ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[stephen23]

Severe thunderstorm warnings starting to pop up on Florida west coast

[Hypercane_Kyle]

 https://twitter.com/capitalweather/status/784097269998026752

wow, that would be catastrophic for Merritt Island... geesh...

GOES-R is on the launch pad too.

http://www.goes-r.gov/

They've moved GOES-R to a bomb bunker.

[ronyan]

winds increasing fast on grand bahama... and its just scraping the edge of that outer eyewall. going to get crazy there in the next few hours..

I also noticed that. There may be quite high velocities building in the outer wall.

[Nate-Gillson]

winds increasing fast on grand bahama... and its just scraping the edge of that outer eyewall. going to get crazy there in the next few hours..

And the western portion of Grand Bahama is going to get destroyed by the inner eyewall with mid range EF3 winds.

[meriland23]

You guys need to stop arguing over something you don't know. You don't know if it will hit, or miss, or if the shift is a blip or not. Really guys, if it'll miss, it'll be by the skin of your teeth and not worth debating whether to stay or go over. This will likely hit somewhere despite, which is what is important. Keep a eye on the current status and rely on that, try not to predict things. It is important to focus on the intensity on radar right now more than ever.

[dhweather]

Remember, Hurricane Charley made a hard right turn just hours before landfall when it was expected to go further up the coast. It also intensified from a category 2 to a category 4 in a single advisory. How many people were calling an all clear for Port Charlotte at the time?

How quickly people forget this lesson from mother nature.


If you are under a hurricane warning, you need to prepare for the worst and hope for the best. Don't assume "it should go North of me", one wobble left and your world could dramatically change.

[dukeblue219]

Can we just flat-out disallow any kind of "my gut feeling says this" kinds of posts? It is extremely irresponsible and misleading. I really appreciate the activity of this forum, but the more of a threat it is, the more people will be making these kinds of "gut feeling" proclamations.

THIS IS STILL WITHIN THE CONE. There was ALWAYS the possibility that it could stay offshore and the NHC has made that very clear in their statements. BUT SHORT TERM MOVEMENTS DO NOT MEAN IT'S GOING TO MISS THE FORECAST POINTS. HURRICANE TRACKING IS NOT AN EXACT SCIENCE.

It is SO much more useful to everyone if posters include a little context, a few numbers, or a location to their statements. An amateur (like myself) who posts that the central pressure has been consistent over several flights, or that the 18z GFS has shifted slightly east off of a particular city, or that the radar shows a steady motion of X degrees over the last 8 frames is contributing positively. The posts that are dangerous at a time like this are the ones that say "wow, explosive strengthening is obvious" or "good news, model went east" with zero context or data behind it.

Anyway, I'm new to posting here, I don't make the rules. But that's how I see it, particularly in "hurricane mode." I recommend not posting gut feelings, emotional reactions to scientific measurements, or the assignment of personality to storms (Matthew just wants to be a cat 5 again) please.

[hurricaneCW]

Here's what I see happening:

Hammy is correct that the overall movement of the inner eyewall last few hours has been moving east of the forecast points. However, looking at the new, developing outer eyewall it appears the motion is on track. It's not unusual for the inner eye to be jerked around by the outer during an EWRC.

That's a perfect representation of what is likely going on.

[GCANE]

 https://twitter.com/capitalweather/status/784097269998026752

wow, that would be catastrophic for Merritt Island... geesh...

GOES-R is on the launch pad too.

http://www.goes-r.gov/

"In advance of Hurricane Matthew’s potential path to Florida’s east coast, the team preparing NOAA’s GOES-R spacecraft for launch has taken appropriate safety measures to secure the satellite at its present location — Astrotech Space Operations in Titusville, Fla.," Leslie said in a statement to Mashable.

http://mashable.com/2016/10/05/weather- ... 1Gc_O_qOq8

[ZX12R]

I'm looking forward to recon data, for several reasons, but I'd like to know Matthew's current forward speed. It looks to me like he has slowed down in the last 3 hours or so.

