ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Hurricaneman]

Lowest Extrapolated Sfc. Pressure: 935.3 mb (27.62 inHg) from the recon thread

Isn't that a pretty significant drop?

In hurricane terms, yes. 4 MB drop within a hour is rather significant.

looks like the inner eye has merged with the outer one on radar to some degree

[tallywx]

Lining up those fixes would have it missing Canaveral to the east by 10-20 miles.

[1900hurricane]

Miami radar down.

I'm still getting data from it.

[Frank P]

At the heading that is moving over all, I still see it making landfall near Cape Canaveral or just to the north of it if it continues through the night.

Yeah I would also think the Cape could be the landfall and if so poor Merritt Island will be completely under water... lots of nice houses devastated if this comes to fruition, along with facilities at the cape and KSC... been tracking consistently NW all day today, minus a wobble here or there, NHC forecast as usual spot on... hoping for the best for FL but not looking to good right now...

[JaxGator]

back on a solid NW heading towards the coast.

Aric, where are you expecting landfall?

pretty much central florida..

Not good at all. And just because the winds came down a bit, this is still a very dangerous major hurricane (and the pressure hasn't changed that much). My Family and I just finished boarding up and I'm glad that's over (but it's worth it).

[wxman57]

I didn't see any winds over 85 kts on the last couple of passes through the eye, and the winds will be weaker left of the track. It's also well east of the forecast. Might miss the east coast of Florida, yet. Much better than a strengthening Cat 4 heading into the coast near Palm Beach. Even Cat 1 hurricane winds can do a lot of damage, though.

[tolakram]

[im g]http://i.imgur.com/loTK1L7.png[/img]

Lining up those fixes would have it missing Canaveral to the east by 10-20 miles.

Agreed, but the models do not show a straight line nor does the NHC track. Hoping for an east wobble but I still think the cape is the most likely landfall point.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

[shawn67]

So I am showing the western inner eyewall to be 51 statute miles from the shore at West Palm Beach...Does that sound accurate?

[1900hurricane]

I didn't see any winds over 85 kts on the last couple of passes through the eye. It's also well east of the forecast. Might miss the east coast of Florida, yet. Much better than a strengthening Cat 4 heading into the coast near Palm Beach.

I've noticed that too. Looks like the outer eyewall is blowing up the pressure gradient pretty badly now.

[Steve]

The 00z early cycle guidance is slightly encouraging. It doesn't mean it won't be bad, but it would be nice if there were no landfalls or scrapes. It's so close though, and I'd probably go longer term with the European does at this point even if it's not for another 4+ hours.

HRRR 0Z isn't buying it though and builds this more WNW. I don't know for sure. Looks bad regardless.

[Hurricaneman]

pressure dropping but winds not responding because of the ERC is coming to a conclusion soon

[Aric Dunn]

Aric, where are you expecting landfall?

pretty much central florida..

You're not picking Satellite Beach, lol?

nope. been tracking th the overall system and still NW. the eye is wobbling and is about to due another westward circle.. ridging still in place. brevard northward

[Vdogg]

NOT THE OFFICIAL TRACK, but note - the 00z tropical suite is now all offshore:

http://i.imgur.com/OiwhP0t.png

Best case scenario.

Although it is very likely that the core of Matthew will stay offshore, the outer eyewall is going to scrape the east coast of Florida.

Also, it is 100% certain that Matthew will be retired after what it did to Haiti, extreme eastern Cuba and Grand Bahama.

Best case for Florida. Don't forget about points north. The models are tracking back to the Obx and the local media there and in SEVA have been sounding the all clear. A lot of folks are in for a shock tomorrow when the NHC moves the forecast back north.

[T'Bonz]

Anyone know of a site with wind estimates? I'm looking for stuff for Melbourne and Orlando. Thanks.

[Ken711]

I didn't see any winds over 85 kts on the last couple of passes through the eye, and the winds will be weaker left of the track. It's also well east of the forecast. Might miss the east coast of Florida, yet. Much better than a strengthening Cat 4 heading into the coast near Palm Beach. Even Cat 1 hurricane winds can do a lot of damage, though.

Any thoughts further North in regards to Matthews impact on GA/SC/NC?

[Madpoodle]

All Miami TV stations have stopped wall-to-wall hurricane coverage, I'm watching Thursday Night Football on WFOR (CBS)

#boycottnfl

[PTrackerLA]

The 00z early cycle guidance is slightly encouraging. It doesn't mean it won't be bad, but it would be nice if there were no landfalls or scrapes. It's so close though, and I'd probably go longer term with the European does at this point even if it's not for another 4+ hours.

HRRR 0Z isn't buying it though and builds this more WNW. I don't know for sure. Looks bad regardless.

Last couple of runs have been adamant that the eye comes ashore around Indian River/Brevard counties. Still can't rule that out I suppose.

[Soonercane]

Anyone know of a site with wind estimates? I'm looking for stuff for Melbourne and Orlando. Thanks.

NWS local point forecast?

[KC7NEC]

I'm prepared to make my call:

Merrit Island, 934mb, 134mph

[Aric Dunn]

Also could still wobble for an hour on a more NW heading and come in anywhere lol