ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[SoupBone]

It certainly looks like it is taking more of the right (east) side of NHC cone. It could always wobble back west but I am feeling pretty good here in Palm Beach County. I doubt we lose power here in East Boca Raton. Perhaps the ridge is not quite as strong as the GFS and Euro thought.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

I know that we're all in wobble watch mode full time, but in those last few frames, there appears to be a pronounced eastward jog. Like others have said, it makes a difference now as to who eventually gets the full brunt of this system.

[blp]

From recon:

L. Eye Character: Closed Wall
M. Eye Shape: Concentric (has an inner and outer eye)
M. Inner Eye Diameter: 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles)
M. Outer Eye Diameter: 65 nautical miles (75 statute miles)

Thank you so confirmed by Recon. This is interesting now. That outer eye wall if it becomes established could impact a larger area if it continues NW.

[1900hurricane]

that is one weak secondary wind max from the aircraft data

Isn't this expected at this point? The outer eyewall hasn't existed for very long yet.

The pressure gradient is still quite small (relative to what is observed in the eyewall) in the primary rainband, so we'd expect the wind max to not stand out too much. We'd either need the pressure minimum to broaden near the center or the primary rainband to contract inward so that it is more closely located with the steep pressure gradient.

Yep, there is an inflection point seen on the pressure trace, but it doesn't stand out much compared to the pressure dive in the inner eyewall. Like I alluded to earlier, the outer eyewall hasn't existed for much time as of yet, so it would be pretty shocking to see it taking over as the primary eyewall so soon.

[NFLnut]

I don't want to be "that guy," but I definitely noticed a northerly jog the last couple of frames. Is it just a prolonged wobble, or a trend?

[marye45]

From recon:

L. Eye Character: Closed Wall
M. Eye Shape: Concentric (has an inner and outer eye)
M. Inner Eye Diameter: 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles)
M. Outer Eye Diameter: 65 nautical miles (75 statute miles)

Thank you so confirmed by Recon. This is interesting now. That outer eye wall if it becomes established could impact a larger area if it continues NW.

That's not good is it?

[bcargile]

I mostly just follow and read the posts, but appreciate this forum and all of these boards a great deal. Not sure why the Mods are jumping on the posters for stating opinions/ thoughts. Any poster should be able to say 'I see this thing swinging right out to sea' as easily as someone says 'I see it rapidly intensifying and hitting downtown Daytona'. I find the selective criticism hypocritical. That's what is done on message boards. Anyone here looking for official guidance is in the wrong spot- go to NHC.

Here's to more great discussion, information sharing, and hopefully no landfall for Matthew!

[Alyono]

looking at the outer eyewall, it's making steady westward progress. This is still moving NE overall. Should see a significant west wobble within the next 2 hours

[Aric Dunn]

I don't want to be "that guy," but I definitely noticed a northerly jog the last couple of frames. Is it just a prolonged wobble, or a trend?

During ERC the inner eye will start spinning around inside the outer eyewall. every now needs to start following the motion of that inner eye.. its GOING TO DO CIRCLE

[Frank P]

looking at the outer eyewall, it's making steady westward progress. This is still moving NE overall. Should see a significant west wobble within the next 2 hours

you mean NW

[CrazyC83]

3:20pm EDT splash of sonde:
941mb, 39 knots of surface wind

Translates to about 937mb.

[gatorcane]

looking at the outer eyewall, it's making steady westward progress. This is still moving NE overall. Should see a significant west wobble within the next 2 hours

Yeah I guess so. Seems the inner eye is just moving closer to the NE portion of the outer eye...the outer eye is moving NW, question will it wobble back west to get on track?

[blp]

looking at the outer eyewall, it's making steady westward progress. This is still moving NE overall. Should see a significant west wobble within the next 2 hours

You meant NW right? Outer eye wall is NW.

[Cuda17]

looking at the outer eyewall, it's making steady westward progress. This is still moving NE overall. Should see a significant west wobble within the next 2 hours

You mean "NW" not "NE" correct? Don't want anybody freaking out on you!

[Steve]

looking at the outer eyewall, it's making steady westward progress. This is still moving NE overall. Should see a significant west wobble within the next 2 hours

You mean Northwest. And I agree. The entire system is more important at the moment than the inner eyewall since we don't know what's ultimately going to happen with it. There is definitely some movement NNW of the inner eyewall, but look at the floater as a whole. It's pretty much a NW move. I just hope all those bands don't juice up at some point later as the closer-in ones rotate around.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

[CrazyC83]

This is serious stuff but...

I have a friend in Brevard County who lives in the storm surge zone. She is in her 30s and lives with her mother, but they have only their mother's car. I (and others) have been trying to convince them to evacuate, and time is definitely running out there, but her mother refuses to go anywhere - even though they haven't boarded up fully. I've known her for quite some time too. She wanted to leave but was stopped by her mother.

What should I do to try to help them? It's only a couple hours at most until conditions become too dangerous.

[NFLnut]

It certainly looks like it is taking more of the right (east) side of NHC cone. It could always wobble back west but I am feeling pretty good here in Palm Beach County. I doubt we lose power here in East Boca Raton. Perhaps the ridge is not quite as strong as the GFS and Euro thought.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

I know that we're all in wobble watch mode full time, but in those last few frames, there appears to be a pronounced eastward jog. Like others have said, it makes a difference now as to who eventually gets the full brunt of this system.

Noticing that too, and definitely NOT saying "hey look, Space Coast's in the clear." More like the fact that even a 20 mile jog to the right would be YUGE for the space coast, New Smyrna, Daytona and northward. People still should have evacuated though and I know a LOT of people in places like Merritt Island decided to ride it out which is a BAD idea!

[Frank P]

From recon:

L. Eye Character: Closed Wall
M. Eye Shape: Concentric (has an inner and outer eye)
M. Inner Eye Diameter: 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles)
M. Outer Eye Diameter: 65 nautical miles (75 statute miles)

Thank you so confirmed by Recon. This is interesting now. That outer eye wall if it becomes established could impact a larger area if it continues NW.

That's not good is it?

Nope, not good at all relative to storm surge, which could be as high as 11 feet above sea level... that would be biblical as far as FL is concerned.. in Biloxi where I live, it would barely get above the highway on the beach in front of my house... but that is apples and oranges in comparison... 11 feet in FL is the about the same effect as 25 feet in Biloxi...

[ronjon]

looks like the inner eyewall is collapsing and will be absorbed into the outer one soon.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0Z&rid=AMX&loop=yes

[Alyono]

looking at the outer eyewall, it's making steady westward progress. This is still moving NE overall. Should see a significant west wobble within the next 2 hours

You meant NW right? Outer eye wall is NW.

yes, NW

[Aric Dunn]

looking at the outer eyewall, it's making steady westward progress. This is still moving NE overall. Should see a significant west wobble within the next 2 hours

Yeah I guess so. Seems the inner eye is just moving closer to the NE portion of the outer eye...the outer eye is moving NW, question will it wobble back west to get on track?

it is on track. the inner should not be tracked like that any longer. overall system movement is still NW the inner should rotate back west then south in a circle