BULLETIN
HURRICANE NICOLE ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016
1100 PM AST THU OCT 06 2016
...NICOLE BECOMES A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...27.4N 65.2W
ABOUT 340 MI...545 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.59 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Nicole was
located near latitude 27.4 North, longitude 65.2 West. Nicole is
currently stationary but is expected to drift generally southward on
Friday and Saturday.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 105 mph (165
km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening is likely to begin on
Friday with Nicole.
Nicole is a small tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds extend
outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-
force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 968 mb (28.59 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells associated with Nicole, along with rough surf
conditions, will affect Bermuda for the next few days.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.
$$
Forecaster Blake
HURRICANE NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016
1100 PM AST THU OCT 06 2016
Nicole has rapidly intensified during the day, with a pinhole eye
apparent in satellite and microwave imagery. Although the eye has
recently become obscured, Dvorak satellite estimates support an
initial intensity of 90 kt for this advisory. All of the guidance
suggests that the shear near Nicole should increase during the next
couple of days since the tropical cyclone will be in an environment
of increasingly strong upper-level northerly winds. Thus Nicole
is probably near its peak intensity, and slow weakening is forecast
from Friday through the weekend. The large-scale environment
could become more conducive for re-intensification by days 4 or 5,
and some restrengthening is shown around that time. The new
intensity forecast is very close to the previous one, slightly above
the model consensus.
Nicole has moved very little during the past several hours. The
hurricane will likely begin to drift southward by tomorrow
afternoon due to steering from the western side of a mid-level
trough. Thereafter, Nicole could gradually turn toward the
southwest, west, and northwest over the next few days around a
ridge over the western Atlantic Ocean. There is better agreement in
the guidance than yesterday, although the ECMWF remains a bit of an
outlier solution to the east. Since a stronger system would likely
respond more to the deep-layer northerly flow, the new NHC track is
shifted a bit to the south of the previous forecast in a couple of
days, but ends up close to the last NHC advisory by day 5.
A climate note: This is the first time since September 10, 1964
that two Category 2 (or stronger) hurricanes have occurred
simultaneously in the Atlantic basin west of 65W. Interestingly,
those hurricanes in 1964, Dora and Ethel, were in similar positions
as Matthew and Nicole are now.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 07/0300Z 27.4N 65.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 07/1200Z 27.3N 65.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 08/0000Z 26.8N 65.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 08/1200Z 26.1N 64.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 09/0000Z 25.5N 64.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 10/0000Z 26.0N 66.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 11/0000Z 27.5N 67.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 12/0000Z 29.0N 68.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
$$
Forecaster Blake
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