ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[chris_fit]

looks like it went stationary over Freeport

I'm not a pro - but to me I think that the 'little center' is simply rotating around the outer/secondary eye-wall now. I bet we will see a S/E component soon as it rotates inside the larger new center.

[abajan]

In some ways, I think a "dodged bullet" like what the 18z GFS shows could prove more worrisome overall in future years. To us board members, who have a pretty good understanding of how tropical cyclones work, we recognize that the exact landfall of such systems comes down to very small intricacies in the storm that are hard to predict. To the general public, however, who likely don't know of these things, such a miss will make the storm seem like "no big deal" after all. And then, when a storm this dangerous eventually threatens the US again (as it will undoubtedly happen), this storm will come to mind of many, and what's to say those people won't just shrug their shoulders and say, "Well, Matthew was a category 4, and he wasn't a big deal...." Perhaps I'm over-exaggerating the response on the public's side some, but as I've read through the forum today, I've seen countless signs that many people are unaware or underestimating the danger Matthew poses, and if their beliefs are confirmed when they're likely taking precautions, I don't think they'll be so cautious the next time, and that could prove to be a big problem.

EDIT: And even still, I don't think impacts will be that reduced if Matthew stays off the coast. If they are, however, then this could become a "boy who cried wolf" situation.

Yeah, I've been thinking about this very scenario. Unfortunately, the only remedy for such people may be for a future hurricane to hit their area as forecast.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Looks like it wobbled a little west going right around Freeport in the Bahamas

[shawn6304]

looks like it went stationary over Freeport

I thought that as well would that be possible that it could indicate a turn?

[SunnyThoughts]

Any of the guests on the board evacuating...and driving at the moment and checking this board for updates. Gov. Rick Scott says there are public message signs all along evacuation routes showing if there are open hotel rooms at every exit you pass. If they say there are NO rooms available....keep going, apparently they are accurate. Drive until you find a sign saying rooms are available.

[bamajammer4eva]

Almost trying to landfall on Freeport while spinning in place. Eye shrinking?

[jlauderdal]

does the radar presentation look infinitely better than two hours ago?

Sure does. What do you think about the loop and coming back down towards us in 5 days? That would be crazy.

seems like it would be real weak...i have given up on models beyond three days, lets see what happens

[delta lady]

Crap! I am in the new evac zone C. 1/10 mi from St John's River, east of downtown Jax.

Sounds like Arlington where I grew up. You'd be smart to Evac.

Arlington it is. Now I' m just worried about flooding. I wish I had had more time. I would have gone out and bought some concrete blocks to set under a couple of pieces of furniture that I really care about.

I was out of there by 12:30. Had to go back once. Neighbor decided to stay, so I made him give me his phone #.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Almost trying to landfall on Freeport while spinning in place

They are most certainly getting pummeled by the worst of Matthew right now.

[ronyan]

I'm going to guess landfall on Satellite Beach.

[jlauderdal]

does the radar presentation look infinitely better than two hours ago?

look a million times better now....

"Better" meaning, more destructive or less? Hard to tell with this subject.

better means more developed, healthy, intense, photogenic

[SunnyThoughts]

[ScottNAtlanta]

Its doing the Joe Bastardi dance around the Island where Freeport is located.

[Frank P]

Looks to be moving again on radar...

[cjrciadt]

Almost trying to landfall on Freeport while spinning in place

They are most certainly getting pummeled by the worst of Matthew right now.

WU is saying 121 gusts atm.

[ozonepete]

I'm very confused by this ERC. Instead if the inner eyewall collapsing, it seems to be merging with the outer eyewall which is quickly closing in while the pressure remains steady or slightly drops.

They are all different and almost all of them are confusing and sloppy. Very few are textbook. I think a lot of people here have been unduly influenced to think they're all textbook. So here's a great chance to watch along with the pros and learn some of the odd ways that ERCs develop and complete or wash out.

[jlauderdal]

my 14 year old said.."we are finally getting some action from this storm"...thats all you need to know about the current situation on NE FLL

her and her fiends have been disapointed all day....they clearly dont remember their time in wilma without power

[Steve]

For anyone who doesn't get the eye but the left side of the inner core, especially farther up the coast based on some of the models, you could see getting a piece of the north, mostly west and south eyewall. That can and will be a serious 4-6 hours for some. I was in Austin for Gustav, but I think Baton Rouge, as far inland as it is, got the north eyewall and got pretty smashed for a Cat 1. This is stronger.

[drezee]

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=spgf1

over hurricane force sustained and gusts to 105 mph measured!!!

[Exalt]

Almost trying to landfall on Freeport while spinning in place. Eye shrinking?

That outer eyewall looks SCARY.