ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#8741 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Oct 06, 2016 2:20 pm

SW outer eyewall is just about hurricane force now.. NE outer eyewall likely much higher.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#8742 Postby Raebie » Thu Oct 06, 2016 2:22 pm

OK, can we all just let this go? We have recon going in, are in the middle of an ERC and it's getting tiresome weeding through crap bickering posts. And now you've made me add one. :-)
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#8743 Postby fci » Thu Oct 06, 2016 2:22 pm

dhweather wrote:
bob rulz wrote:
Remember, Hurricane Charley made a hard right turn just hours before landfall when it was expected to go further up the coast. It also intensified from a category 2 to a category 4 in a single advisory. How many people were calling an all clear for Port Charlotte at the time?



How quickly people forget this lesson from mother nature.


If you are under a hurricane warning, you need to prepare for the worst and hope for the best. Don't assume "it should go North of me", one wobble left and your world could dramatically change.


And that is why we have our shutters up as does pretty much my entire neighborhood.
When the NHC puts up a Hurricane Warning there is a lot of responsibility there and the ramifications are huge.
So they don't do this lightly.
I felt the whole time "gut feeling" that Matthew would be east of us far enough to not be in the eyewall.
I didn't make a pronouncement about it because I was "Guessing". Don't take that to the bank.
So, we are prepared and if we get away with minimal effects below Hurricane strength then I will be thrilled.
I won't be mad that the NHC put up a Hurricane Warning.
They saw the strong chance of my area being "hit" and I trust them.
Finally, enough with the "I said it would do this or that".
If someone predicted correctly, congratulations, you got lucky.
You have ZERO control over what will happen.
You are NOT a GENIUS.
You got lucky.

Just like I hope we get lucky with Matthew, but we are ready if we don't.

(Stepping off soap box and enjoying last few hours of electricity and air conditioning and Internet!)
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#8744 Postby bqknight » Thu Oct 06, 2016 2:22 pm

Just an FYI to the people saying this is going to the east, it may very well, however, models, such as the HRRR are forecasting this north job as well, before a more NW jog again.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#8745 Postby Portastorm » Thu Oct 06, 2016 2:22 pm

StormHunter72 wrote:Just saying if people side with a non hit they get flack. Curious of why this is???


Last post from this moderator on this topic. We are doing our best to focus this discussion on facts and scientific observations. We also cracked down earlier this week on people hyping Matthew into a apocalyptic disaster. Opinions are welcomed but keep in mind, as I have already written, that thousands of people are reading your opinions. And, whether we all like it or not, they are forming opinions which may or may not impact their life or the lives of friends or family members. It's all well and good for people to write "well, that's their problem." It may be ... but it won't be OUR problem on this forum as we are enforcing such things. We want everyone in harm's way to listen to authorities, local NWS, and the National Hurricane Center. Anything beyond that should be read, considered, and taken for what it's worth -- an amateur opinion. No offense to anyone here but posts like these and times like these, I feel, require an explanation since some of you are criticizing us for being heavyhanded.

Now let's get back to Matthew. Please. Otherwise I will start liberally using the delete function.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#8746 Postby dhweather » Thu Oct 06, 2016 2:23 pm

Raebie wrote:OK, can we all just let this go? We have recon going in, are in the middle of an ERC and it's getting tiresome weeding through crap bickering posts. And now you've made me add one. :-)


Why should we let FACTS from recon get in the way of hypothetical debates? :lol: :lol: :lol:
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#8747 Postby Steve » Thu Oct 06, 2016 2:23 pm

Hypercane_Kyle wrote:Here's what I see happening:

Hammy is correct that the overall movement of the inner eyewall last few hours has been moving east of the forecast points. However, looking at the new, developing outer eyewall it appears the motion is on track. It's not unusual for the inner eye to be jerked around by the outer during an EWRC.


No doubt. And you can see the general satellite motion and radar presentation. If it only gets 80 miles from the coast, I'll send a $25.00 donation in on Monday. If not, it's after payday.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#8748 Postby Tireman4 » Thu Oct 06, 2016 2:23 pm

Raebie wrote:OK, can we all just let this go? We have recon going in, are in the middle of an ERC and it's getting tiresome weeding through crap bickering posts. And now you've made me add one. :-)



Gotcha..he ha ...yeah, back to the task at hand.....I have kin folks in Ft. Lauderdale...they seem to know what they are doing...
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#8749 Postby AdamFirst » Thu Oct 06, 2016 2:23 pm

jlauderdal wrote:
stephen23 wrote:Severe thunderstorm warnings starting to pop up on Florida west coast
thats more intense than anything happening in broward county right now...local media really struggling finding something to cover


WSVN has Steve Shapiro, the sports reporter, on Fort Lauderdale Beach passing out hats to people still on the beach :lol:
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#8750 Postby bahamaswx » Thu Oct 06, 2016 2:25 pm

Extrapolated pressure 936mb

Edit: 121kt FL, 107kt SFMR. Mostly holding steady
Last edited by bahamaswx on Thu Oct 06, 2016 2:25 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#8751 Postby 1900hurricane » Thu Oct 06, 2016 2:25 pm

The outer eyewall is clear as day from recon. Spikes in flight level winds, SFMR values, rain rates, and a slight inflection in surface pressure estimates can all be seen on the trace.

