ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[TropicalSailor]

Good Morning Everyoen

What current Sat links, radar images, etc are we currently using?

What's the situation this morning? ETA to Landfall and location?

Stay safe

[Frank P]

So serious question. Looks like we will get the eye over my house in Merritt island, fl as a cat 4. We boarded up, braced the garage door, cleaned up. Pretty much everything we can do. The house is block house. Do you guys think it will still be there when we get home? Is a cat 4 pretty much garunteed to take the roof off?? What can I expect?

What is your elevation above sea level? As I recall from my days going to Kennedy Space Center, Merritt Island is not that high above sea level. Your bigger concern would be storm surge if you are in a surge area. If you have a well constructed roof, with hurricane straps, with the decking glued with ring shank nails, and perhaps some dense foam in the areas where the rafters and decking meet, then your roof structural integrity might survive... this is the level of effort you need to build to with in order to keep your roof on in a major storm... and if you have shingles then they most likely will all be gone... but just loosing your shingles will not cause a catastrophic roof failure... however, all it takes is one breach of the house, such as a window blowing out and then all bets are off... hurricane force winds inside a house will do a plethora of damage, including a total failure of the structure..it all has to do with how well the roof is built and connected, how great the winds are, are your house windows, garage, and door opening protected, and the duration of the wind event... good luck, prepare for the worse and hope for the best...

[La Sirena]

Praying for all those in his path. ESP Florida. Question I have is what does everyone think he's going to look like (best and worst) by the time he gets to Charleston? I'm still trying to decide whether to stay or go. Local says expect tropical force winds and possible hurricane plus lots of rain. Thanks all and God Bless.

Hey there! Former Tybee resident who used to do a lot of business in Mt. Pleasant. You have a tough decision to make. I can say that if it were me, I would leave. Storm surge will be the biggest issue. Wouldn't chance my life on it. If you have the ability to leave, then do so.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

[CronkPSU]

1-95 crash at SR 520, one lane ugh.

Crash at beach line/528 as well just before the airport

[1900hurricane]

I wonder why they used the extrapolation for this VDM. It looks like an eye dropsonde was available for use. Maybe because there was only a single mb difference between the surface pressure of the eye and eyewall dropsonde (just thinking aloud here)?

[marye45]

Did anybody see the guy who was being interviewed by Cantore? He's staying because he rode out Jeanne and made modifications to his house so it's now like a bunker. He didn't seem like it was a big deal.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

[Hurricaneman]

Did anybody see the guy who was being interviewed by Cantore? He's staying because he rode out Jeanne and made modifications to his house so it's now like a bunker. He didn't seem like it was a big deal.

That guy's an idiot, this will be much worse

[Chris_in_Tampa]

I wonder why they used the extrapolation for this VDM. It looks like an eye dropsonde was available for use. Maybe because there was only a single mb difference between the surface pressure of the eye and eyewall dropsonde (just thinking aloud here)?

The vortex was marked as:

PRELIMINARY, DO NOT RETRANSMIT

My recon system still uses the data though. It just updates when the final is available. They didn't have the sonde data yet. I'm not sure why they have not updated it yet. They likely will.

[GCANE]

High Def Radar Link:

http://weather.graphics/mrms/florida/fl ... r_long.gif

[marionstorm]

Don't know if it is important but the lightning in the eyewall continues sporadically. One just struck right off Nassau's southern coast.

[lovingseason2013]

So serious question. Looks like we will get the eye over my house in Merritt island, fl as a cat 4. We boarded up, braced the garage door, cleaned up. Pretty much everything we can do. The house is block house. Do .you guys think it will still be there when we get home? Is a cat 4 pretty much garunteed to take the roof off?? What can I expect?

Sounds like you've done everything you can.

Whether the house and/or roof is "still there" is really not a question that can be answered. Sometimes the best built house will just get hit with enough wind (or tornado) and come apart. Other times, some of the most dilapidated homes seem to withstand it!

If it's built to latest building codes, it's better able to withstand the onslaught.

Good luck to you.

You will most likely go home to a moldy mess, the house will stand most likely, but it just takes a small section of roof to come off and leak into the house and that will ruin everything because you probably will not get to clean up the water for several days, and if you get storm surf intrusion it will be of the nastiest water and mud you have ever encountered, and the smell will not come out of anything it touches. I lived in a block home on Pensacola Beach when Ivan hit and pretty much anything left in the house was ruined. Hoopefully you took all the clothes and artwork out of there because those for sure will be unsalvageable most likely.

[CrazyC83]

If that eyewall gradient is maintained to the eye, that would support about 931mb, but that is likely an overestimate at this time.

[Jevo]

Looks like the Northerly wobble has finished and Matthew is back on previous heading over the last 3 frames.. Current motion would put a landfall over north Andros

[Agua]

and as bad as experiencing a major storm will be, the aftermath will even be worse..

THIS. It's horrible. Pioneer times without the tools or experience to live that way.

[windnrain]

Much more lightning in eyewall.

[1900hurricane]

Listed as 115 kt/940 mb in the 12Z update of the trackfile.

[Stangfriik]

I'm watching a live feed from nasau and they are just east of the eyewall yet no boats are moving, no surge, and no structural damage. What will be the difference between here and there?

[Chris_in_Tampa]

If that eyewall gradient is maintained to the eye, that would support about 931mb, but that is likely an overestimate at this time.

The preliminary vortex has not been updated. Sondes measure the pressure, so maybe they doubt the surface pressure in one of them? I don't know.

The high wind sonde didn't look out of the ordinary though, like it does when there is a mistake. Also forgot to post this part:

Average Wind Over Lowest Available 150 geopotential meters (gpm) of the sounding:
- Lowest 150m: 164 gpm - 14 gpm (538 geo. feet - 46 geo. feet)
- Wind Direction: 165° (from the SSE)
- Wind Speed: 143 knots (165 mph

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Man this thing is ramping up. Prayers for those in the path. Nothing to stop it now.