WPAC: Tropical Depression Aere

[1900hurricane]

The race to Aere is on!

TD
Issued at 19:35 UTC, 4 October 2016

<Analysis at 18 UTC, 4 October>
Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N19°25' (19.4°)
E127°50' (127.8°)
Direction and speed of movement W 35 km/h (20 kt)
Central pressure 1002 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 15 m/s (30 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23 m/s (45 kt)

<Forecast for 06 UTC, 5 October>
Intensity -
TD
Center position of probability circle N19°25' (19.4°)
E125°25' (125.4°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20 km/h (11 kt)
Central pressure 1000 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 15 m/s (30 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23 m/s (45 kt)
Radius of probability circle 110 km (60 NM)

<Forecast for 18 UTC, 5 October>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N19°35' (19.6°)
E123°00' (123.0°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20 km/h (11 kt)
Central pressure 996 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 200 km (110 NM)

[euro6208]

TXPQ24 KNES 042156
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (99W)

B. 04/2030Z

C. 19.6N

D. 128.6E

E. FIVE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T1.0/1.0/D0.5/12HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...LOOSELY DEFINED CLOUD LINES WITH A LLC LESS THAN 75 NM
FROM A LARGE COLD OVERCAST RESULTS IN A DT OF 1.5. MET= 2.0 AND PT=
1.5. FT IS BASED ON TRADITIONAL DVORAK CONSTRAINTS LIMITING CHANGES IN
FT TO 0.5 OVER 6 SIX HRS.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SZATANEK

[euro6208]

EURO still pretty robust with this. Stalls it offshore Hong Kong, strengthens it to 987mb and weakens it rapidly.

GFS back to a very weak system.

[euro6208]

WTPN21 PGTW 050130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 18.7N 128.4E TO 20.1N 118.7E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
050100Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 18.7N
126.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 17.7N 134.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 126.7E, APPROXIMATELY
730 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-
CIRCLE. A 042159Z WINDSAT 37GHZ IMAGE REVEALS FORMATIVE BANDING
WRAPPING BROADLY INTO THE LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE EASTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW IS FORECAST TO IMPROVE NEAR LUZON. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWS A GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE LUZON STRAIT IN THE
NEXT TWO DAYS WITH GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
060130Z.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

TPPN10 PGTW 050020

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 99W (SE OF TAIWAN)

B. 05/0000Z

C. 18.46N

D. 126.53E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T1.0/1.0

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .25 ON LOG10
SPIRAL, YIELDING A DT OF 1.0. MET AND PT AGREE WITH DT. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


CHAPPOTIN

[euro6208]

TXPQ24 KNES 050959
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (99W)

B. 05/0830Z

C. 19.7N

D. 124.7E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T2.0/2.0/D1.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...DT OF 2.0 IS BASED ON SHEAR PATTERN WITH CIRCULAR LL CLOUD
LINES AND A CENTER LT 75 NMI FROM A LARGE AREA OF ACTIVE CONVECTION. MET
IS 1.5 AND PT IS 2.0. FT IS BASED ON PT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...RAMIREZ

[euro6208]

[1900hurricane]

Looks like it's time for a renumber.

[euro6208]

22W TWENTYTWO 161005 0600 18.9N 125.6E WPAC 20 1007

TD 22W is here...

[euro6208]

Forecast to briefly become a TS.

WDPN31 PGTW 052100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22W (TWENTY-TWO)
WARNING NR 02//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 22W (TWENTY-TWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
424 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 22 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM REMAINS DISORGANIZED AND FRAGMENTED AS IT CROSSES
THE LUZON STRAIT. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A COMPOSITE RADAR
LOOP FROM THE TAIWAN CENTRAL WEATHER BUREAU WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM PGTW. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) WITH MINIMAL
SOUTHEASTWARD OUTFLOW. A TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST IS CAUSING
SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERIES; EVIDENT ON ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, HOWEVER, ARE
FAVORABLY WARM AT 30C. OVERALL, THE ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TD 22W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS
TOWARDS THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE RESULTING IN WEAK INTENSIFICATION, PEAKING AT 40 KNOTS BY
TAU 48.
C. BEYOND TAU 72, A SECONDARY STR BUILDING OVER EASTERN CHINA WILL
ASSUME STEERING AND CAUSE TD 22W TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD. THIS WILL,
HOWEVER, INCREASE VWS AND UPPER-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE NORTHWEST
PERIPHERY RESULTING IN GRADUAL DECAY. BY END OF FORECAST, TD 22W WILL
BE REDUCED BACK TO 25 KNOTS AS IT BEGINS TO DISSIPATE NEAR HAINAN.
THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC MODELS ARE WIDELY SPREAD ESPECIALLY AFTER TAU
12, LENDING LOW CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN

