ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
TexasF6
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 816
Joined: Mon Aug 09, 2004 9:33 pm
Location: Austin, TX

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#9401 Postby TexasF6 » Thu Oct 06, 2016 7:56 pm

If you are going to post INANE NONSENSE? Stop yourself from typing it. Otherwise USE THE STORM2K DISCLAIMER on your posts!!!!! People LOVE and SUPPORT this site for all the honest, awesome, graciousness from our ProMet communities and fellow WX watchers--AND S2K provides solid advice and great resources for those caught in any storm when it hits. Thank you. Back to Matthew. He is beginning to get the buzzsaw look on RBTOP shot with a clear center eye. Please be safe if you are in his path, and get out if you are in an evac zone. Godspeed everyone. :flag: :double:







The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
2 likes   

User avatar
Kazmit
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2124
Age: 22
Joined: Mon Jul 25, 2016 8:49 am
Location: Williamsburg, VA / Bermuda

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#9402 Postby Kazmit » Thu Oct 06, 2016 7:56 pm

meriland23 wrote:Is Matt starting to come down in strength? The unchanged MB with the 130 mph winds is.throwing me off

The pressure's still the same, so I think it's at least maintaining its strength. In general, I think it could be strengthening, but don't take my word for it.
0 likes   
Igor 2010, Sandy 2012, Fay 2014, Gonzalo 2014, Joaquin 2015, Nicole 2016, Humberto 2019

I am only a tropical weather enthusiast. My predictions are not official and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
La Sirena
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 307
Joined: Sun Aug 21, 2016 4:02 pm
Location: Formerly of the Keys, back home in East TN

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#9403 Postby La Sirena » Thu Oct 06, 2016 7:56 pm

SapphireSea wrote:As of 35 minutes ago, Broward Local NBC station discontinued non-stop coverage of Matthew as well. Good luck WPB lets see what that band has in store.

Really? That's crazy. We are 200 miles SW of the storm and have crazy winds right now!!! I think those folks need local updates more than sitcoms/dramas.
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

Sanibel
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10375
Joined: Mon Aug 30, 2004 11:06 pm
Location: Offshore SW Florida

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#9404 Postby Sanibel » Thu Oct 06, 2016 7:58 pm

Eye is clearing out. SSD is tracking the original small eye as the center.


No (note-worthy) winds here yet.
Last edited by Sanibel on Thu Oct 06, 2016 7:59 pm, edited 2 times in total.
1 likes   

User avatar
Steve
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9621
Joined: Sat Apr 05, 2003 11:41 pm
Location: Not a state-caster

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#9405 Postby Steve » Thu Oct 06, 2016 7:58 pm

Don't kill all us because we quoted something. Luckily I saved my reply to Frank P and can throw him the peace (I'll delete out the troll...

Hey Frank. Great to see you posting man. I'm glad it's not us this time, but I've enjoyed tracking this storm with you as we've been doing probably since the late 90's. Was great to see CFHC busting on that b.s. news clip earlier too.

I'm kind of scared for next year, but we'll see what happens. We still have the rest of this season to go. As always, you're posts are concise and on point. Matthew is greatness (acknowledging the tragedies) as far as hurricanes go. It's quite a storm for the history books for various reasons. I think the entire east coast of Florida, Georgia and maybe especially South Carolina are going to really bite it. Maybe the on-shore effects aren't Cat-4, but if there are Cat 1 or 2 feeder bands out front in the inner core, it's going to be a path of destruction. MSNBC was hyping how to get a 200 billion storm, but I'm thinking more $10-20 which was what I posted last night. Unless something crazy happens, this is going to be bad news for lots of people. Jacksonville has been the bullseye for action this year, and they, particularly maybe Jax Beach, looks for a coup de grace from 2016. We've been there baby. haha
4 likes   

Digital-TC-Chaser

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#9406 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Thu Oct 06, 2016 7:59 pm

TJRE wrote:Mr Cowan.... must view!!!
just the facts

https://youtu.be/nggyQhmMPTM


thankyou for that post.
0 likes   

User avatar
terstorm1012
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1314
Age: 43
Joined: Fri Sep 10, 2004 5:36 pm
Location: Millersburg, PA

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#9407 Postby terstorm1012 » Thu Oct 06, 2016 8:01 pm

I'm not sure how current this upper air map is from unisys: http://weather.unisys.com/upper_air/ua_500.gif

it says 12z 10/6. But it looks like that upper high is still pretty strong over the coastal southeast.
anyone have a more current map?
0 likes   
my posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just my opinion (to which I welcome challenges!) and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

User avatar
FLpanhandle91
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1033
Age: 34
Joined: Mon Sep 13, 2010 3:50 pm
Location: Fort Walton Beach, FL

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#9408 Postby FLpanhandle91 » Thu Oct 06, 2016 8:01 pm

Sanibel wrote:Eye is clearing out. SSD is tracking the original small eye as the center.


