ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Noles2016]

Also if you look at the models it isn't a good thing if it starts turning North right now, means it will start its loop sooner and hit South Florida a lot sooner than in 5 days on the return track.

You really want that SFLA hit don't you?

That is what the models are showing to happen at the end of the loop.

Matthew will be MUCH weaker on 2nd approach. A north turn now would be fantastic.

[psyclone]

I have never given up hope this thing tracks just 50 miles east of the official forecast. It's torture watching it from the other side of the state. I can't imagine what it's like in the potential strike zone.

[Blown Away]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/784131516855099392

So did this verify? Showing a big lopsided eye swinging through Martin County then northward? Kinda is what is happening, assuming the 60 mile wide feature is actually part of the eye?

[ozonepete]

But to where?

There is only one course change coming, from northwest to north. It will come sooner or later. The current nw course cannot change to west-northwest or west because the steering winds are not oriented that way. So the next, inevitable, course change will be more northerly which will take it further offshore and that will be so great for Florida's east coast - the sooner the better.

I agree, the sooner the better for Florida, but what about points north of there? Won't it give the storm more time over the warm waters to strengthen even more? Or do you think that could happen?

Actually the last few frames on satellite show the cloud tops are warming again. Remember that land interaction has also started as some of Matthew's circulation is now over Florida, and that will also allow some weakening despite the core being over very warm water. The overall factors governing whether it will strengthen anymore are trending towards a weakening. Right now I'm getting pretty optimistic that most of the east coast there may have dodged the bullet, but that's just this one person's opinion and we have to hang tight and hope I'm right.

[Blinhart]

You really want that SFLA hit don't you?

That is what the models are showing to happen at the end of the loop.

Matthew will be MUCH weaker on 2nd approach. A north turn now would be fantastic.

There is no way you can say with 100% certainty that Matthew would be much weaker, the models have been way off on intensity the whole time, so don't go by intensity models for forecasting the 2nd approach.

[GeneratorPower]

I'm not suggesting people sound the all-clear. This situation certainly warrants executing hurricane emergency plans and staying alert. However, this whole event, with the northward turns and the modeling...it just seems like chances of significant damage are going down. My bet is the center stays offshore for its entire life.

[Jevo]

Approximately 30 minutes of movement. About 3-4 miles of movement shown. The blue ring was placed perfectly inside the eye 30 minutes ago. See how it moved?

You're tracking the inner eye which has been bouncing around the larger outer eye for the last 5 hours. True motion can be determined by tracking the movement of the larger outer circle.

[NDG]

Lake Worth Pier reported a wind gust of 60 mph an hour ago.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=lkwf1

[ScottNAtlanta]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/784176577806495744

[delta lady]

Is there any way for me to watch live streaming coverage online without a cable provider? It requires one and I only have antennae. None of the channels on my TV cover the storm.

I am up in Michigan, but lived in Palm Coast and Daytona Beach for many years. I am watching WFTV and WESH out of Orlando. Just go right to there website and you can see the link to watch live streaming.

I just heard that Orlando has a 10PM curfew starting tonight, lifting at 7AM Saturday. If they catch you out, you'll get taken to 33RD Street. (jail)

[tallywx]

There is only one course change coming, from northwest to north. It will come sooner or later. The current nw course cannot change to west-northwest or west because the steering winds are not oriented that way. So the next, inevitable, course change will be more northerly which will take it further offshore and that will be so great for Florida's east coast - the sooner the better.

I agree, the sooner the better for Florida, but what about points north of there? Won't it give the storm more time over the warm waters to strengthen even more? Or do you think that could happen?

Actually the last few frames on satellite show the cloud tops are warming again. Remember that land interaction has also started as some of Matthew's circulation is now over Florida, and that will also allow some weakening despite the core being over very warm water. The overall factors governing whether it will strengthen anymore are trending towards a weakening. Right now I'm getting pretty optimistic that most of the east coast there may have dodged the bullet, but that's just this one person's opinion and we have to hang tight and hope I'm right.

Andrew strengthened while part of its circulation was over Florida, did it not? Charley strengthened up through landfall too...

[gatorcane]

The consensus track had this storm at least 30-40 miles more west if you looked just yesterday even the Euro and GFS. Now the center is near Freeport where no reliable models had this. This difference is the savings grace for Palm Beach County coastline getting hurricane force winds. Still a chance for north county but the chances are lower due to the fortuitous north jog today. Now we see why there is a cone of uncertainty. Let's see if Matthew even makes landfall at all in Florida.

[stephen23]

Just my Amateur prediction.... As the inner eyewall pushes up against the outer eyewall people will say this is heading due north. Then as friction takes hold like a top hitting a wall the inner eyewall will shift to the west as seen earlier in which will push the outer eyewall to the west a bit. Then people will be saying it is moving due west. This will continue until the inner eyewall gives up. Stairstepping its way to the coast.

[Noles2016]

That is what the models are showing to happen at the end of the loop.

Matthew will be MUCH weaker on 2nd approach. A north turn now would be fantastic.

There is no way you can say with 100% certainty that Matthew would be much weaker, the models have been way off on intensity the whole time, so don't go by intensity models for forecasting the 2nd approach.

Not 100%, but dang near close.

[GeneratorPower]

Here's one of the outer eye. The eye was perfectly fit with the blue circle, along the edge of the yellow banding.

[tolakram]

Not 100%, but dang near close.

So you didn't stay up for the epic GFS run the other night?

[Blown Away]

Seems GFS/Euro overestimated the ridge strength...

[dukeblue219]

That is what the models are showing to happen at the end of the loop.

Matthew will be MUCH weaker on 2nd approach. A north turn now would be fantastic.

There is no way you can say with 100% certainty that Matthew would be much weaker, the models have been way off on intensity the whole time, so don't go by intensity models for forecasting the 2nd approach.

Any model that HAS shown a loopback has done it as a ~1000mb storm as far as I've seen. Possibly not even an organized tropical cyclone anymore. Nothing is 100%, sure, but the reality is a loopback as any level of hurricane is remote at this point. Given the big picture of today and tomorrow, worrying about that loop is not at the top of my list.

[dukeblue219]

Not 100%, but dang near close.

So you didn't stay up for the epic GFS run the other night?

Did the GFS loop it back as a strong storm on one run?

[hurricaneCW]

I hope no one gives the all clear until the storm actually goes away.