ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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psyclone
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#9601 Postby psyclone » Thu Oct 06, 2016 9:49 pm

fci wrote:
WilmingtonSandbar wrote:It's interesting to see the snapshots of this board a couple hours apart. When i was last on around 6:30-7ish, I asked if anyone noticed the 18z GFS keeping Matthew offshore of Florida and sending it further north and closer to the NC coast. Everyone was so focused on the fact that they just knew Matt was going to make landfall in their location in the next couple hours that, other than for a few people, my question was basically ignored. The few people that responded basically thought it was an anomaly and more model runs were needed. While i completely understand that 1 run does not make a trend, the GFS and Euro have been doing a decent job for the most part on the storm, in the big long picture of things anyway. Now, I return 3 to 4 hours later, and the board has calmed down immensely with the imminent landfall discussions, and people are actually talking about it missing Florida all together, and NC may be in play again. I wonder where i heard that before? These snapshots in time, are really fun.


With all due respect when a Category 4 storm is threatening your area; talk about what's going to happen in a few days takes a back seat.
Is that a surprise to you?


It's also a function of the geographic distribution of posters. We have a boatload of Florida folks on here and while I can't speak for the rest of them...when the cane is in radar range...I'm not looking a models. North Carolina will get its deserved attention in due time. But first we have FL/GA/SC.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#9602 Postby 1900hurricane » Thu Oct 06, 2016 9:49 pm

abajan wrote:Wow, the Storm2K map at the top of the forums is really updating fast lately. It now has Matthew as a Cat 3. So, I'm assuming winds will be down in the 11 PM advisory.

It's an old discrepancy with the 115 kt intensity on the SSHS. 115 kt is 132 mi/hr, which technically rounds to 130 mi/hr. On the old SSHS, 131 mi/hr is the lowest velocity allowed for a category 4 hurricane. 115 kt makes the cut, but the rounded 130 mi/hr doesn't. The updated SSHWS rectifies this by allowing the rounded 130 mi/hr to exist as a category 4 intensity.

The old SSHS also had another funky breakpoint like that at the other end of the category 4 intensity that was also fixed with the updated SSHWS.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#9603 Postby NDG » Thu Oct 06, 2016 9:49 pm

One thing for sure is that strong winds have expanded on its NE quadrant, is not just near its inner eyewall.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#9604 Postby ozonepete » Thu Oct 06, 2016 9:50 pm

stephen23 wrote:BIG jog to the west in progress it appears on radar


There is not a BIG jog and each of these little jogs does not indicate a track change. You are watching wobbles due to trochoidal oscillations (wiggles) in the storm's path.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#9605 Postby weatherSnoop » Thu Oct 06, 2016 9:50 pm

ObsessedMiami wrote:Frankly disgusted by social media chatter in Miami complaining "Nothing happened", media hype, etc. No win situation for NHC. People obviously think Matthew didn't really exist and was a creation of Publix, Home Depot and the media.


I wonder if those are the same people that complained yesterday that no Hurricane warnings had been issued for Dade county
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#9606 Postby eastcoastFL » Thu Oct 06, 2016 9:51 pm

HurricaneFrances04 wrote:
eastcoastFL wrote:
WeatherOrKnot wrote:
We are just southwest of airport and same situation.


What airport?


Palm Beach International. Looking at the radar, we had a strong band move through.



Ok thanks. In psl here waiting to see how bad it gets.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#9607 Postby rickybobby » Thu Oct 06, 2016 9:51 pm

weathaguyry wrote:
weathaguyry wrote:Ok, so bad situation, I have a family friend in Port Orange ,6 miles inland, and I asked her earlier if she had everything ready and she did, and I asked if her shutters were on securely, and she said that she didn't have shutters!!!!!!!! I am very very nervous for her, she said that she had her car packed up in case they had had to leave (don't see the use for that.) Can you guys please tell me what to tell her, she still has power and phone reception, she has everything from outside inside, and she had food, water, and gas in the car. Any help is well appreciated!!!


