ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[OrlandoKnight]

So I realize everyone has to make best decision for themselves based on information available but curious for opinions...

We live in Orlando. House is a pretty solid block house, but it's an old neighborhood with a ton of massive, old/dead oaks. We get branches down around here with every summer storm. We have the option to head out to our in laws in Winter Garden. Not a massive change in location, but it is about 30 minutes west. Think we should be heading their way to ride out the storm just to be safe? I should add that we have a 6 month old, so obviously would have to pack up a ton of crap to be prepared for multiple days away with her. Thoughts?

[dhweather]

124mph on KAMX - Miami doppler , and that's 138 miles out from the radar site.

[1900hurricane]

As of the moment, the outer eyewall has a radius of 38 miles/diameter of 76 miles. With an outer eyewall that large, I'd guess this is probably a 24 hour or so eyewall replacement if uninterrupted. The moat extends completely around the inner eyewall on 1.3* tilt now as well, so this eyewall replacement is going forward.

[Dave C]

Also see chunk out of northern CDO but radar presentation, especially outer eyewall looks pretty solid.

[meriland23]

So if this is a current eyewall replacement cycle that will take almost a day, does that mean it can't strengthen while doing so?

[Sanibel]

Also see chunk out of northern CDO but radar presentation, especially outer eyewall looks pretty solid.

Lower altitude cloud tops on radar.

[bg1]

As of the moment, the outer eyewall has a radius of 38 miles/diameter of 76 miles. With an outer eyewall that large, I'd guess this is probably a 24 hour or so eyewall replacement if uninterrupted. The moat extends completely around the inner eyewall on 1.3* tilt now as well, so this eyewall replacement is going forward.

How much do you think it will weaken, if at all?

[tolakram]

Moat starting to appear on visible.

[Sanibel]

So if this is a current eyewall replacement cycle that will take almost a day, does that mean it can't strengthen while doing so?

More likely maintain I would guess.

[TheStormExpert]

Feeling better with the trends this afternoon as for what to expect in NE Palm Beach County, minimal hurricane force winds seems to be the worst ATM.

[Aric Dunn]

the edge of the outer eyewall is just starting to get to grand bahama..

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=spgf1 winds picking up quickly.

[Alyono]

very surprising to see these latest developments with the secondary eyewall

[tarheelprogrammer]

Moat starting to appear on visible.

What does that mean?

[GCANE]

Northern portion of the new eyewall becoming distinct on VIS

[Dee Bee]

Just checking in here from Vero Beach, FL. We are located about 12-15 miles SW inland from the island. Our house is shuttered; we will deploy inside reinforcement to the garage door as soon as the day progresses. Our supplies are stocked, and we have a whole-house generator. I'm very anxious about the reality of Cat 4 hurricane force winds, no matter how prepared we are. This I my fourth hurricane since moving to FL in 2000, although I lived in southern Palm Beach County before moving to Vero Beach in 2013. Wilma was dangerous, but I understand that Matthew can be devastating. I'll check in again on S2K as communications allow. Please keep everyone along the east central FL coast in positive energy. I am open to miracles!

[swampgator92]

very surprising to see these latest developments with the secondary eyewall

What do you think the winds are in the secondary eyewall?

[Nederlander]

Moat starting to appear on visible.

What does that mean?

The moat is the area between the two eyewalls.. It is essentially the new eye and eventually the inner eyewall will dissipate..

[Portastorm]

Just checking in here from Vero Beach, FL. We are located about 12-15 miles SW inland from the island. Our house is shuttered; we will deploy inside reinforcement to the garage door as soon as the day progresses. Our supplies are stocked, and we have a whole-house generator. I'm very anxious about the reality of Cat 4 hurricane force winds, no matter how prepared we are. This I my fourth hurricane since moving to FL in 2000, although I lived in southern Palm Beach County before moving to Vero Beach in 2013. Wilma was dangerous, but I understand that Matthew can be devastating. I'll check in again on S2K as communications allow. Please keep everyone along the east central FL coast in positive energy. I am open to miracles!

Props to you for being so well prepared! We wish all the positive energy, good karma, and miracles your way (and to your fellow Floridians)

[KC7NEC]

So I realize everyone has to make best decision for themselves based on information available but curious for opinions...

We live in Orlando. House is a pretty solid block house, but it's an old neighborhood with a ton of massive, old/dead oaks. We get branches down around here with every summer storm. We have the option to head out to our in laws in Winter Garden. Not a massive change in location, but it is about 30 minutes west. Think we should be heading their way to ride out the storm just to be safe? I should add that we have a 6 month old, so obviously would have to pack up a ton of crap to be prepared for multiple days away with her. Thoughts?

I've posted it several times. If you are asking the question then you are not prepared enough to stay.

[Hammy]

There's been a now steady NNW motion for the last several hours and it looks like this is going to go right over the middle of Abaco, and I'm starting to feel confident this will miss the state to the east by about 70-80 miles, though everybody in it's forecast path should continue to operate under the assumption of landfall.