ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Steve]

You're not picking Satellite Beach, lol?

nope. been tracking th the overall system and still NW. the eye is wobbling and is about to due another westward circle.. ridging still in place. brevard northward

I would also ask, don't you think with all tropical models offshore now that landfall is pretty unlikely?

Pete,

I would suggest that it's very possible that the 00z models, and particularly the test and tropical runs, being that it was 7:00pm my time, had an inner center that had been moving north for a couple of hours. It's just a theory, because I failed physics. So in my mind, when you add up the time they were run, they may not tell the whole story. The radar driven products and HRRR all want to landfall between not much farther north than it's at now and up by Daytona.

?

[tronbunny]

With the forward motion over the last 12 hours, I'm not seeing how these conditions will last more than 12 hours in ECFL.
NHC advisories are stating 12-24 hours of extreme weather.
Has anyone seen any models suggesting changes in forward speed?

[MGC]

Inner eye is about 60 NM from the coast. Long term average motion still to the NW. Pressure still falling so this is still a major threat to the EC of Florida......MGC

[meriland23]

Last recon has matt at 937 mb and 110 mph winds ((?)

[shawn67]

I'm calling landfall at Cocoa Beach, 942mb, 128mph sustained winds

[LarryWx]

He really looks like he may be on a sustained NNW track now since it goes back over 2 hours. If I see another 2-3 hours of NNW, I'm going to be convinced it is a sustained NNW motion. That would tell me he is east of models and increasingly likely he won't landfall anywhere on FL, which would obviously be wonderful if it were to occur. Keep hope alive.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Last recon has matt at 937 mb and 110 mph winds ((?)

Probably didn't sample the highest winds on that VDM. More than likely still 115 knots.

[fci]

Average motion over past 6 hours is about 325 deg. That heading, if maintained, would bring the center inland near Cape Canaveral. While it is still possible that the center misses land, it is by no means certain, and even a track a few miles offshore will still have huge impacts on east-central and northeast Florida.

The 'It's gonna miss'' crowd needs to chill.

If the NHC track comes anywhere close to verifying it is going to be horrendous from Brevard county north and a frighteningly close shave south of there to palm beach. Florida is under a threat for a long time...the storm has only passed the latitude of extreme south fl..

Passed my latitude at 8:00 in Central Palm Beach County

[tolakram]

[gatorcane]

He really looks like he may be on a sustained NNW track now since it goes back over 2 hours. If I see another 2-3 hours of NNW, I'm going to be convinced it is a sustained NNW motion. That would tell me he is east of models and increasingly likely he won't landfall anywhere on FL, which would obviously be wonderful if it were to occur. Keep hope alive.

Yeah that is what I am seeing, wouldn't surprise me if it doesn't make landfall at all. It is quite possible all of the really strong winds willl stay just offshore.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

[cjrciadt]

Getting more water and less wind so far in CFL... However, the double eyewall might bring mor Cat 1 winds thru East CFL despite less intrusion...

[got ants?]

Things are starting to settle down here in Hollywood. I was really expecting something from the second eyewall, but even it seem to resisting land, much like Matthew has pretty much his whole track. Now that not minimizing the lives lost or damage done, but it could have been worse, and he he keeps on, keeping on, or actually, off...

[jasons2k]

Wxman 57 should have cleared it up for everyone. Matthew has been tracking east of the NHC forecast points all day. It will still be a devastating storm for Florida, and not to diminish the effects of a major hurricane, but a brush with the outer eyewall of a 120-130mph storm is not nearly the same as a direct hit from a 145mph storm. It just isn't. The story with this storm may end-up being storm surge further north.

[stephen23]

If this thing doesn't make landfall in Florida then I would think storm surge for Georgia would just be going up. Stacking water from south Florida all the way up and shoving it into the bend.

[Rail Dawg]

Mark the Admin dude please keep posting the animated radar plot.

Very helpful for those of us bunkered in parking garages.

Thanks!!

[smithtim]

nope. been tracking th the overall system and still NW. the eye is wobbling and is about to due another westward circle.. ridging still in place. brevard northward

I would also ask, don't you think with all tropical models offshore now that landfall is pretty unlikely?

we all know how this goes.. wobble wobble.. if you still looking at the models for the 12 to 24 hours its pointless. .but enjoy ..

Agreed 100%

Basic trigonometry at this point...he's 70 miles of WPI heading 45 west of due north....Florida coast angel is about 20 west of due north...those lines meet around cape Kennedy.
Of course that's assuming continues on current path direction which will slightly deviate few degrees; from current surounding eniviorment don't see anything changing track significantly? But of course as a resident of coastal FLa I'm hoping for a turn more to N!

The good news is if does make landfall anywhere in FLa east coast that's about best for us as it's undeveloped uninhabited National Seashore

[adam0983]

Did Nicole make Matthew go further east. The Euro/Gfs model called for this storm to be much further west.

[fci]

I saw the interview with the rep from FPL he did say they were expecting 2.5 mill outages.

Very possible. Just letting ya know what I've been briefed on. And 2.5 million would blow anything I've been on out of the water. I think sandy was 750,000 at peak. And it was absolutely insane!!![/quote]

Weird.
Press releases say 1.2 million but I also saw the interview on WPTV where he said 2.5 million.

[skufful]

Wxman 57 should have cleared it up for everyone. Matthew has been tracking east of the NHC forecast points all day. It will still be a devastating storm for Florida, and not to diminish the effects of a major hurricane, but a brush with the outer eyewall of a 120-130mph storm is not nearly the same as a direct hit from a 145mph storm. It just isn't. The story with this storm may end-up being storm surge further north.

Do you think it will possibly recurve earlier then forecast? We are in Beaufort, South Carolina and would love for it to go out to sea.

[CrazyC83]

All Miami TV stations have stopped wall-to-wall hurricane coverage, I'm watching Thursday Night Football on WFOR (CBS)

I think that's pretty dangerous and irresponsible, hurricanes can always take surprise dips and turns, and it's still catastrophic for the upper 2/3rds of the east FL coast and I'd hope to think that all FL citizens would be worried and inclined to know what's coming.

Makes total sense to me for Miami stations to resume programming. The event is over for them.

Also the Miami market ends at Broward County.