ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[WilmingtonSandbar]

Has anyone else noted that the 18z GFS run has Matthew staying off the coast until about Georgetown SC, and making the turn farther north than the earlier runs?

Yes, we're all looking at it and taking notice. We need to wait for a lot more model runs later tonight to see if it's really meaningful. You have to find a trend and consensus in most of not all of the models and the actual data before changing the forecast.

Oh, I agree completely. I was just bringing it up here, because this is the discussion board. I wanted to keep the discussion out of the Models board.

[Steve]

That west hook is (un)explainable beyond just inner rotation. It was land. It's hooking under the island per radar.

[OntarioEggplant]

This ERC is one of the more bizarre ones I've seen.

[MGC]

Outer eyewall looks to be contracting at a good clip. Been interesting watching this unfold on radar.....MGC

[tarheelprogrammer]

Radar starting to look impressive he is feeling those Gulf Stream waters.

[Agua]

Friends, I need some advice here. My mother-in-law (almost 90 years old) lives by herself in a home near (but not on) the St. Johns River in Jacksonville. It's a brick home but built well before the Andrew standards. She has refused our pleas to evacuate but now is at the point where she admits that she doesn't want to "inconvenience" us. We live in Sarasota and it takes between 4 and 5 hours to drive to her home. We can leave tonight and pick her up and be back in Sarasota before dawn tomorrow. Will I be able to get gas on the way back and will the weather deteriorate too badly for us to do this?

Research atleast a couple hotels on the way back incase conditions begin to get too bad you can all hunker down in a safe place until the conditions improve. This is what i would do incase my trip back home was interrupted by storm conditions. Drive safe and hope you can make it both ways without too much trouble.

If you're going to go, then GO. Research it on your phone. Carry gas with you. I don't know how jam packed the ride back is going to be, but you may want to consider taking back roads on the way back.

[Michele B]

Slide around Grand Bahama?

Awesome graphic!

Are those little round red and yellow circles areas of tornadic activity?

[ozonepete]

The satellite imagery shows that Mathew has built a really nice solid CDO around and over the eye now and this usually indicates strengthening. That's bad of course. Really bad. But on the good side, I'm seeing more and more trends in the track to be a little more east of the forecast points. You can see it on both satellite and radar. It's enough that I'm becoming pretty sure that the complete eye will never make landfall on the Florida coast - will come pretty close at times but not make landfall where the coast gets a calm wind. That would be much better in terms of wind damage of course. Let's hope.

[KBBOCA]

Wow, looks like CDO is really filling in expanding now? This is GOES13 infrared:



Again, I'm pulling this off of the comments on Jeff Masters' blog entry at Wunderground...

[GoneBabyGone]

Thoughts go out to Florida.

Are there any thoughts/consensus on what this is going to do once it completes its loop? Is it still possible for it to ride the coast after that and hit areas in the NE that were hit by Sandy?

[Hammy]

Could the ERC have been foreseen by the models and would that have explained the westward bend that models showed earlier that now seems to be under way?

[SapphireSea]

Thoughts go out to Florida.

Are there any thoughts/consensus on what this is going to do once it completes its loop? Is it still possible for it to ride the coast after that and hit areas in the NE that were hit by Sandy?

Nothing is impossible, but guidance that is available now says it is not in the cards.

[Agua]

Could the ERC have been foreseen by the models and would that have explained the westward bend that models showed earlier that now seems to be under way?

No. It would have to be a predictable event for that to occur, and it is not.

[KC7NEC]

Slightly Off Topic: I'm guessing none of us are sleeping tonight?

I personally will be helping Humanity Road with digital disaster response, listening to 8 scanner feeds, at least 3 video streams, and reading Storm2K while watching Twitter.

Good luck to all of you in Florida tonight.

[ronjon]

The HRRR model showed a due west movement once it reached Freeport for several hours. Not sure it caught the ERC.

[meriland23]

What are the chances this strengthens to a cat 5 ?

[Michele B]

Radar starting to look impressive he is feeling those Gulf Stream waters.

Apparently "tasting" them and hurrying toward them!

[TeamPlayersBlue]

The HRRR model showed a due west movement once it reached Freeport for several hours. Not sure it caught the ERC.

Its an incredible model

[tolakram]

live ir

speed it up

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=27&lon=-79&info=ir&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir2.pal&numframes=30&mapcolor=yellow

[leanne_uk]

I hope you and the fellow volunteers stay safe themselves during Matthews approach and damage.
You are doing wonderful job and there are going to be people that are beyond thankful for your help should they require it

Slightly Off Topic: I'm guessing none of us are sleeping tonight?

I personally will be helping Humanity Road with digital disaster response, listening to 8 scanner feeds, at least 3 video streams, and reading Storm2K while watching Twitter.

Good luck to all of you in Florida tonight.