[HurricaneEric]

There's been a now steady NNW motion for the last several hours and it looks like this is going to go right over the middle of Abaco, and I'm starting to feel confident this will miss the state to the east by about 70-80 miles, though everybody in it's forecast path should continue to operate under the assumption of landfall.

Sorry Hammy, your statement is not horrible but it's a good example of something that needlessly riles up folks looking for information.

Everyone

THIS IS NOT THE TIME FOR AMATEUR PROCLAMATIONS.

We are in storm mode and those kinds of statements just fill the thread with questions or arguments and don't add any value. Everyone worries that someone reading something like this may make a bad decision based on an amateur analysis. Please just avoid making these kinds of statements.

Isn't this the reason for the disclaimer? Not to mention, Hammy mentioned that anyone within its predicted path should operate the same way as if it were to landfall.

[EquusStorm]

Outer eyewall appears to be closing relatively quickly as the inner eyewall continues to weaken. It might have a shot at finishing the cycle before landfall, but I doubt it will fully contract in the short amount of time it has. Unless it stays way offshore, which I doubt.

[WPBWeather]

You guys need to stop arguing over something you don't know. You don't know if it will hit, or miss, or if the shift is a blip or not. Really guys, if it'll miss, it'll be by the skin of your teeth and not worth debating whether to stay or go over. This will likely hit somewhere despite, which is what is important. Keep a eye on the current status and rely on that, try not to predict things. It is important to focus on the intensity on radar right now more than ever.

Yes, unfortunately some long time posters here are unintentionally putting out all clears or don't worries when they should not.

[CourierPR]

Just saying if people side with a non hit they get flack. Curious of why this is???

I think it is irresponsible when folks come on here and trumpet the all clear signal when there are still warnings posted in the affected area.

[Frank P]

wow, that would be catastrophic for Merritt Island... geesh...

GOES-R is on the launch pad too.

http://www.goes-r.gov/

They've moved GOES-R to a bomb bunker.

Been to KSC many times, it is not much above sea level.... always amazed me that they even built it so low to the ground... this if it comes to fruition is a worse case scenario for KSC and the Cape... damage will be tremendous, probably every building will be affected by surge.... along with most of the buildings which probably not rated for more than 110 mph at best... I sure hope something happens and this storm goes more east than expected, being a long time employee of the Shuttle and Delta IV program, I really hate to see this happening to our space program... prayers to all affected... good luck.. and so glad I have a seat 550 miles away...

[StormHunter72]

Never expected this from searches of sites

[Frank P]

GOES-R is on the launch pad too.

http://www.goes-r.gov/

They've moved GOES-R to a bomb bunker.

Been to KSC many times, it is not much above sea level.... always amazed me that they even built it so low to the ground... this if it comes to fruition is a worse case scenario for KSC and the Cape... damage will be tremendous, probably every building will be affected by surge.... along with most of the buildings which probably not rated for more than 110 mph winds at best... I sure hope something happens and this storm goes more east than expected, being a long time employee of the Shuttle and Delta IV program, I really hate to see this happening to our space program... prayers to all affected... good luck.. and so glad I have a seat 550 miles away...

[dhweather]

Just saying if people side with a non hit they get flack. Curious of why this is???

I think it is irresponsible when folks come on here and trumpet the all clear signal when there are still warnings posted in the affected area.

Exactly. You are all clear when the NHC takes down all warnings. If you are in a hurricane warned area and it misses you, then consider yourself lucky.

[Tireman4]

Just saying if people side with a non hit they get flack. Curious of why this is???

I think it is irresponsible when folks come on here and trumpet the all clear signal when there are still warnings posted in the affected area.

Agreed. We have lots of folks who either contribute, lurk or both. They do take almost every post to heart and have based their decisions on such. Hence, the disclaimer.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

[jlauderdal]

Severe thunderstorm warnings starting to pop up on Florida west coast

thats more intense than anything happening in broward county right now...local media really struggling finding something to cover