ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[Sav_hurricane_hunter]

Just outside of Savannah, Ga about a 25-30 minute car ride to the coast.

[dukeblue219]

Just outside of Savannah, Ga about a 25-30 minute car ride to the coast.

Being that far away should help, but nothing has dramatically changed about the conditions expecting in your area recently. Follow what the NHC says and what your local authorities are telling you to do. Most every model has consistently run the storm up the FL coast and around the curve of Georgia for days now. Nobody knows whether that will be just offshore or just onshore. Today's Euro wasn't anything new. Yes, you should be preparing.

[DESTRUCTION5]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... s=0&ypos=0

20z HHR...Persistant. Martin County at 8 hrs now

[DESTRUCTION5]

Big Shift east in 18z GFS from 12z. Never making FL landfall.

[FixySLN]

I had it stuck in my head that Matthew wouldn't make it that far north anymore. If it shifts any further north prior to the expected curl there's another area (VA SE coast) that needs to start worrying. I can tell you for a fact that nobody here is ready for that. The ground is already completely saturated and we've had a coastal flood warning in effect the last 2 days running. Maybe that front coming from the Midwest isn't going to have as much as an impact as was expected the last 36 hours? Seems to be slowly weakening.

I didnt prepare for what this image shows so is this likely to happen? How possible is this & how reliable is this model?

[NDG]

Big Shift east in 18z GFS from 12z. Never making FL landfall.

Hope is true and not a fluke.

[seahawkjd]

18Z GFS is quite a bit further north too with the turn. It follows the coast right up through quite a bit of South Carolina instead of going off the coast at the SC / Georgia border. Am I correct in that its forecasting the trough pulling it up further?

[WilmingtonSandbar]

18 GFS keeps Matthew from landfalling until about Georgetown SC, and moves it further north before the turn.

[HurrMark]

Big Shift east in 18z GFS from 12z. Never making FL landfall.

I think it's off...has landfall at Freeport at 8 PM when it is there now

[Vdogg]

18Z GFS is quite a bit further north too with the turn. It follows the coast right up through quite a bit of South Carolina instead of going off the coast at the SC / Georgia border. Am I correct in that its forecasting the trough pulling it up further?

Yup. I expect to see this north trend continue with most of the models now. Fact is storm is much faster than it was supposed to be and further east, giving it a chance to catch the trough. Trough is also stronger. We might see some surprise model shifts if the storm can continue at this speed for 24 hrs.

[GTStorm]

18Z GFS, so far, a good trend for Savannah...seems east enough of 5pm NHC track for this area such that if it verifies we'd get less of the hurricane force winds.

At this point we'll take any possibly good news we can get...

[WPBWeather]

18Z GFS is quite a bit further north too with the turn. It follows the coast right up through quite a bit of South Carolina instead of going off the coast at the SC / Georgia border. Am I correct in that its forecasting the trough pulling it up further?

Yup. I expect to see this north trend continue with most of the models now. Fact is storm is much faster than it was supposed to be and further east, giving it a chance to catch the trough. Trough is also stronger. We might see some surprise model shifts if the storm can continue at this speed for 24 hrs.

We have some actual west movement at the moment. Need to look at real time data now, not globals for in close.

[Vdogg]

I had it stuck in my head that Matthew wouldn't make it that far north anymore. If it shifts any further north prior to the expected curl there's another area (VA SE coast) that needs to start worrying. I can tell you for a fact that nobody here is ready for that. The ground is already completely saturated and we've had a coastal flood warning in effect the last 2 days running. Maybe that front coming from the Midwest isn't going to have as much as an impact as was expected the last 36 hours? Seems to be slowly weakening.

I didnt prepare for what this image shows so is this likely to happen? How possible is this & how reliable is this model?

We'll be ok. This is a typical coastal storm setup for us. As long as it drops to Cat 1 like forecast we'll be fine with just some downed trees and power lines. We were in the NE quad of Isabel when that came through and its wind field was huge, that's why that was bad. Now if this is still a Cat 2 or 3 when it reaches us...that's a different story.

[FixySLN]

I had it stuck in my head that Matthew wouldn't make it that far north anymore. If it shifts any further north prior to the expected curl there's another area (VA SE coast) that needs to start worrying. I can tell you for a fact that nobody here is ready for that. The ground is already completely saturated and we've had a coastal flood warning in effect the last 2 days running. Maybe that front coming from the Midwest isn't going to have as much as an impact as was expected the last 36 hours? Seems to be slowly weakening.

