ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[NDG]

It still amazes me that even with all the atmospheric sampling for the models the trend continues that ridging is higher than what models forecast not that at this point it will make much a difference on the track. This tells you that they are always going to under estimate ridging.

[NDG]

If anything the 12z Euro shifted the track a little further inland than yesterday's 12z run.

[swampgator92]

Euro at 24 hours shows Matthew over Cape Canaveral. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... p_us_2.png

[tolakram]

Let's make sure someone posts plots up by the Carolina's, lots of people may still be in the path of Matthew. I will do it if I have time and no one else does.

Remember, to post images you must copy to an image site first, otherwise just paste the link.

[DIwestender]

Matthew at 48 hrs:
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 0&ypos=171

At 72 hrs.
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 0&ypos=171

I hope these links work!

[tolakram]

[tolakram]

[tolakram]

[tolakram]

6 run trend

[tolakram]

Another 6 run trend of the 48h position

[invest man]

Question? I just noticed on the water vapor loop of eastern US that it appears to be a Ull heading south east of New York. I don't see this feature on any of the models. Is this a Ull and if yes how will this effect the track if any? Also seem that there was a low predicted by models several day ago to develop in this area. Any thoughts to what I'm seeing?

[terstorm1012]

Question? I just noticed on the water vapor loop of eastern US that it appears to be a Ull heading south east of New York. I don't see this feature on any of the models. Is this a Ull and if yes how will this effect the track if any? Also seem that there was a low predicted by models several day ago to develop in this area. Any thoughts to what I'm seeing?

I think this is the front supposed to influence Nicole, it's in the various Nicole discussions from the NHC.

[DESTRUCTION5]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 00619&fh=1

Latest HHR...8 hrs still landfall in Treasure Coast.

[Vdogg]

The hurricane is east of both gfs and euro at this time. NHC has even adjusted their forecast points east. It is possible (and looking at the water vapor loop likely) that this misses a direct Florida landfall altogether. The closest model that I can find to this current track is the 12z JMA. It actually takes Matthew up the coast to a landfall in SC, then rides the coast and exits across the Obx then it's OTS, no loop. It'll be interesting to see if NHC adjust the forecast track north some.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... s=0&ypos=0

Also, that trough out west on the water vapor loop looks way stronger than the models were predicting.

[Vdogg]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hrrr&region=seus&pkg=ref_frzn&runtime=2016100619&fh=1

Latest HHR...8 hrs still landfall in Treasure Coast.

That's a hard left. Do you think that will verify?

[jlauderdal]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hrrr&region=seus&pkg=ref_frzn&runtime=2016100619&fh=1

Latest HHR...8 hrs still landfall in Treasure Coast.

the hrrr has been terrible with this system

[bqknight]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hrrr&region=seus&pkg=ref_frzn&runtime=2016100619&fh=1

Latest HHR...8 hrs still landfall in Treasure Coast.

the hrrr has been terrible with this system

The HRRR uses the US Radar network, from what I understand, the more data it can receive from radar, the better it would be.

[jlauderdal]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hrrr&region=seus&pkg=ref_frzn&runtime=2016100619&fh=1

Latest HHR...8 hrs still landfall in Treasure Coast.

the hrrr has been terrible with this system

The HRRR uses the US Radar network, from what I understand, the more data it can receive from radar, the better it would be.

correct but they still run it and its been terrible to this point..its been way to west

[Sav_hurricane_hunter]

I didnt prepare for what this image shows so is this likely to happen? How possible is this & how reliable is this model?

[dukeblue219]

I didnt prepare for what this image shows so is this likely to happen? How possible is this & how reliable is this model?

It's either the best model or one of the best at that range, depending on who you ask. Where are you -- NC? Nobody in the Wilmington, NC area should be ignoring this storm right now. It will weaken as it runs up the coast, but SC and NC are not out of the woods by any means.