ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Nimbus]

Ditto that question. I'm in the North Palm Beach/Juno Beach area and my point forecast calling for 65-85 sustained from the N gusting to 105. Sound reasonable? Looks like we may catch part of the western eyewall. I guess my concern would be a little jog west and we catch the northern eyewall (or God forbid the north eastern eyewall)

Not trying to scare you, but you could be ground zero for landfall of a 140 mph hurricane. Many reliable models bring the storm in near your location.

Yep, that's my concern. If the NHC track holds we'll be in the western core of a 140mph hurricane, which would likely give me high end Cat 1/ low end Cat 2 conditions similar to what we got with Jeanne and Wilma. A track little further west and we catch the N/NE part of the core and potentially a whole other ballgame. Going to be close

Anyone know how the recent ridge sampling compares to the models?
HWRF tracked east a little for 06Z.

[ronjon]

Miami long range RAD:

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=AMX&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

[Shuriken]

Oh man, I didn't expect Matthew to intensify this quickly since I went to bed shortly after the 11pm advisory.

Intensify quickly is exactly what you should expect a hurricane to do over open 30c water, regardless of whatever the models say. We've seen them do it time and time again. Just make it your base assumption, every time, and you'll never be surprised.

[hurricanefloyd5]

06z GFS brings the NW & Western eyewall over Orlando, not good.

Will he really move over Orlando Florida?

[TheEuropean]

06z GFS brings the NW & Western eyewall over Orlando, not good.

Will he really move over Orlando Florida?

Not move over, GFS shows "only" the eyewall ober Orlando.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Weather Underground radar:

https://www.wunderground.com/radar/radb ... ightning=1

Wundermap:

http://wxug.us/221fk

[Ken711]

My heart is so heavy this morning... for Haiti, Cuba and the Bahamas...
and now all on the FL / GA / SC coast.

This is truly looking like one of the "worst case scenarios" so many of us used to banter about, perhaps not really believing we'd ever see it materialize in our lifetimes. So much climatology and history is against the current forecast track, but it looks like it's going to happen. All the models and NHC seem in very earnest agreement about the rough scenario unfolding where basically the whole coastline from Broward on up to Myrtle Beach may get raked by an incredibly strong and dangerous storm.

Hate what I'm seeing about the pressure drops and the storm continuing to get its act together. Praying much for all of you directly affected by the storm or who have loved ones in its path. May you all find safe places of shelter and many friends, family and neighbors supporting each other during these difficult days.

Well said.

[GCANE]

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)

A. Time of Center Fix: 6th day of the month at 10:08:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 24°19'N 77°15'W (24.3167N 77.25W)

G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the NW (318°) of center fix

H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 944mb (27.88 inHg)

I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 13°C (55°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,055m (10,023ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,048m (10,000ft)

L. Eye Character: Closed
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 16 nautical miles (18 statute miles)

Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 132kts (~ 151.9mph) which was observed 18 nautical miles (21 statute miles) to the ESE (103°) from the flight level center at 8:27:00Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 118kts (~ 135.8mph) which was observed 9 nautical miles to the SE (126°) from the flight level center at 10:10:50Z

[eastcoastFL]

So damn scary now!

[KatDaddy]

Hurricane Matthew beginning an intensification phase and now forecast to become a very dangerous CAT 4 at 145g175MPH. This will be a significant event for FLA and I hope everyone has evacuated the coastal areas and completed hurricane preps. Outer squalls are already approaching S FLA this morning and the Miami NWS AFD state the concern well:

***EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE MATTHEW HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING WIDESPREAD AND EXTENSIVE DAMAGE ALONG THE EAST FLORIDA COAST TODAY INTO FRIDAY***

* Hurricane Warnings are in effect for Palm Beach, Broward, Lake
Okeechobee, and the adjacent Atlantic Waters.

* A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Miami-Dade, Glades,
Hendry, interior/eastern Collier, and Mainland Monroe Counties.

* Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for coastal Collier and
Adjacent Gulf Waters of South Florida.

* Flood Watch is in effect for all of Palm Beach County from this
morning until Friday afternoon.


.DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...

***EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE MATTHEW*** was located 255 miles southeast of West Palm Beach Florida as of 5 AM EDT THIS MORNING. NHC is still forecasting ***EXTREMELY DANGEROUS MATTHEW*** to move northwest from the northwest Bahamas early this morning through South Florida Atlantic waters today to near the east coast of Florida tonight as a category 4 hurricane. South Florida residents and visitors should have completed their hurricane plans by the onset of tropical storm force winds this morning. Conditions will deteriorate rapidly and it will be too late! Now is not the time to focus on the exact track of Matthew! Squalls from the outer rainbands of Matthew will begin to affect the eastern areas of South Florida this morning.

