ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[NFLnut]

It's a no-win situation.

Yup, and when another one shows up, they will be complacent and be told they were "never warned."

Well I live in Lake Worth where to worst we have gotten is Tropical Storm winds. Put up shutters and prepared for the worst.
Given a Hurricane Warning in the future, I will do the same exact thing.

Exactly. This storm was (is) a different animal that was a Cat 5 just a few days ago and the slow movement and the changing conditions ahead of it made it very tough to get a handle on. I say that even if they are off by 50 miles and it doesn't make landfall (still might too) then they did a pretty damn good job! It's still somewhere in the middle of the cone. Now, for MY sake I hope it IS off by about 30-50 miles or more and it misses a spacecoast or New Smyrna/Daytona Beach landfall so hopefully I don't lose power again and have a tree in my living room. I would still prepare next time (and I've been prepared for the season since June).

[NDG]

New NHC track has shifted east about 20 miles, good news for Orlando.

[Uhoh13]

Newbie here, first post. First I would like to pray for all the folks impacted by this hurricane. Been a long time spectator here. I appreciate the immense insight here. Very interesting. I grew up in the Tampa/ Clearwater beach area and own rental property there, so I have a vested interest in the hurricane season.

Stupid question time, could Matthew merge with Nicole and become a mega storm? The loop of Matthew could be very interesting for a second run at the state. Thanks everyone.

[Skogebo]

I'm more of a lurker/observer here and only recently actually joined. Wanted to point out to all of you that you seem to have turned on each other rather quickly. It's disappointing to read. Enough already. Can you just get back to talking about Matthew?

[gatorcane]

Latest NHC track doesn't even make landfall in Florida any longer, close to Cape Canaveral though. Pretty gusty winds here in Boca lately, higher than I thought we would get at this point probably right around 50mph gusts.

[Steve]

That's not a huge job to the west come on dude

It may not last, but you can see the motion. Get longer term radar. Yeah, the original eye/center has been overall more NNW which the NHC has granted, but the overall motion of the system has been NW. I haven't plotted but I agree with those who have quoted between 323-328. Now in NW mode for the last few wobbles. It will probably hook back N, but it's still generally moving toward the coast in my opinion regardless of whether the center does.

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... 1&loop=yes

[Hurricaneman]

With each passing hour I really doubt the HRRR will come to fruition of a more WNW to NW track closer to the east central FL coast.

Who knows that wobble wnw, is it a change in direction or is it just a wobble

[otterlyspicey]

Off the wall question that I have been wondering... is the issue with Matthew basically fighting with himself between the smaller and larger eyes... is this all from him going over the mountainous terrain of Cuba and never fully recovering from that? Or would this have likely happened regardless, even if he avoided land.

The eyewall replacement is a normal cycle in the most powerful hurricanes. They are almost never caused by terrain and this one certainly had no influence from passage over Cuba. But once they start they can be disrupted by terrain for sure and then never complete. Each case is different.

Ok thank you. That's what I thought. I guess the confusion on The Weather Channel about what is happening with the eye(s) and them saying they've never seen a situation with the eye(s) like this confused me further. Thanks for the answer!

[terstorm1012]

NHC site is down, the message I get is "www.nhc.noaa.gov’s server DNS address could not be found."

Anywhere else to get the advisory?

[weathaguyry]

Has anyone else had trouble loading NHC site? I can not get into it

Us storm2k users must have refreshed the website looking for the newest update too much, and burnt out the system (only kidding )

[Sanibel]

Those bands should rotate into Ft Pierce and give their bushes a good shake.

[ronyan]

I'm not able to access NHC site.

[abajan]

The NHC website has crashed. I can't reach it and the guys at this channel just mentioned it.

[Hurrilurker]

Interesting, all the NOAA web pages, including satellite imagery, just went offline.

[weathaguyry]

Go on the NOAA now app it works perfect

[Raebie]

It's interesting to see the snapshots of this board a couple hours apart. When i was last on around 6:30-7ish, I asked if anyone noticed the 18z GFS keeping Matthew offshore of Florida and sending it further north and closer to the NC coast. Everyone was so focused on the fact that they just knew Matt was going to make landfall in their location in the next couple hours that, other than for a few people, my question was basically ignored. The few people that responded basically thought it was an anomaly and more model runs were needed. While i completely understand that 1 run does not make a trend, the GFS and Euro have been doing a decent job for the most part on the storm, in the big long picture of things anyway. Now, I return 3 to 4 hours later, and the board has calmed down immensely with the imminent landfall discussions, and people are actually talking about it missing Florida all together, and NC may be in play again. I wonder where i heard that before? These snapshots in time, are really fun.

With all due respect when a Category 4 storm is threatening your area; talk about what's going to happen in a few days takes a back seat.
Is that a surprise to you?

It's also a function of the geographic distribution of posters. We have a boatload of Florida folks on here and while I can't speak for the rest of them...when the cane is in radar range...I'm not looking a models. North Carolina will get its deserved attention in due time. But first we have FL/GA/SC.

I think his post was about awareness, not attention. Alot of folks in NC have decided not to evacuate due to the forecasts and models in the past 24 hours.

Bu the time you decide it's worthy of your attention, it might be too late.

[SapphireSea]

Frankly disgusted by social media chatter in Miami complaining "Nothing happened", media hype, etc. No win situation for NHC. People obviously think Matthew didn't really exist and was a creation of Publix, Home Depot and the media.

Don't forget too that there is now that stupid conspiracy theory that the government fudged the wind speed

I mentioned that this was the risk of incremented warnings to Hurriane Watch/Warnings based on some WWard shifts in models. This was also in relation to a promet who mentioned that more often than not do W side of the storms often decrement in effects rapidly as you get away from the center. The center was safer than sorry, but I do think some efforts need to go and educate the public things some of us amateur "experts" and chasers know about what winds look like. I know for a fact that part of the problem; I have asked a couple neighbors last night to show me what 40mph winds look like on youtube and they showed me scenes from Andrew (Blowing 110kt at the footage), scenes from a severe storm gust along the beach (75kt), and a scene from a chase in Haiyan (100kt). I then asked to show me what 20mph winds look like and they show me a few breezy days.

Further education should also include the fact that on land wind is going to be much less than over water which is what the NHC issues its wind speed forecasts for, and even then there are multiple localized factors that can mitigate or increase the wind observed. For the more dangerous aspects of hurricane such as Flood and Surge, there is nothing more that can be done to stress the concern, I think most people understand what surge looks like after Katrina, and Sandy.

TLDR: Wind is such an awful measurement of hurricane threat. Truthfully wind effect / warning level needs to be re-evaluated for warnings. A storm thats Cat 1 that is in position to create a giant surge should have more aggressive warning and recommendations than a Cat 4 that poses small risk for Flood and Surge damage. Indirect areas of landfall < 30% should also have less aggressive warning recommendation.

[utweather]

Do y'all think it will weaken that much if it misses the coast and re-curves back???

[Blinhart]

Looks like West Palm Beach is getting pounded right now, good thing they weren't suppose to get anything (sorry, lil sarcasm from last night), might be only 32 sustained but I'm sure they are getting gusts up to 50 or 60 right now and will just get worse as the night goes.

[abajan]

NHC site is down, the message I get is "www.nhc.noaa.gov’s server DNS address could not be found."

Anywhere else to get the advisory?

No, but the info I have is that the winds are down to 125 mph and the track has shifted a bit to the east.