ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[HurricaneFrances04]

I've been seeing an almost NNW motion on satellite now for the entirety of the time the visible has been available--what are the chances Florida escapes landfall by 100 miles or so? I don't see this suddenly bending that heavily back to the west at this point.

It's right on track, all wobbles aside.

http://www.sfwmd.gov/portal/page/portal ... %20loop%29

[Alyono]

Eye appears to be clearing out once again but the northern periphery of the CDO looks quite ragged.

Is it just me or does it look like it's taking in dry air?

Appears on radar to be forming a moat between inner and outer eyewall. For those who haven't heard of the moat it's a dry area between double eyewalls.

that secondary rainband is too far outside to allow for a quick eyewall replacement. This may not start until the storm is already onshore

[floridasun78]

I've been seeing an almost NNW motion on satellite now for the entirety of the time the visible has been available--what are the chances Florida escapes landfall by 100 miles or so? I don't see this suddenly bending that heavily back to the west at this point.

most models show a west wobble starting in an hour or so

we now see were going by miami radar

[MGC]

Yup, looks like a outer wind max is forming. Could have an EWRC soon. Winds will relax a bit but the wind field will expand increasing the wave and surge on the beach or rivers. With a larger eye, landfall is nearly a guarantee......MGC

[Batt2fd]

[cjrciadt]

Bunch of boats still at Port Canaveral!

[DelrayMorris]

Which ones, ConvergenceZone? I'd like to download them before I lose wi-fi

I just use the one "hurricane pro" for my IPhone, but just search for the word "hurricane" in the App Store or Google store and look at the details and reviews to see if it offers what you are looking for

DelrayMorris, I'd recommend HurricaneTrack.com's Mobile App. Mark Sudduth does a great job with his reporting and he get's live video feeds that are streamed to the App.

Thank you to both of you!

[marionstorm]

Is it just me or does it look like it's taking in dry air?

Appears on radar to be forming a moat between inner and outer eyewall. For those who haven't heard of the moat it's a dry area between double eyewalls.

that secondary rainband is too far outside to allow for a quick eyewall replacement. This may not start until the storm is already onshore

If it develops two eyewalls would that expand the hurricane winds?

[Dave C]

True Alyono, and gulf stream waters would probably help support double eyewall structure as well?

[floridasun78]

nasa could be so damage next man mission may not happen untill 2020 or later

[bqknight]

Does anyone see anything that would cause it to weaken?

[Hurricaneman]

True Aloyna, and gulf stream waters would probably help support double eyewall structure as well?

It would also make the intensity forecast by the NHC look good

[Hurricaneman]

Does anyone see anything that would cause it to weaken?

ERC aka eyewall replacement cycle

[crimi481]

The ridge to its north may keep it more wnw soon.

[SFLcane]

Ouch! Nbc6 morales giving the all clear in dade and broward and Rick knabb contredicting eveything he said saying to respect warnings. The was crazy to see

[gatorcane]

I've been seeing an almost NNW motion on satellite now for the entirety of the time the visible has been available--what are the chances Florida escapes landfall by 100 miles or so? I don't see this suddenly bending that heavily back to the west at this point.

most models show a west wobble starting in an hour or so

Looks like a WNW wobble might be starting now looking at radar

[jlauderdal]

Ouch! Nbc6 morales giving the all clear in dade and broward and Rick knabb contredicting eveything he said saying to respect warnings. The was crazy to see

i saw it too, lets see how the track works next few hours...radar shows it should be raining in my area...its completely dry...winds are picking up

[floridasun78]

we dont need wnw that take more to north broward or southern plambeach gave dade stronger wind

[supercane4867]

That double eyewall structure looks far from completion, let alone inducing any weakening before landfall

[ncweatherwizard]

I strongly suspect we are seeing mesoscale subsidence (i.e. a moat) around the eyewall, as some folks have already said. The mid-level air there is, of course, drier than the surroundings, just like in an eye, but it doesn't look like any dry air is being entrained within the primary rainband. I still expect some slight weakening over the next few hours, but that does not decrease the threat to Florida at all.

To err on the side of caution, though, I imagine NHC will maintain 120kts as the intensity. I would until I was absolutely certain that the intensity were lower. It's all kind of a moot point anyway. We're still looking at a major hurricane regardless.