ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ScottNAtlanta]

Listen, while my personal opinion is this will be a non-event for Florida in the end,

It's starting to look like that could be the case. But it's not said and done yet, so, we will see.

Looks that way, but don't let your guard down just yet. Maximum sustained winds are down to 130 mph and it appears that the eye will remain offshore, but one never knows for certain.

Wow...just the phrase DOWN to 130mph sounds freakish

[SapphireSea]

Inner eye looks like it's bending WNW again in the last few frames.

Outer Eye seems to be heading at 350-360 degrees in wobble fashion.

[ZX12R]

Sitting here in an enclosed parking garage in Melbourne.

Fully-supplied in my truck with a well-lit reinforced stairwell should things get crazy.

I may catch a few hours sleep.

It's going to be a long night.

Good luck everyone!!

With the way things have been unfolding, it's perhaps going to be a long boring night for you, If that changes, please send us reports of your exciting experience!

[shawn67]

I think all the looping images on the radar from the Miami NWS with the inner and outer walls is "squirreling" us on Matthew's true direction. FYI, the inner eyewall is starting to appear on Melbourne NWS radar.

[ronjon]

Just when I think inner eyewall is dying, it fires back up with convection. Western outer eyewall only 10-15 miles offshore of WPB and creeping closer.

[Andrew92]

I haven't said anything on this forum about Matthew. However, I have read and studied a lot, and have my own take.

This storm has by and large gone pretty close to its projected path. The big question though is what the effects will look like in Florida, depending on its track? Well, looking at the latest position relative to where Matthew was three hours ago when this cone was released, it is pretty close to where it should be. It might be about 0.1 degrees east or so, but that may partly be a function of a wobble. The general trend according to radar is clearly northwest.

Now, there is some hope of perhaps no landfall at all. Then again, I almost wonder if that just means worse conditions further north, depending on how close Matthew passes. In that sense, no landfall at all but a close grazes within 50 miles or less scares me just as much as an actual landfall. Following this track and the current trends, I think Matthew will at least be close enough to produce hurricane force winds, even on the weak side. Therefore, everyone should be safe and secure now for the main event. Like others have posted, I would love to see this pass farther offshore. However, with still the reliable models and the center of the cone as close as they are, I am just not sure it will work out that way.

Intensity? I can't tell if it's weakening, intensifying, or holding steady. It seems to be in a weird eyewall replacement cycle, which would indicate weakening. Yet at other times, it seems the inner eyewall is still intact, or the outer eyewall is contracting at a fast clip. It is about to pass over the Gulf Stream, which might allow a bit further intensification if it is organized well enough. But I am thinking probably not a lot more than what it is right now. Hopefully it weakens better still, but everyone in the potential path should be ready for at least 150 mph winds, just in case it is that strong and it does make landfall. It sounds like a fair amount of people are ready, which encourages me.

Good luck to all in the path! Hoping it isn't as close to shore tomorrow as I think it will get, or onshore.

-Andrew92

EDITED due to typos. I blame auto-correct!

[Exalt]

All Miami TV stations have stopped wall-to-wall hurricane coverage, I'm watching Thursday Night Football on WFOR (CBS)

I think that's pretty dangerous and irresponsible, hurricanes can always take surprise dips and turns, and it's still catastrophic for the upper 2/3rds of the east FL coast and I'd hope to think that all FL citizens would be worried and inclined to know what's coming.

[Andrew92]

OK, back to original post. It has weakened a bit and I missed that! But I am not sure if that sustains per se, since it appears to be internally related with that eyewall replacement cycle.

-Andrew92

[NDG]

As if Matthew wants to start that more northerly track but heights across the Carolinas continue to grow, 0z sounding out of Newport NC went from 589dm at 12z to 591dm at 0z, so the continuing building ridge to its north will continue to make Matthew stay on NW course to NNW through the night.

[Blown Away]

Fortunately this has been dead wrong...
Why does Ryan Maue keep tweeting this?? He is a big time weather guy??

Can you describe how it's wrong?

That run shows partial eyewall raking through Martin County, which is almost due W of Matt... This model showing WPB last night... No disrespect, just not sure why Ryan M keeps posting it... I'll take the 50-80 gusts and breath a sigh of relief...

[Soonercane]

As if Matthew wants to start that more northerly track but heights across the Carolinas continue to grow, 0z sounding out of Newport NC went from 589dm at 12z to 591dm at 0z, so the continuing building ridge to its north will continue to make Matthew stay on NW course to NNW through the night.

Hmm interesting observation, maybe Florida is not in the all clear yet.

[sandy18]

As if Matthew wants to start that more northerly track but heights across the Carolinas continue to grow, 0z sounding out of Newport NC went from 589dm at 12z to 591dm at 0z, so the continuing building ridge to its north will continue to make Matthew stay on NW course to NNW through the night.

I live in Newport NC can you explain what you just said not sure I understand

[SouthFloridian92]

Bring on the category 4 winds!!! I think he's going to Fort Pierce but I'm most likely wrong. Of course, this is just an opinion, not truth.

[bahamaswx]

Lots of islands in the Bahamas got the eyewall. Looks like West End is the only place he actually made landfall though.

[HurricaneHunter914]

As if Matthew wants to start that more northerly track but heights across the Carolinas continue to grow, 0z sounding out of Newport NC went from 589dm at 12z to 591dm at 0z, so the continuing building ridge to its north will continue to make Matthew stay on NW course to NNW through the night.

Hmm interesting observation, maybe Florida is not in the all clear yet.

Florida was never in the all clear to begin with. A jog north and suddenly there's a movement to declare the entire state as safe..

[SapphireSea]

As if Matthew wants to start that more northerly track but heights across the Carolinas continue to grow, 0z sounding out of Newport NC went from 589dm at 12z to 591dm at 0z, so the continuing building ridge to its north will continue to make Matthew stay on NW course to NNW through the night.

Where are these height datas from? I do not see anywhere showing 591 heights at Newport.

[jlauderdal]

All Miami TV stations have stopped wall-to-wall hurricane coverage, I'm watching Thursday Night Football on WFOR (CBS)

there were two trees down in miami..they ran out of things to cover

[KC7NEC]

Interesting 3D view of Matthew:

[FLpanhandle91]

Absolutely baffled by everyone calling Florida safe and Matthew weak..

[MrStormX]

Given the unusual structural changes that are propagating within Matthew, it is foolish (imo) to start saying that "location x" or "location y" have been spared the brunt of the storm. For now, everybody needs to be taking this seriously.