HURRICANE NICOLE SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016
200 PM AST THU OCT 06 2016
...NICOLE BECOMES A HURRICANE...
SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.3N 65.0W
ABOUT 345 MI...555 KM S OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 620 MI...995 KM N OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Nicole was located
near latitude 27.2 North, longitude 64.9 West. Nicole is moving
toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn toward the
north-northwest is expected later today. A slow and meandering
motion is forecast tonight and Friday.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph (130 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is likely over
the nest day or so, followed by slow weakening.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles
(110 km).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb (29.09 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells associated with Nicole, along with rough surf
conditions, will affect Bermuda for the next few days.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.
$$
Forecaster Pasch
HURRICANE NICOLE SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016
200 PM AST THU OCT 06 2016
This is a special advisory issued to upgrade Nicole to a hurricane.
The system's cloud pattern has become more symmetrical since this
morning, with an eye evident on visible satellite images. The
intensity is set to 70 kt, which is between the subjective and
objective Dvorak intensity estimates. Nicole has been able to
strengthen in an environment of shear on the order of 20 kt. Since
the hurricane has been so resilient to the shear, some additional
strengthening seems likely. By 48 hours, the shear is forecast to
increase to over 40 kt, so some weakening is forecast around that
time. The official intensity forecast is above the SHIPS and LGEM
guidance for the early part of the period, and a blend of those 2
models thereafter.
Little or no change was made to the track forecast from the previous
regular advisory, and the track forecast reasoning is unchanged.
Steering currents are expected to become weak within the next 12 to
24 hours, and Nicole should move slowly and erratically for the next
several days.
Swells associated with this slow-moving storm are affecting Bermuda,
and these conditions are likely to continue for the next several
days.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 06/1800Z 27.3N 65.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 07/0000Z 27.7N 65.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 07/1200Z 27.9N 65.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 08/0000Z 27.3N 64.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 08/1200Z 26.9N 64.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 09/1200Z 26.5N 65.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 10/1200Z 27.0N 66.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 11/1200Z 28.5N 67.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
$$
Forecaster Pasch