To my nonprofessional eye, it appears as though the outer eye wall has not taken over as the dominant circulation. The inner eye has maintained a solid structure and has no warmed with a solid burst of colder cloud tops surrounding it. In fact, the northwestern quadrant (the part most likely to impact Florida) of the outer eye wall is looking absolutely fierce on radar.
Last edited by FLpanhandle91 on Thu Oct 06, 2016 8:05 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

ozonepete
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 4743
Joined: Mon Sep 07, 2009 3:23 pm
Location: From Ozone Park, NYC / Now in Brooklyn, NY

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#9409 Postby ozonepete » Thu Oct 06, 2016 8:02 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:back on a solid NW heading towards the coast.


Aric, where are you expecting landfall?
0 likes   

User avatar
jasons2k
Storm2k Executive
Storm2k Executive
Posts: 8245
Age: 51
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 12:32 pm
Location: The Woodlands, TX

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#9410 Postby jasons2k » Thu Oct 06, 2016 8:02 pm

Please stay on topic. I don't have time to clean the thread up. Some of the guilty ones are long time posters and should know better!
4 likes   

User avatar
Hammy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5849
Age: 41
Joined: Fri May 25, 2012 5:25 pm
Contact:

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#9411 Postby Hammy » Thu Oct 06, 2016 8:04 pm

Bryan Norcross is on TV talking about how strange it is that the inner eye wall is holding together as well as it is. Has this happened recently, having an ERC just halt like this and maintain form?
0 likes   
The above post is not official and should not be used as such. It is the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

ronyan
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 791
Age: 39
Joined: Tue Sep 09, 2008 5:46 pm
Location: Lake Jackson, TX

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#9412 Postby ronyan » Thu Oct 06, 2016 8:04 pm

Settlement Point station at 103 mph sustained.
https://www.wunderground.com/q/locid:SP ... ype:2?MR=1
2 likes   

HurrMark
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 769
Joined: Tue Aug 12, 2008 10:18 pm
Location: Somerville, MA

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#9413 Postby HurrMark » Thu Oct 06, 2016 8:04 pm

ozonepete wrote:

Absolutely, my friend. :)
But the "it's probably gonna miss" crowd, and I mean those with credentials to say that, needs to give hope to those who are being terrified by the manic media. There are very god signs that this will likely miss most or all of the coast. So people who are hunkered down can stay in place until the all clear but have a little more hope that their home will be there when they go back.


Pete, you're legit and appreciate all your input. And I get the optimism. I guess I just want to know why you are more confident this will miss land. Is it the more northerly track it took earlier today? Its current heading will take it over Cape Canaveral.
2 likes   

User avatar
Steve
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9621
Joined: Sat Apr 05, 2003 11:41 pm
Location: Not a state-caster

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#9414 Postby Steve » Thu Oct 06, 2016 8:04 pm

FLpanhandle91 wrote:
Sanibel wrote:Eye is clearing out. SSD is tracking the original small eye as the center.


To my nonprofessional eye, it appears as though the outer eye wall has not taken over as the dominant circulation. The inner eye has maintained a solid structure and has no warmed with a solid burst of colder cloud tops surrounding it. In fact, the northeastern quadrant (the part most likely to impact Florida) of the outer eye wall is looking absolutely fierce on radar.


They're part of the same system feeding off the energy. At times the circulations are distinct, but they're spinning and shooting out feeder bands. It particularly looks like the western side of the inner core may be almost the most intense at the moment. Luckily it looks far enough away from land to rotate some of that energy in, around and out before landfall.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif
0 likes   

User avatar
FLpanhandle91
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1033
Age: 34
Joined: Mon Sep 13, 2010 3:50 pm
Location: Fort Walton Beach, FL

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#9415 Postby FLpanhandle91 » Thu Oct 06, 2016 8:07 pm

Steve wrote:
FLpanhandle91 wrote:
Sanibel wrote:Eye is clearing out. SSD is tracking the original small eye as the center.


To my nonprofessional eye, it appears as though the outer eye wall has not taken over as the dominant circulation. The inner eye has maintained a solid structure and has no warmed with a solid burst of colder cloud tops surrounding it. In fact, the northeastern quadrant (the part most likely to impact Florida) of the outer eye wall is looking absolutely fierce on radar.


