ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#9141 Postby tolakram » Thu Oct 06, 2016 5:31 pm

KBBOCA wrote:haven't really been looking at models for the last 6 hours or so... focused on the "NOW" of the storm. But 18Z GFS seems to show a big change for NC / VA???

[im g]http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016100618/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_10.png[/img]


I'm not seeing any big change.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#9142 Postby Ken711 » Thu Oct 06, 2016 5:31 pm

KBBOCA wrote:haven't really been looking at models for the last 6 hours or so... focused on the "NOW" of the storm. But 18Z GFS seems to show a big change for NC / VA???

Image


Not something I hope becomes a trend.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#9143 Postby leanne_uk » Thu Oct 06, 2016 5:31 pm

If anyone is interested.... here is the video of the ISS pass over Matthew earlier.

https://mobile.twitter.com/Space_Statio ... 24/video/1
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#9144 Postby Madpoodle » Thu Oct 06, 2016 5:31 pm

ZX12R wrote:
ZX12R wrote:
Madpoodle wrote:
You did...

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Wonderful. At least it wasn't wasted.


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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#9145 Postby ncweatherwizard » Thu Oct 06, 2016 5:31 pm

Almost looks like the outer eyewall is becoming continuous with the eastern portion of the inner eyewall, while the eye becomes open to the south. Will be interesting to see what happens in the next hour.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#9146 Postby JtSmarts » Thu Oct 06, 2016 5:33 pm

Amazing that the pressure hasn't risen at all with the double wind maxima, Matthew seems to handle ERC better than any cane I've seen.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#9147 Postby ZX12R » Thu Oct 06, 2016 5:33 pm

Matthew seems to be taking a somewhat substantial wobble toward the west.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#9148 Postby Raebie » Thu Oct 06, 2016 5:33 pm

tolakram wrote:
KBBOCA wrote:haven't really been looking at models for the last 6 hours or so... focused on the "NOW" of the storm. But 18Z GFS seems to show a big change for NC / VA???

[im g]http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016100618/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_10.png[/img]


I'm not seeing any big change.


Run it again at and look at Wilmington. I have a kid there and I'm relying on this site for good info.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#9149 Postby Frank P » Thu Oct 06, 2016 5:34 pm

ncweatherwizard wrote:Almost looks like the outer eyewall is becoming continuous with the eastern portion of the inner eyewall, while the eye becomes open to the south. Will be interesting to see what happens in the next hour.

Well if is can remain in the gulf stream for 12 more hours or so I would expect even more strengthening...
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#9150 Postby Chris_in_Tampa » Thu Oct 06, 2016 5:34 pm

6:15pm EDT splash of sonde:
939mb, 7 knots of surface wind
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#9151 Postby abajan » Thu Oct 06, 2016 5:34 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:looks like we have a ERC starting.. concentric features showing on radar.. that saves everyone from hugely deepening. unless it does it really fast

I think many posters had stated that no more ERCs were likely to occur until Matthew hit Florida. Speaks to the unpredictability of hurricanes.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#9152 Postby tolakram » Thu Oct 06, 2016 5:35 pm

Talk about a quick change.

Saved Loop

Image
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#9153 Postby terstorm1012 » Thu Oct 06, 2016 5:35 pm

1900hurricane wrote:Just as soon as I mention the resiliency of the inner eyewall and the unevenly contracting outer eyewall, it looks like the inner eyewall wants to give up the ghost. Matthew is trying to take me to school it seems. :P Like I mentioned earlier though, core dynamics are very hard to try and nail down.


I'd say you've got yourself a thesis topic on your hands! 8-)
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#9154 Postby Frank P » Thu Oct 06, 2016 5:35 pm

ZX12R wrote:Matthew seems to be taking a somewhat substantial wobble toward the west.

I noticed this as well... but I would expect it to wobble back to the north shortly if it is going to stay on track... but ya just never know when they get this close to land... wobble here or there makes all the difference in the world now..
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#9155 Postby KBBOCA » Thu Oct 06, 2016 5:36 pm

tolakram wrote:
KBBOCA wrote:haven't really been looking at models for the last 6 hours or so... focused on the "NOW" of the storm. But 18Z GFS seems to show a big change for NC / VA???

[im g]http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016100618/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_10.png[/img]


I'm not seeing any big change.


Seems to be going further north before starting the loop to the Southeast?
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#9156 Postby hurricaneCW » Thu Oct 06, 2016 5:36 pm

Freeport is taking a beating, the inner eyewall is lashing them as we speak.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#9157 Postby tolakram » Thu Oct 06, 2016 5:38 pm

KBBOCA wrote:Seems to be going further north before starting the loop to the Southeast?


Did you compare it to the saved runs? See link in my signature. It has trended a bit further north, but weak and already heading out. May be a rain issue.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#9158 Postby alan1961 » Thu Oct 06, 2016 5:38 pm

Latest Radar

Image

Last visible

Image
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#9159 Postby Michele B » Thu Oct 06, 2016 5:38 pm

ThetaE wrote:In some ways, I think a "dodged bullet" like what the 18z GFS shows could prove more worrisome overall in future years. To us board members, who have a pretty good understanding of how tropical cyclones work, we recognize that the exact landfall of such systems comes down to very small intricacies in the storm that are hard to predict. To the general public, however, who likely don't know of these things, such a miss will make the storm seem like "no big deal" after all. And then, when a storm this dangerous eventually threatens the US again (as it will undoubtedly happen), this storm will come to mind of many, and what's to say those people won't just shrug their shoulders and say, "Well, Matthew was a category 4, and he wasn't a big deal...." Perhaps I'm over-exaggerating the response on the public's side some, but as I've read through the forum today, I've seen countless signs that many people are unaware or underestimating the danger Matthew poses, and if their beliefs are confirmed when they're likely taking precautions, I don't think they'll be so cautious the next time, and that could prove to be a big problem.

EDIT: And even still, I don't think impacts will be that reduced if Matthew stays off the coast. If they are, however, then this could become a "boy who cried wolf" situation.


Yeah, it's a tightrope the ProMets have to walk.

I dno't envy them.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#9160 Postby Socalhurcnegirl227 » Thu Oct 06, 2016 5:39 pm

scogor wrote:Friends, I need some advice here. My mother-in-law (almost 90 years old) lives by herself in a home near (but not on) the St. Johns River in Jacksonville. It's a brick home but built well before the Andrew standards. She has refused our pleas to evacuate but now is at the point where she admits that she doesn't want to "inconvenience" us. We live in Sarasota and it takes between 4 and 5 hours to drive to her home. We can leave tonight and pick her up and be back in Sarasota before dawn tomorrow. Will I be able to get gas on the way back and will the weather deteriorate too badly for us to do this?

Research atleast a couple hotels on the way back incase conditions begin to get too bad you can all hunker down in a safe place until the conditions improve. This is what i would do incase my trip back home was interrupted by storm conditions. Drive safe and hope you can make it both ways without too much trouble.
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