ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[SoupBone]

Any damage reports out of Nassau? They are getting the worst of the worst of this system.

[Agua]

Praying for all you folks.

[tolakram]

visible loop

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=25&lon=-78&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=20&mapcolor=yellow

latest

[TropicalSailor]

Any damage reports out of Nassau? They are getting the worst of the worst of this system.

Kevin Bente (@KBente95) on Twitter is right on the eyewall and getting impressive video.

[HurrMark]

west end of Nassau just barely scrapping the eyewall.. they might have lucked out..

I don't know about lucked out, since it's only a ten mile long island...but indeed most of the development is on the east end. I have cousins who live on Nassau...they are secure, so hopefully they are OK.

[dhweather]

:

Doesn't the stronger it gets the more west it goes?

I've never heard that. I have heard stronger canes going poleward.

Neither is accurate. The strength of the hurricane has little to do with the direction of the hurricane. Other systems, typically surface high pressure and upper level lows dictate the direction of a hurricane.

[Aric Dunn]

THe station on grand bahama island will be the next one to watch.. likely take the full force of the eyewall later today

[supercane4867]

Winds barely reached sustained hurricane force at Nassau Airport. It seems most of the city is spared

[FLLurker32]

Just watched Bastardi. He's going with a system deeper than the 939mb, lowest it's been so far between Bahamas and Florida.

They take it in just about Jupiter as a Category 4 and exit the coast around Daytona as a Cat 2. That means essentially major hurricane conditions all along the East Central FL Atlantic Coast and whatever happens inland. If they're right, it's anywhere from a $10-20 billion storm. They then loop it back to off the SE Coast of FL in the atmospheric and oceanic "shadow" of where it was, so they don't think it will re-intensify and would then be a tropical storm. He cautioned, however, that the rainfall in South Carolina and North Carolina as Matthew fights with the trough is liable to be extreme and brought up I think it was Floyd styled processes.

This isn't good news for anyone living in that corridor (including Ft. Pierce, Melbourne, Titusville, Cape Canaveral and Canaveral Seashore, Palm Bay, Palm Coast, New Smyrna, Port St. Lucie, Daytona, Meritt Island, etc. and likely pretty rough in the eastern suburbs of Orlando (Seminole, Orange, Osceola & Lake Counties).

Hey, it's not my call. I'm just going on what they're saying. They are south of the Hurricane Center's Track and have it hitting at the lowest pressure it attains. FWIW, they also think Nicole will become a hurricane and that we'll have to watch 8-10 days in the Eastern Gulf/Western Caribbean for something coming underneath.

Struggling season indeed.

I said this a few pages back and I'll say it again. I'm in south center Marion county. My home is 60 miles directly west of Daytona Beach. There are A LOT of people here who are not leaving their manufactured homes because with the slightly offshore track we are only getting maybe 40-50mph winds. IF it tracks inland at all there will be a lot of people inland in trouble. So much focus is being put on the coast (As it should be since they're front lines and WILL get the worst of it) but I can't scream enough about how some of the Inland counties are not considering this could go inland. They're just not use to this risk here.

[jhpigott]

NWS Miami calling for wind gusts to 155mph in northern palm beach county tonight.... wow..just wow.

TodayTropical storm conditions expected, with hurricane conditions possible. Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could produce gusty winds and heavy rain. High near 85. Northeast wind 26 to 31 mph, with gusts as high as 44 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%.
TonightHurricane conditions expected. Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Some storms could be severe, with damaging winds and heavy rain. Low around 79. North wind 50 to 60 mph becoming northwest 110 to 130 mph. Winds could gust as high as 155 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%.

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lon=-80.07208728027346&lat=26.93528030654717#.V_ZVKdQrLs0

I live on the western edge of that forecast box. Craziness, pure madness

[marionstorm]

Recon has been out there a long time. How much longer is the mission?

[stormlover2013]

Rita wasn't fun........I evacuated 60 miles up north and you could hear tree's snapping all night, my buddy that stayed in a high school gym said it felt like the gym was going to collapsed so best bet is to get out!!

[Aric Dunn]

west end of Nassau just barely scrapping the eyewall.. they might have lucked out..

I don't know about lucked out, since it's only a ten mile long island...but indeed most of the development is on the east end. I have cousins who live on Nassau...they are secure, so hopefully they are OK.

Just meant that they did not get the inner portion of the eyewall. still getting major winds...

[JtSmarts]

Just watched Bastardi. He cautioned, however, that the rainfall in South Carolina and North Carolina as Matthew fights with the trough is liable to be extreme and brought up I think it was Floyd styled processes.

I do NOT like the sound of that, sounds similar to last October for us.

[SapphireSea]

Winds barely reached sustained hurricane force at Nassau Airport. It seems most of the city is spared

If true on the NE quad, then SW quad into WPB wont reach Hurr and Broward would barely reach TS sustained if it enters by Canaveral.

[Sanibel]

You can see ragged cotton puff clouds at the lower level going by over head here to the SSW. Blustery breezes from the NNE and a quilted storm disc layer of clouds whose edge is just to our West with blue sky over the Gulf. Glad to be mostly out of this game.

[tolakram]

saved radar loop

[N2FSU]

I've got a good friend who lives on the barrier island at Indialantic. Wisely, she and the family are leaving. However, their "evacuation" is to a relative's house 22 miles south to Roseland (just north of Sebastian). The house is about a mile west of the coastline. Her husband insists they will be fine. How do I convince him otherwise?

Ask him what they'll do if they spend a week without being able to get out of the driveway and two weeks without power. Does the house have a safe interior room that doesn't have a big tree leaning over it? Plenty of food and water on hand?

They'll be far safer a mile inland than on a barrier island obviously, so at least they're thinking about protecting their lives. But it's the aftermath that people never consider beyond a day or two. I would suggest you take that angle. Say that you are glad they're trying to be safe, but are they aware of how crappy the aftermath can be?

Thanks for the reply. I'll give it a shot.

[jasons2k]

Looking at GrLevel3 - it's tracking to the the right/east side of the forecast points at the moment.

Josh is updating from Nassau @ iCyclone on Twitter. Edit: Nothing in the last 2 hours; probably can't get anything out.

[HurrMark]

Winds barely reached sustained hurricane force at Nassau Airport. It seems most of the city is spared

I saw a 115 mph report on the west end earlier...not sure how accurate it is. But if that was a true assessment, I doubt the winds were that much weaker 5 miles to the east.