They're part of the same system feeding off the energy. At times the circulations are distinct, but they're spinning and shooting out feeder bands. It particularly looks like the western side of the inner core may be almost the most intense at the moment. Luckily it looks far enough away from land to rotate some of that energy in, around and out before landfall.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif


Forgive me. I meant to say northwestern quadrant. I almost feel this is a worse situation. Outer eyewall could come very far inland and produce hurricane into the middle of peninsula while the inner eyewall holds together and makes its way up the coast. Worst of both worlds.
1 likes   

tallywx
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 790
Joined: Thu Jul 03, 2003 10:19 am
Location: Raleigh/Durham, NC

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#9416 Postby tallywx » Thu Oct 06, 2016 8:08 pm

NOT THE OFFICIAL TRACK, but note - the 00z tropical suite is now all offshore:

Image
3 likes   

Frank P
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2776
Joined: Fri Aug 29, 2003 10:52 am
Location: Biloxi Beach, Ms
Contact:

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#9417 Postby Frank P » Thu Oct 06, 2016 8:08 pm

Steve wrote:Don't kill all us because we quoted something. Luckily I saved my reply to Frank P and can throw him the peace (I'll delete out the troll...

Hey Frank. Great to see you posting man. I'm glad it's not us this time, but I've enjoyed tracking this storm with you as we've been doing probably since the late 90's. Was great to see CFHC busting on that b.s. news clip earlier too.

I'm kind of scared for next year, but we'll see what happens. We still have the rest of this season to go. As always, you're posts are concise and on point. Matthew is greatness (acknowledging the tragedies) as far as hurricanes go. It's quite a storm for the history books for various reasons. I think the entire east coast of Florida, Georgia and maybe especially South Carolina are going to really bite it. Maybe the on-shore effects aren't Cat-4, but if there are Cat 1 or 2 feeder bands out front in the inner core, it's going to be a path of destruction. MSNBC was hyping how to get a 200 billion storm, but I'm thinking more $10-20 which was what I posted last night. Unless something crazy happens, this is going to be bad news for lots of people. Jacksonville has been the bullseye for action this year, and they, particularly maybe Jax Beach, looks for a coup de grace from 2016. We've been there baby. haha


Yeah Steve old pal ole Buddy, I hear ya loud and strong... no doubt this has been one of the most fascinating storms I've tracked in years... hoping for the best for FL but I really think they are going to get clobbered.. big time... some people have no idea what they will be facing in the coming days, weeks and months if it all plays out to fruition...... an 11 foot storm surge for the east coast would be like the MS coast getting a 25 foot surge, basically same effect since everything is built so low to sea level on the east coast of FL... I would think 20 billion at the minimum for sure.. gonna be costly.. probably everyone in the coastal areas will ultimately pay higher insurance rates in the future... Matthew will no doubt be retired... 11 years ago I would have been hoping I could have experienced such an event... Katrina has cured me of such silliness now... all I can do is hope it does not come to fruition but sadly it looks like its the real deal... Oh yeah, no doubt we've been there and even got the Tee shirt... :)
2 likes   

User avatar
Hypercane_Kyle
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3352
Joined: Sat Mar 07, 2015 7:58 pm
Location: Cape Canaveral, FL

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#9418 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Thu Oct 06, 2016 8:08 pm

Hammy wrote:Bryan Norcross is on TV talking about how strange it is that the inner eye wall is holding together as well as it is. Has this happened recently, having an ERC just halt like this and maintain form?


Matthew's inner core dynamics for the past week has been an absolute mystery to everyone. No doubt it'll make for some interesting papers soon.
1 likes   
My posts are my own personal opinion, defer to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and other NOAA products for decision making during hurricane season.

SunnyThoughts
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2263
Joined: Wed Jul 09, 2003 12:42 pm
Location: Pensacola, Florida

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#9419 Postby SunnyThoughts » Thu Oct 06, 2016 8:09 pm

Lowest Extrapolated Sfc. Pressure: 935.3 mb (27.62 inHg) from the recon thread
3 likes   

Rail Dawg
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 326
Joined: Mon Aug 27, 2012 5:02 pm
Location: Where the eye makes landfall.

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#9420 Postby Rail Dawg » Thu Oct 06, 2016 8:09 pm

As I drove in from Houston I saw THOUSANDS of electrical utility trucks heading east with me on I-10.

Plus many dozens of semis loaded with huge generators.

Good on them!!
4 likes   
Although I have been a hurricane forecaster since 1980 that only means I've been wrong lots of times.


Return to “2016”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 3 guests