I didnt prepare for what this image shows so is this likely to happen? How possible is this & how reliable is this model?

We'll be ok. This is a typical coastal storm setup for us. As long as it drops to Cat 1 like forecast we'll be fine with just some downed trees and power lines. We were in the NE quad of Isabel when that came through and its wind field was huge, that's why that was bad. Now if this is still a Cat 2 or 3 when it reaches us...that's a different story.

Roger that. I was in Florida the last 5 seasons so when I see a swirling ball of destruction inching closer I go into straight prep mode and look for anything that might swing the system one way or another. That front has me scratching my head though, and the speed of the system itself is far from what I was expecting. Matthew has a nasty curveball.

[GTStorm]

apologies if this has been asked a gazillion times already...but does the 5p advisory from the NHC account for the 18Z GFS run data? We (the public ) can see it at 5:30, but do the official folks see it earlier? Obviously, same question for all of the other advisories / GFS data relationships

[tolakram]

18z GFS

[Vdogg]

apologies if this has been asked a gazillion times already...but does the 5p advisory from the NHC account for the 18Z GFS run data? We (the public ) can see it at 5:30, but do the official folks see it earlier? Obviously, same question for all of the other advisories / GFS data relationships

No, nor will the 8pm update. The 11pm should so long as the ensembles are in general agreement.

[GTStorm]

apologies if this has been asked a gazillion times already...but does the 5p advisory from the NHC account for the 18Z GFS run data? We (the public ) can see it at 5:30, but do the official folks see it earlier? Obviously, same question for all of the other advisories / GFS data relationships

No, nor will the 8pm update. The 11pm should so long as the ensembles are in general agreement.

Cool...that's what I thought. I know the 8p / 2p / 8a / 2a updates are really a positional advisories and not track ones. So it will be interesting to see if the 11p advisory nudges east, if of course the other guidance picks up on the same trend.
That should not, however, change anyone's plans for readiness...

[Vdogg]

I had it stuck in my head that Matthew wouldn't make it that far north anymore. If it shifts any further north prior to the expected curl there's another area (VA SE coast) that needs to start worrying. I can tell you for a fact that nobody here is ready for that. The ground is already completely saturated and we've had a coastal flood warning in effect the last 2 days running. Maybe that front coming from the Midwest isn't going to have as much as an impact as was expected the last 36 hours? Seems to be slowly weakening.

We'll be ok. This is a typical coastal storm setup for us. As long as it drops to Cat 1 like forecast we'll be fine with just some downed trees and power lines. We were in the NE quad of Isabel when that came through and its wind field was huge, that's why that was bad. Now if this is still a Cat 2 or 3 when it reaches us...that's a different story.

Roger that. I was in Florida the last 5 seasons so when I see a swirling ball of destruction inching closer I go into straight prep mode and look for anything that might swing the system one way or another. That front has me scratching my head though, and the speed of the system itself is far from what I was expecting. Matthew has a nasty curveball.

Actually the front is stronger, thus the pull north. Look at the water vapor loop and you can see it. Now, even if Matthew doesn't come over top of us, we're going to have a huge flooding event. If you live anywhere near downtown Norfolk or Portsmouth, prepare for that. 13 Km gfs looks nasty for us. I expect, at a bare minimum, to see flash flood and "possibly" TS watches to go up for us by tomorrow evening if this track verifies.



https://mobile.twitter.com/RaleighWx/st ... 8664994816

[dukeblue219]

18Z GFS is quite a bit further north too with the turn. It follows the coast right up through quite a bit of South Carolina instead of going off the coast at the SC / Georgia border. Am I correct in that its forecasting the trough pulling it up further?

Yup. I expect to see this north trend continue with most of the models now. Fact is storm is much faster than it was supposed to be and further east, giving it a chance to catch the trough. Trough is also stronger. We might see some surprise model shifts if the storm can continue at this speed for 24 hrs.

We have some actual west movement at the moment. Need to look at real time data now, not globals for in close.

For Florida concerns, yes. But the globals are still interesting to those in SC or NC. Very little attention has been given to Charleston, Myrtle Beach, and Wilmington over the last 24 hours, but it's not inconceivable that this storm makes it's first official landfall somewhere in that area.