both hurricanes at the same time for 6 hours.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/784077727733284864