Not to be annoying, but I'm trying to get this message out


I live in po and they are fine. I also don't have shutters. My sis lives in a neighborhood with houses over $600k and most of them don't have shutters. It's not raining right now and I'm driving around til midnight when curfew takes in effect.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#9608 Postby stormlover2013 » Thu Oct 06, 2016 9:53 pm

That's not a huge job to the west come on dude
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#9609 Postby Blown Away » Thu Oct 06, 2016 9:53 pm

So what are the conditions inside the big eye? @30 miles from big outer eye wall to small center?
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#9610 Postby delta lady » Thu Oct 06, 2016 9:54 pm

Rail Dawg wrote:As I drove in from Houston I saw THOUSANDS of electrical utility trucks heading east with me on I-10.

Plus many dozens of semis loaded with huge generators.

Good on them!!


A couple days ago, the Governor said that he had 6,000 out of state utility workers coming in. Charlie taught Florida a good lesson. He should have thought about some lumberjacks.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#9611 Postby Ken711 » Thu Oct 06, 2016 9:54 pm

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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#9612 Postby weathaguyry » Thu Oct 06, 2016 9:54 pm

rickybobby wrote:
weathaguyry wrote:
weathaguyry wrote:Ok, so bad situation, I have a family friend in Port Orange ,6 miles inland, and I asked her earlier if she had everything ready and she did, and I asked if her shutters were on securely, and she said that she didn't have shutters!!!!!!!! I am very very nervous for her, she said that she had her car packed up in case they had had to leave (don't see the use for that.) Can you guys please tell me what to tell her, she still has power and phone reception, she has everything from outside inside, and she had food, water, and gas in the car. Any help is well appreciated!!!


Not to be annoying, but I'm trying to get this message out


I live in po and they are fine. I also don't have shutters. My sis lives in a neighborhood with houses over $600k and most of them don't have shutters. It's not raining right now and I'm driving around til midnight when curfew takes in effect.


Thank you so much! This makes me comforted, I can now have a restful sleep knowing that they will be safe! :lol:
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#9613 Postby T'Bonz » Thu Oct 06, 2016 9:55 pm

It is for me. We broke it! (NHC site down)
Last edited by T'Bonz on Thu Oct 06, 2016 9:55 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#9614 Postby Raebie » Thu Oct 06, 2016 9:55 pm

1900hurricane wrote:
abajan wrote:Wow, the Storm2K map at the top of the forums is really updating fast lately. It now has Matthew as a Cat 3. So, I'm assuming winds will be down in the 11 PM advisory.

It's an old discrepancy with the 115 kt intensity on the SSHS. 115 kt is 132 mi/hr, which technically rounds to 130 mi/hr. On the old SSHS, 131 mi/hr is the lowest velocity allowed for a category 4 hurricane. 115 kt makes the cut, but the rounded 130 mi/hr doesn't. The updated SSHWS rectifies this by allowing the rounded 130 mi/hr to exist as a category 4 intensity.

The old SSHS also had another funky breakpoint like that at the other end of the category 4 intensity that was also fixed with the updated SSHWS.


I think his post was about awareness, not attention. Alot of folks in NC have decided not to evacuate due to the forecasts and models in the past 24 hours.

Bu the time you decide it's worthy of your attention, it might be too late.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#9615 Postby NDG » Thu Oct 06, 2016 9:56 pm

With each passing hour I really doubt the HRRR will come to fruition of a more WNW to NW track closer to the east central FL coast.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#9616 Postby sandy18 » Thu Oct 06, 2016 9:56 pm

Has anyone else had trouble loading NHC site? I can not get into it
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#9617 Postby Sanibel » Thu Oct 06, 2016 9:56 pm

Ken711 wrote:http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

System down?



Edit: Never mind. Wrong site.
Last edited by Sanibel on Thu Oct 06, 2016 9:57 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#9618 Postby dukeblue219 » Thu Oct 06, 2016 9:57 pm

Sanibel wrote:
Ken711 wrote:http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

System down?



I think they dropped that URL and went to weather.gov


In the last half hour?

Snarky comment aside, weather.gov is the NWS. The NHC is still nhc.noaa.gov. Not working for me either.
Last edited by dukeblue219 on Thu Oct 06, 2016 9:58 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#9619 Postby T'Bonz » Thu Oct 06, 2016 9:57 pm

NHC is back up.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#9620 Postby Ken711 » Thu Oct 06, 2016 9:57 pm

Sanibel wrote:
Ken711 wrote:http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

System down?



I think they dropped that URL and went to weather.gov


Too many users trying to access it I suspect.
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