[MaineWeatherNut]

Hurricane Matthew beginning an intensification phase and now forecast to become a very dangerous CAT 4 at 145g175MPH. This will be a significant event for FLA and I hope everyone has evacuated the coastal areas and completed hurricane preps. Outer squalls are already approaching S FLA this morning and the Miami NWS AFD state the concern well:

***EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE MATTHEW HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING WIDESPREAD AND EXTENSIVE DAMAGE ALONG THE EAST FLORIDA COAST TODAY INTO FRIDAY***

* Hurricane Warnings are in effect for Palm Beach, Broward, Lake
Okeechobee, and the adjacent Atlantic Waters.

* A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Miami-Dade, Glades,
Hendry, interior/eastern Collier, and Mainland Monroe Counties.

* Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for coastal Collier and
Adjacent Gulf Waters of South Florida.

* Flood Watch is in effect for all of Palm Beach County from this
morning until Friday afternoon.


.DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...

***EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE MATTHEW*** was located 255 miles southeast of West Palm Beach Florida as of 5 AM EDT THIS MORNING. NHC is still forecasting ***EXTREMELY DANGEROUS MATTHEW*** to move northwest from the northwest Bahamas early this morning through South Florida Atlantic waters today to near the east coast of Florida tonight as a category 4 hurricane. South Florida residents and visitors should have completed their hurricane plans by the onset of tropical storm force winds this morning. Conditions will deteriorate rapidly and it will be too late! Now is not the time to focus on the exact track of Matthew! Squalls from the outer rainbands of Matthew will begin to affect the eastern areas of South Florida this morning.

The first outer rain bands are actually coming on shore as we speak...

[Nimbus]

This radar has feeder band motion velocity vectors which are a good indication of what the surface winds will be.




http://radblast-aa.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/radar/WUNIDS_map?station=AMX&brand=wui&num=6&delay=15&type=N0R&frame=0&scale=0.622&noclutter=0&t=1180778261&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&showstorms=31&map.x=400&map.y=240&centerx=472&centery=243&transx=72&transy=3&showlabels=1&severe=0&rainsnow=0&lightning=0

[Harrycane]

Amazing views of what is happening in Nassau through the webcam of the British Colonial Hotel

[NotoSans]

Pressure continues to drop as per latest recon pass. Flight-level winds of 123 knots continue to support an intensity of 110 knots (128 knots SFMR is flagged) but a case for 115 knots could be made.

[hurricanefloyd5]

06z GFS brings the NW & Western eyewall over Orlando, not good.

Will he really move over Orlando Florida?

Not move over, GFS shows "only" the eyewall ober Orlando.

Will the eye wall move over downtown Orlando

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Peak SFMR was 128kts this pass, but was flagged. Pressure 938mb.

[SouthDadeFish]

Latest extrapolated pressure was down to approximately 938 mb. Matthew is steadily intensifying. Nassau and Andros are about to get hammered. The eye is within radar range from Miami, so all you wobble watchers no longer have to try and track it on satellite.

I hope everyone (in at least South Florida) has already completed their preparations. This is a very powerful hurricane and likely the strongest to impact the state of Florida since Andrew in 1992.

[otowntiger]

Pressure continues to drop as per latest recon pass. Flight-level winds of 123 knots continue to support an intensity of 110 knots (128 knots SFMR is flagged) but a case for 115 knots could be made.

Well, what is the pressure down to?

[ronjon]

Not trying to scare you, but you could be ground zero for landfall of a 140 mph hurricane. Many reliable models bring the storm in near your location.

Yep, that's my concern. If the NHC track holds we'll be in the western core of a 140mph hurricane, which would likely give me high end Cat 1/ low end Cat 2 conditions similar to what we got with Jeanne and Wilma. A track little further west and we catch the N/NE part of the core and potentially a whole other ballgame. Going to be close

Anyone know how the recent ridge sampling compares to the models?
HWRF tracked east a little for 06Z.

Time to shift from models to real time on Radar now. Perhaps look at the HRRR hourly updated track model.

[jlauderdal]

Yep, that's my concern. If the NHC track holds we'll be in the western core of a 140mph hurricane, which would likely give me high end Cat 1/ low end Cat 2 conditions similar to what we got with Jeanne and Wilma. A track little further west and we catch the N/NE part of the core and potentially a whole other ballgame. Going to be close

Anyone know how the recent ridge sampling compares to the models?
HWRF tracked east a little for 06Z.

Time to shift from models to real time on Radar now. Perhaps look at the HRRR hourly updated track model.

yes, we are in full nowcast mode..radar, recon sat...hrrr will be interesting to see how it does moving forward..angle now looks good to avoid broward county landfall