[kala]

WTPQ22 RJTD 051800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1619 AERE (1619) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 051800UTC 19.9N 122.7E FAIR
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 60NM
FORECAST
24HF 061800UTC 20.2N 117.3E 60NM 70%
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 071800UTC 20.1N 115.5E 95NM 70%
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
72HF 081800UTC 19.9N 114.7E 130NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT =

[euro6208]

22W AERE 161006 1200 20.5N 117.5E WPAC 35 996

Upgraded to TS Aere.

[euro6208]

[euro6208]

What a 00Z run from EURO. Peaks at 1000mb and moves it inland over Hong Kong.

[1900hurricane]

Not bad...

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 070900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 22W (AERE) WARNING NR
08//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 22W (AERE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 148 NM
SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A MOSTLY UNCHANGED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE WITH A SMALL CDO
FEATURE OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). BANDING
ALONG THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE CONTINUES TO WRAP INTO THE CENTER. A
070621Z SSMI 85GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS STRONG CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING INTO A WELL DEFINED LLCC FROM THE NORTH. THE LLCC IN THE
MICROWAVE IMAGE SUPPORTS THE CURRENT POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE.
THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN HELD AT 45 KNOTS BASED ON T3.0 (45 KNOTS)
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES. TS AERE IS
SLOWING AND TURNING SLIGHTLY MORE POLEWARD INTO A COMPETING STEERING
ENVIRONMENT AS THE STEERING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST
RECEDES. THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE IS BEING SUPPORTED BY LOW (5-10
KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 29
TO 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. HOWEVER, MARGINAL OUTFLOW CONDITIONS ARE
PREVENTING FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AT THIS TIME.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. COMPETING STEERING FOR TS 22W WILL RESULT IN SLOW AND QUASI-
STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM
SLOWLY TRANSITIONS TO A STR BUILD OVER CHINA NEAR TAU 48. DURING
THIS TIME, LOW VWS AND SLOW TRACK SPEED OVER VERY WARM WATER WILL
ALLOW ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION REACHING A PEAK OF 55 KNOTS. AFTER
TAU 48, THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE BUILDING STR WILL INCREASE VWS AND
CAUSE SUBSIDENCE ALOFT, TRIGGERING A WEAKENING TREND.
C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, THE STR OVER CHINA WILL RESULT IN A
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY TOWARDS HAINAN. THE INCREASED VWS AND
UPPER-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL DECAY, WITH TS 22W
DISSIPATING PRIOR TO LANDFALL OVER HAINAN BY TAU 120. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS WIDELY SPREAD DUE TO THE COMPLICATED STEERING
ENVIRONMENT AND HIGH UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH THE QUASI-
STATIONARY MOTION. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

TXPQ24 KNES 070359
TCSWNP

A. 22W (AERE)

B. 07/0230Z

C. 20.6N

D. 116.3E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T3.5/3.5/D2.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...DT OF 3.5 IS BASED ON 0.8 BANDING. MET IS 2.5 AND PT IS
3.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...RAMIREZ

[euro6208]

[euro6208]

Now forecast to peak as a typhoon...

[kala]

I find it funny JMA has this at 60 kts but had Linfa peaking at 50 kts last year.

I think they're doing much better this year though (arguably better than JTWC) with intensities (aside from their absolutely messed up higher intensities).