ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[dukeblue219]

Holy smokes at the Lightning!

Don't know what you are looking at.There is no lightning in this system as far as my visual tools show.

Scroll up. There have been some lightning maps posted on that thread page.

[Aric Dunn]

pressure 936 with 20kt winds.. could be lower. have to wait for dropsonde

[CronkPSU]

Holy smokes at the Lightning!

Don't know what you are looking at.There is no lightning in this system as far as my visual tools show.

We are getting a big thunderstorm with lots of lightning south and east of Orlando ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[Michele B]

Inner eyewall looks stretched SE to NW, basically in the direction of movement.

Yup. That's what they do!

[KBBOCA]

For those saying all clear and this is over; Read this just released by the NWS Jax:
(PDF)
http://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

I have not seen language such as this in a NWS product very often if ever.

This is the REAL deal and lives are at stake. Quit with the hypothetical guesswork.

Thanks for posting. NWS JAX seems to be doing a phenomenal job in terms of getting info out to the media and the public.

I'm reminded of the awesome job done by NWS forecaster Gary Szatkowski of the Mt Holly office during Sandy. This kind of clear warning saves lives. Keep it up NWS. Great job.

Edit: here's the link to his story and famous warnings if you don't know it:
http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2012/1 ... ather.html

and here's his twitter - he's got some interesting tweets re: Matthew
https://twitter.com/garyszatkowski?lang=en

@GarySzatkowski

[Sanibel]

Heard thunder here in outer band 10 minutes ago.

[EquusStorm]

Radarscope is showing plenty of lightning in the eyewall.

[AZRainman]

[ncweatherwizard]

Really curious what you professionals see as the end result of this ERC. It does appear that the inner eye is holding its own nicely both on radar and IR satellite while the outer eye appears to be contracting

You want my true thinking? I have no idea. Wish I had a better answer. Inner core dynamics of TCs aren't well understood. With all this happening so close to land (and within radar range), it is a rare opportunity for us to observe and hopefully learn something.

[PTrackerLA]

Satellite appearance is rapidly improving he could be trying to ramp up some more.

[psyclone]

Grand Bahama is about to get crushed...oh my is that a terrifying image

[jlauderdal]

....ok... can someone enlightening me still no sustain TS winds in dade or for the matter broward. Clearly taking a more N/NNW jog away from south florida but is that really it?? Oh ya luv those concentric eyewalls beauty.

no hurricane force winds dade and broward per john morales, tropical storm gusts browaed but no winds that would have required shutters per john morales..the track to the right was good for us and very minimal effects in dade and broward

[Texas Snowman]

NHC 5 pm advisory for Matthew:

Pressure: 938 mb
Wind: 140 mph
Movement: NW at 13 mph

[Houstonia]

For those saying all clear and this is over; Read this just released by the NWS Jax:
(PDF)
http://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

I have not seen language such as this in a NWS product very often if ever.

This is the REAL deal and lives are at stake. Quit with the hypothetical guesswork.

Historic. Outside of the now-famous language from the NWS New Orleans office during Katrina, I've never seen anything like this. It's a great and informative presentation for sure. But talk about sobering ... my goodness.

Except for the section that says "Winds will be higher in high rise structures in Downtown Florida possibly strong Category 4 to Category 5 intensity".

[ronjon]

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and large
and destructive waves could raise water levels by as much as the
following amounts above normal tide levels...

Northwestern Bahamas...10 to 15 feet

The water could reach the following heights above ground if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Sebastian Inlet, Florida, to Edisto Beach, South Carolina, including
portions of the St. Johns River...7 to 11 ft
Edisto Beach to South Santee River, South Carolina...4 to 6 ft
Deerfield Beach to Sebastian Inlet, Florida...4 to 6 ft
South Santee River, South Carolina, to Cape Fear, North Carolina...2
to 4 ft
Virginia Key to Deerfield Beach, Florida...1 to 3 ft

[dukeblue219]

5 pm advisory:

938 mb
145 mph winds
NW at 13 mph

Says 140 on the NHC site... at 5pm...

[Texas Snowman]

5 pm advisory:

938 mb
145 mph winds
NW at 13 mph

Says 140 on the NHC site... at 5pm...

Oops. Sorry, corrected above.

[1900hurricane]

Storm structure actually reminds me a bit of Bolaven '12.

[Frank P]

Hate to use the K word, but if Matt hits KSC area and Merritt Island area as things go now and expected, this could very well be their own version Katrina relative to storm surge ... additionally, Katrina's winds upon hitting the MS Coast were no where near what Matthew is forecast to be as a Cat 4. that is some scary stuff.... can only hope this does not come to fruition.... and I should add areas along the coast northward as well... don't want to forget about them...

[dukeblue219]

Probably will be 105-110 at next update.

(Is that MPH?) Why? That would be *dramatic* weakening for a storm in these conditions.