ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Fountainguy97]

Remember guys an ERWC can take easily 24-36 hrs to complete so it's not taking its sweet time it's actually doing it fairly quickly

[Blown Away]

60+ gusts in Hobe Sound... Picking up...

[fci]

Palm Beach International with a gust to 98 mph.

Where you get that from? I don't see that.

https://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/fi ... query=KPBI

Bad data.

[ObsessedMiami]

Frankly disgusted by social media chatter in Miami complaining "Nothing happened", media hype, etc. No win situation for NHC. People obviously think Matthew didn't really exist and was a creation of Publix, Home Depot and the media.

[Steve]

It moves it to the coast in 3-4 hours. We'll know if it was right before the European runs, maybe even the finale of whatever the GFS shows. Btw, 7 hours still partially on that coast. That's howling weather there. Orlando metro easily in the western eyewall if HRRR is on it.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... s=0&ypos=0

HRRR seems to have too much of a westward movement at the start of the run, that seems to throw off the rest of it.

On that note, someone in Titusville (who already has the shutters up) asked how their house will fare, so what sort of winds should I tell them to assume they'll be waking up to?

$1,000 question. Could be a nasty few hours of Cat 1 type conditions or might be tropical storm type conditions. I think all along even with the landfalling models, Matthew's worst weather stayed offshore until coastal South Carolina. But the wildcard was always if it went inland, and if it was an intensifying 3 or 4 (which as well all know is mostly over water).

[ronyan]

Where you get that from? I don't see that.

https://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/fi ... query=KPBI

Bad data.

OK...how do you know? I assume international airports are calibrated.

[bevgo]

Thanks so much Stephen23

[Sanibel]

Anyone know of a live news cast to stream coming out of Melbourne? I am wearing out my remote up here (ohio) trying to find live casts.

MSNBC has a man in Melbourne. He just interviewed a restaurant owner who evacuated his family to his restaurant blocks from the shore because it was a sturdier structure. When asked if he feared only being blocks from the ocean he said "We are Floridians, and we are used to these hurricanes".

[NDG]

Latest recon suggests that the inner eyewall is weakening, winds not as strong as earlier, pressure the same or maybe up a mb or two.

[ncweatherwizard]

Aircraft showing ~75kt FL winds in SW quadrant of outer and inner eyewall. About 105kts in NE quadrant of inner.

[WilmingtonSandbar]

It's interesting to see the snapshots of this board a couple hours apart. When i was last on around 6:30-7ish, I asked if anyone noticed the 18z GFS keeping Matthew offshore of Florida and sending it further north and closer to the NC coast. Everyone was so focused on the fact that they just knew Matt was going to make landfall in their location in the next couple hours that, other than for a few people, my question was basically ignored. The few people that responded basically thought it was an anomaly and more model runs were needed. While i completely understand that 1 run does not make a trend, the GFS and Euro have been doing a decent job for the most part on the storm, in the big long picture of things anyway. Now, I return 3 to 4 hours later, and the board has calmed down immensely with the imminent landfall discussions, and people are actually talking about it missing Florida all together, and NC may be in play again. I wonder where i heard that before? These snapshots in time, are really fun.

[dukeblue219]

Latest recon suggests that the inner eyewall is weakening, winds not as strong as earlier, pressure the same or maybe up a mb or two.

Hmm? I see they extrapolated 936mb and actually found 109kt surface winds. That pressure is basically even (need to see a dropsonde in the center) and it's a higher wind speed than the previous plane was finding recently.

[slamdaddy]

not an expert...but that's a strange looking ERC

[HurricaneFrances04]

By far having our worst conditions (just south of the airport). Definitely had a few gusts approach hurricane strength.

[Ptarmigan]

Palm Beach International with a gust to 98 mph.

Palm Beach International Airport
http://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KPBI.html

Highest gust reported was 44 mph. Nothing available afterwards.

[wxmann_91]

Frankly disgusted by social media chatter in Miami complaining "Nothing happened", media hype, etc. No win situation for NHC. People obviously think Matthew didn't really exist and was a creation of Publix, Home Depot and the media.

It's a no-win situation.

[WeatherOrKnot]

By far having our worst conditions (just south of the airport). Definitely had a few gusts approach hurricane strength.

We are just southwest of airport and same situation.

[AdamFirst]

Kind of regretting/annoyed I evacuated for this, but that's the chance you take. My house in Port Saint Lucie still has power - could have slept in my big bed tonight rather than an air mattress on the floor in my sister's living room in Coral Springs.

It ain't over yet for PSL. Won't get the eyewall, but there's some good bands incoming. Regardless, better to regret evacuating when it turned out ok than take the chance and regret NOT evacuating.

You made the sensible choice.

Maybe I'm just bored down here. This 49ers/Cardinals game is dreadful

Gusting pretty good with passing embedded squalls here in Coral Springs though. 40-50 MPH easily.

[Steve H.]

Really Windsor howling in Palm Bay right now and it will get worse

[ronyan]

Sorry for the bad report, delete those posts. Wunderground site should not be doing that.