ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

very surprising to see these latest developments with the secondary eyewall

What do you think the winds are in the secondary eyewall?

very likely pushing hurricane force.

looking up a little. radar estimates are 80kts or so.. given some reduction likely right around hurricane force

[ZX12R]

very surprising to see these latest developments with the secondary eyewall

If the inner one collapses then clears out, Matthew will be shocking to look at.

[Hurricaneman]

very surprising to see these latest developments with the secondary eyewall

What do you think the winds are in the secondary eyewall?

I'm no pro but I wouldn't be surprised if its 100kts in the outer eyewall

[1900hurricane]

As of the moment, the outer eyewall has a radius of 38 miles/diameter of 76 miles. With an outer eyewall that large, I'd guess this is probably a 24 hour or so eyewall replacement if uninterrupted. The moat extends completely around the inner eyewall on 1.3* tilt now as well, so this eyewall replacement is going forward.

How much do you think it will weaken, if at all?

At the time, I doubt Matthew would be able to maintain a category 4 intensity deep into eyewall replacement. However, a large high-end category 2 or category 3 would still be a very detrimental impact.

[WPBWeather]

Feeling better with the trends this afternoon as for what to expect in NE Palm Beach County, minimal hurricane force winds seems to be the worst ATM.

Not certain this is correct. Don't assume anything yet.

[Nederlander]

very surprising to see these latest developments with the secondary eyewall

If the inner one collapses then clears out, Matthew will be shocking to look at.

He should weaken at that point

[NativeFloridaGirl]

So Port St Lucie is off the hook?? That will be the best news ever! I'm worried about my son there.

[ronjon]

There's been a now steady NNW motion for the last several hours and it looks like this is going to go right over the middle of Abaco, and I'm starting to feel confident this will miss the state to the east by about 70-80 miles, though everybody in it's forecast path should continue to operate under the assumption of landfall.

Check back in 6 hours and let's see if you're still correct. These systems stair step.

[Dave C]

As of the moment, the outer eyewall has a radius of 38 miles/diameter of 76 miles. With an outer eyewall that large, I'd guess this is probably a 24 hour or so eyewall replacement if uninterrupted. The moat extends completely around the inner eyewall on 1.3* tilt now as well, so this eyewall replacement is going forward.

Reminds me of Jeanne in 2005 as she was making landfall, huge outer eyewall.

[GCANE]

Helicity picking up over the SE corner of the state.
Watch out for any strong cells in that area.
Tornadoes may be embedded in them.

[OrlandoKnight]

So I realize everyone has to make best decision for themselves based on information available but curious for opinions...

We live in Orlando. House is a pretty solid block house, but it's an old neighborhood with a ton of massive, old/dead oaks. We get branches down around here with every summer storm. We have the option to head out to our in laws in Winter Garden. Not a massive change in location, but it is about 30 minutes west. Think we should be heading their way to ride out the storm just to be safe? I should add that we have a 6 month old, so obviously would have to pack up a ton of crap to be prepared for multiple days away with her. Thoughts?

I've posted it several times. If you are asking the question then you are not prepared enough to stay.

Neither house (ours or in laws) is shuttered/boarded up, which is true of just about every house around here. We are prepared in every other way. Just nervous about the trees here and wondering if it's worth the effort to be 30 minutes west or if that's just not a huge difference.

[PTrackerLA]

very surprising to see these latest developments with the secondary eyewall

What might this mean for impacts along the coast?

[AdamFirst]

NOBODY IS "OFF THE HOOK" YET

Can we stop with all of this projection until the storm is beyond the area? Please?

[stephen23]

To me it appears the new eyewall is still on a 317 degree heading while the old eyewall is losing control and heading more north as it is being choked out. Don't see anything yet that shows this is not still headed towards Florida landfall.

[Portastorm]

So Port St Lucie is off the hook?? That will be the best news ever! I'm worried about my son there.

No. DO NOT MAKE THAT ASSUMPTION!

This is the problem with posters here making pronouncements about this hurricane "missing the state." Like it or not folks, there are thousands of people reading your posts. They may make assumptions like this with your amateur reasonings and statements. Please think twice before you hit the "Submit" button.

[tolakram]

Moat starting to appear on visible.

[im g]http://i.imgur.com/CS1ZfGm.jpg[/img]

What does that mean?

That outer band will be the new eyewall, and it should shrink down some but right now it's huge. The main concern is surge at this point because the bigger the eye the more water is being pushed around and the more damage this thing can do, IMO. Think Ike with it's huge broad wind field and it was "only" a cat 2. Another reason I've ranted numerous times that the saffir simpson scale is so limited when reflecting actual risk to life and property. Katrina went through this as well.

This is one of the reasons I'm so touchy about people minimizing risk when an ERC happens. We don't know what this means yet, all we know is that most models continue to show a powerful hurricane hitting Florida. Hopefully they are all wrong, but the bigger the eye the greater the chance part of the eyewall goes onshore.

[bahamaswx]

There's been a now steady NNW motion for the last several hours and it looks like this is going to go right over the middle of Abaco, and I'm starting to feel confident this will miss the state to the east by about 70-80 miles, though everybody in it's forecast path should continue to operate under the assumption of landfall.

You mean Freeport. Abaco is the island NE of him.

Freeport stands a good chance of being cut in half by storm surge from Matthew. Has nearly happened several times in the past.

[WPBWeather]

So Port St Lucie is off the hook?? That will be the best news ever! I'm worried about my son there.

Take your pick, unfortunately. Everybody is posting all sorts of opinions here.

[fox13weather]

There's been a now steady NNW motion for the last several hours and it looks like this is going to go right over the middle of Abaco, and I'm starting to feel confident this will miss the state to the east by about 70-80 miles, though everybody in it's forecast path should continue to operate under the assumption of landfall.

YOU are feeling confident?? Whewww.....thank goodness

[Hypercane_Kyle]

There's been a now steady NNW motion for the last several hours and it looks like this is going to go right over the middle of Abaco, and I'm starting to feel confident this will miss the state to the east by about 70-80 miles, though everybody in it's forecast path should continue to operate under the assumption of landfall.

You shouldn't feel confident about this motion at all. It's more likely the inner eyewall is being effected by the outer eyewall. The overall motion of the storm appears constant to me.