ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[HurricaneFrances04]

Thinking the core just misses me in Lake Worth, but prepared for the worst nevertheless. The southside of the storms looks quite large, so I imagine we'll still be getting a lot of rain, even after it passes.

[GCANE]

While Matthew is not clearing out its eye in a harry right now, the very warm waters of gulf stream will likely play a crucial role in strengthening like it did to Andrew.

Next SW to NE pass from recon should find much stronger winds. Absolutely dire situation for Florida

And it's worth noting that whereas Andrew cut across the gulf stream, this will be travelling along the stream. As such, the potential for additional intensification is certainly high. According to the latest advisory from the NHC, the maximum sustained winds are already at the 140 mph I predicted they would be by the time Matthew reached the Florida coast. Folks, I now think there's a very real possibility that we could be looking at a Cat 5 traversing a highly populated area. Pray that the eye stays offshore, because I've seen YouTube videos of Cat 5s blowing down concrete walls. So, if you can leave, leave. A house can be rebuilt, but a life ... well, I think you know what I was going to say next.

Good point. No upwelling since the Gulf Stream will be pumping hot water right into the eyewall.

[OntarioEggplant]

Just as a side note, I have to say I'm extremely disappointed as of late with seemingly every time we are in a critical situation with a storm, there is a reconnaissance plane with mechanical problems that has to abort their mission. I respect everything they do for us, but these problems seem to be increasing in frequency.

[Nimbus]

Not seeing much of anything here in Miami, a few passing showers.

What were the winds like in that first feeder band, any power outages?
I wouldn't want to evacuate if the traffic signals are out.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Is satellite imagery out of date for other people?

Out of date for me:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters.html
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/trop-atl.html

Okay on some other sites:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... opical.asp

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... olor=black

And there is radar.

[NDG]

 https://twitter.com/KBente95/status/784023122651459584

[marye45]

People are ripping that couple a new one on the TWC FB page.

[MississippiWx]

And like magic, the NW side of Matthew is much more symmetrical looking after it passed the rather large Andros Island. Not good.

[RL3AO]

Just as a side note, I have to say I'm extremely disappointed as of late with seemingly every time we are in a critical situation with a storm, there is a reconnaissance plane with mechanical problems that has to abort their mission. I respect everything they do for us, but these problems seem to be increasing in frequency.

We don't know if the plane is having more issues, or if the safety standards have increased where smaller issues lead to an aborted mission. Since we're not privy to this information, we shouldn't speculate.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Is satellite imagery out of date for other people?

Never mind, it works again.

[HurricaneFrances04]

I like watching the SFWMD for wobbles along the official track- http://www.sfwmd.gov/portal/page/portal ... %20loop%29

[1900hurricane]

The area of low reflectivity looks more related to Andros Island than dry air to me. Even on a lower resolution Metop pass (below), a layer of dry air would likely be noticeable.

[AussieStorm]

Hi all

Just checking in. I'm a long time reader/lurker due to my interest in storms and my son living in Florida. We arrived in West Palm last weekend to see our son who lives here, and are bunkerng down with friends. Can't believe our timing to come from Australia to this. House we are in (Lake worth) is new build concrete and all the shutters are up so fingers crossed and best wishes to everyone in the state affected, especially here in PBC.

[gatorcane]

I like watching the SFWMD for wobbles along the official track- http://www.sfwmd.gov/portal/page/portal ... %20loop%29

Right now looks to be going right around the northern end of Andros as if it is avoiding land, might be a WNW wobble in progress.

[Portastorm]

Hi all

Just checking in. I'm a long time reader/lurker due to my interest in storms and my son living in Florida. We arrived in West Palm last weekend to see our son who lives here, and are bunkerng down with friends. Can't believe our timing to come from Australia to this. House we are in (Lake worth) is new build concrete and all the shutters are up so fingers crossed and best wishes to everyone in the state affected, especially here in PBC.

Thanks for your post. Be safe. Our thoughts and prayers are with you and EVERYONE in the path of this extremely dangerous hurricane.

[supercane4867]

When does the next available recon is going to arrive? The satellite presentation is improving every minute

[alienstorm]

Rain band hitting Kendall now - afternoon Thunderstorms are stronger than this

[tolakram]

It pains me to see people comparing hurricanes to blizzards. They obviously don't understand that water kills more than wind.

saved radar loop

[TimeZone]

The area of low reflectivity looks more related to Andros Island than dry air to me. Even on a lower resolution Metop pass (below), a layer of dry air would likely be noticeable.

What the hell is wrong with it's core? It looks absolutely pathetic in that image.

[windnrain]

Latest MIMIC