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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#8752 Postby stephen23 » Thu Oct 06, 2016 2:26 pm

bahamaswx wrote:Extrapolated pressure 936mb

Edit: 121kt FL, 107kt SFMR. Mostly holding steady

Pretty impressive to hold steady with this large eyewall replacement.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#8753 Postby idaknowman » Thu Oct 06, 2016 2:28 pm

Is the UKMET the same as the GFS? :?: I don't see UKMET on the tropicaltidbits site, which I believe many of the posters here are referring to.

By the way, it is fascinating to watch the apparent eye wall replacement cycle on the Miami radar.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#8754 Postby stormlover2013 » Thu Oct 06, 2016 2:29 pm

Hopefully MAtthew just rides off the coast and never comes onshore!!
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#8755 Postby Tireman4 » Thu Oct 06, 2016 2:29 pm

AdamFirst wrote:
jlauderdal wrote:
stephen23 wrote:Severe thunderstorm warnings starting to pop up on Florida west coast
thats more intense than anything happening in broward county right now...local media really struggling finding something to cover


WSVN has Steve Shapiro, the sports reporter, on Fort Lauderdale Beach passing out hats to people still on the beach :lol:


Well, isnt that special. LOL. Meanwhile, on South Beach....it is just fine....:)...Folks are enjoying the day...

http://www.surfline.com/surf-report/sou ... rida_5366/
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#8756 Postby Steve » Thu Oct 06, 2016 2:29 pm

Tireman4 wrote:
CourierPR wrote:
StormHunter72 wrote:Just saying if people side with a non hit they get flack. Curious of why this is???


I think it is irresponsible when folks come on here and trumpet the all clear signal when there are still warnings posted in the affected area.



Agreed. We have lots of folks who either contribute, lurk or both. They do take almost every post to heart and have based their decisions on such. Hence, the disclaimer.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.


No. Read the board. The disclaimer is useless, legally and otherwise. People just need to use common sense and specify things in a manner that is respectful instead of authoritarian. She may be right, she may not be. Just don't be cocky about it and things will be fine. This is nothing but a tool and the place we all hang for storms. That's all it should be. Get your info from the NOAA/NWS. Everyone over the age of 10 ought to know this by now. I'm done arguing the points. Let's do the storm. And if someone puts reasoning behind what they thing rather than just saying it (e.g., I think it's going to miss point x because of y as opposed to hey woo, all clear here!), things would be better. No one on here is a dummy, though some have hard heads.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#8757 Postby Alyono » Thu Oct 06, 2016 2:30 pm

that is one weak secondary wind max from the aircraft data
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#8758 Postby jlauderdal » Thu Oct 06, 2016 2:30 pm

AdamFirst wrote:
jlauderdal wrote:
stephen23 wrote:Severe thunderstorm warnings starting to pop up on Florida west coast
thats more intense than anything happening in broward county right now...local media really struggling finding something to cover


WSVN has Steve Shapiro, the sports reporter, on Fort Lauderdale Beach passing out hats to people still on the beach :lol:


marketing opportunity for channel 7...broward mayor was telling people roads are closed at 3 yet wsvn is passing hats out too people on the beach...plenty of cars out driving is the reality..lets hope the effects under achieve
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#8759 Postby WilmingtonSandbar » Thu Oct 06, 2016 2:30 pm

HurricaneEric wrote:
tolakram wrote:
Hammy wrote:There's been a now steady NNW motion for the last several hours and it looks like this is going to go right over the middle of Abaco, and I'm starting to feel confident this will miss the state to the east by about 70-80 miles, though everybody in it's forecast path should continue to operate under the assumption of landfall.


Sorry Hammy, your statement is not horrible but it's a good example of something that needlessly riles up folks looking for information.

Everyone

THIS IS NOT THE TIME FOR AMATEUR PROCLAMATIONS.

We are in storm mode and those kinds of statements just fill the thread with questions or arguments and don't add any value. Everyone worries that someone reading something like this may make a bad decision based on an amateur analysis. Please just avoid making these kinds of statements.


Isn't this the reason for the disclaimer? Not to mention, Hammy mentioned that anyone within its predicted path should operate the same way as if it were to landfall.



They took the disclaimer requirement away this year. Frankly, when I saw they did that, I saw the increase of the "I thinks" happening. Before, we felt we needed a little back up to what we were posting, now we can just post our "gut feelings" without having to worry if our gut is backed up with factual information. I suggest a return to the disclaimers next year.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#8760 Postby Tireman4 » Thu Oct 06, 2016 2:30 pm

Steve wrote:
Tireman4 wrote:
CourierPR wrote:
I think it is irresponsible when folks come on here and trumpet the all clear signal when there are still warnings posted in the affected area.



Agreed. We have lots of folks who either contribute, lurk or both. They do take almost every post to heart and have based their decisions on such. Hence, the disclaimer.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.


No. Read the board. The disclaimer is useless, legally and otherwise. People just need to use common sense and specify things in a manner that is respectful instead of authoritarian. She may be right, she may not be. Just don't be cocky about it and things will be fine. This is nothing but a tool and the place we all hang for storms. That's all it should be. Get your info from the NOAA/NWS. Everyone over the age of 10 ought to know this by now. I'm done arguing the points. Let's do the storm. And if someone puts reasoning behind what they thing rather than just saying it (e.g., I think it's going to miss point x because of y as opposed to hey woo, all clear here!), things would be better. No one on here is a dummy, though some have hard heads.


I know. I know. I was just trying to simplify it...for the folks...:)
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