ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Hurricaneman]

seems a bit WSW of the hurricane center path but it may just be a long term wobble and not a true change in trajectory

[Vdogg]

So that NHC track....wow. Might as well just throw a dart at a board at this point...

[abajan]

Still down for me.

Me too. Try unplugging your router, waiting a minute and then plugging it back in. Worked for me when I had a similar problem loading PayPal's website a few days ago.

[ncweatherwizard]

An interesting tidbit from NHC tonight: A climate note: This is the first time since September 10, 1964 that two Category 2 (or stronger) hurricanes have occurred simultaneously in the Atlantic basin west of 65W. Interestingly, those hurricanes in 1964, Dora and Ethel, were in similar positions as Matthew and Nicole are now.

Wonder who dug that one up.

I have to admit I've been so focused on Matthew I didn't even realize Nicole had reached category two.

According to Eric Blake's twitter, it sounds like Dan Brown (at NHC, not the guy who writes a bunch of books with essentially the same plot evolution each time) was the brains behind this fact.

[ronyan]

Still down for me.

Me too. Try unplugging your router, waiting a minute and then plugging it back in. Worked for me when I had a similar problem loading PayPal's website a few days ago.

I believe there is still an outage in the broader network.

[WilmingtonSandbar]

It's interesting to see the snapshots of this board a couple hours apart. When i was last on around 6:30-7ish, I asked if anyone noticed the 18z GFS keeping Matthew offshore of Florida and sending it further north and closer to the NC coast. Everyone was so focused on the fact that they just knew Matt was going to make landfall in their location in the next couple hours that, other than for a few people, my question was basically ignored. The few people that responded basically thought it was an anomaly and more model runs were needed. While i completely understand that 1 run does not make a trend, the GFS and Euro have been doing a decent job for the most part on the storm, in the big long picture of things anyway. Now, I return 3 to 4 hours later, and the board has calmed down immensely with the imminent landfall discussions, and people are actually talking about it missing Florida all together, and NC may be in play again. I wonder where i heard that before? These snapshots in time, are really fun.

With all due respect when a Category 4 storm is threatening your area; talk about what's going to happen in a few days takes a back seat.
Is that a surprise to you?

It's also a function of the geographic distribution of posters. We have a boatload of Florida folks on here and while I can't speak for the rest of them...when the cane is in radar range...I'm not looking a models. North Carolina will get its deserved attention in due time. But first we have FL/GA/SC.

I'm going to have to disagree with you on one point Psyclone. Even though this board is probably in the top 3 of tropical weather information sites, it has always been notoriously Florida centric. When Matthew clears Florida, traffic will drop off 80% from what it is now. GA, SC, and NC will not "get it's deserved attention". I'm not upset. I know that at least 80%, and probably 90% of the members are from Florida, so I understand. I just wish that the zeal for tropical weather was as strong when Florida wasn't effected.

[JKingTampa]

Still down for me.

Me too. Try unplugging your router, waiting a minute and then plugging it back in. Worked for me when I had a similar problem loading PayPal's website a few days ago.

I believe there is still an outage in the broader network.

I just got it back, not really working the best though lol.

[KC7NEC]

Still down for me.

Me too. Try unplugging your router, waiting a minute and then plugging it back in. Worked for me when I had a similar problem loading PayPal's website a few days ago.

It's not your connection or equipment. The site itself is basically having a DDoS attack unintentionally by MILLIONS of people attempting to access it.

[utweather]

So that NHC track....wow. Might as well just throw a dart at a board at this point...

Looks like its following the path they have been predicting once the european model first showed the loop off the sc/nc coast.
Hugging the coast, 130mph.

I'm just wondering about the intensity. How many times has an already strong storm come in from the north??

[Uhoh13]

This thing is licking the coast like a cat on bowl of tuna, I just hope it doesn't loop and go gom and keep creating havoc.

[Aric Dunn]

Radar showing another wobble more to yhe wnw to nw. Heading still right towards central florida

I have a calibrated napkin that when I line up the various points appears to show it missing the cape by a smidgen. My technique is infallible. What I do note is that the larger eye may indeed bring the eyewall over the cape, though not count as a landfall.

Agreed.. my home made ruller from a papertowel roll shows a circular motion then straight then zig zag with a side stall. Hopefully it all pans out. . :p

[hurricaneCW]

Surge is going to be rough, all that water will pile towards the coast especially further north where it'll funnel in. I think people will be surprised just how much damage this will cause despite being slightly further east than predicted.

[ronyan]

I have a feeling there may have been some power outages with the other members, or they are out watching.

[sbcc]

Still down for me.

Me too. Try unplugging your router, waiting a minute and then plugging it back in. Worked for me when I had a similar problem loading PayPal's website a few days ago.

It's not your connection or equipment. The site itself is basically having a DDoS attack unintentionally by MILLIONS of people attempting to access it.

I just switched from my ISP's DNS servers (CenturyLink) to Google's (8.8.8.8) and the NHC loaded instantly.

[Sanibel]

Banding tightening on outer eyewall over Gulf Stream.

[MetroMike]

Well if the NHC official track verifies throughout the period then officially the drought for a major hurricane hitting the U.S.will
continue...hmmmm

[Andrew92]

Radar showing another wobble more to yhe wnw to nw. Heading still right towards central florida

I have a calibrated napkin that when I line up the various points appears to show it missing the cape by a smidgen. My technique is infallible. What I do note is that the larger eye may indeed bring the eyewall over the cape, though not count as a landfall.

It won't count as a landfall in that situation, I agree. However, I think it would still be a "hit" according to the records if Matthew's eyewall comes ashore like that. Kinda like Emily (1993), Alex (2004), and Ophelia (2005). Someone correct me if I am wrong!

-Andrew92

[kpost]

I have to wonder how many people truly understand just how dangerous the storm surge could be? It comes in so fast that you barely have time to process what's happening.

So very true, even inches of surge have an amazing power. In 08 I had my family at cocoa beach to wave watch as my husband surfed. There was a tropical system far off the coast providing amazing waves, while we enjoyed blue sky's. In the blink of the eye all of the beach was covered in 6-8 in. of water and rapidly rising. Getting my kids off the beach was 100x harder than I ever could have imagined and the water was sweeping me off my feet. There was zero warning and went all the way to the dunes...cocoa is a much deeper (distance dune to ocean) beach than others in the area. It makes me sick to my stomach to imagine the surge possibilities that some may deal with......and no this was not hide tide, I am well aware of the local tides. This event also made the tide coming in seem slow and soft in comparison.

Bottom line is Surge is scary

[SapphireSea]

Surge is going to be rough, all that water will pile towards the coast especially further north where it'll funnel in. I think people will be surprised just how much damage this will cause despite being slightly further east than predicted.

This is traveling parallel to the coast, the surge threat with this one is a bit lower. Surge is higher when the storm travels directly towards a direction, particularly when the NE side of the storm makes a direct line to a coast. Wont say there would be zero surge should it veer WNW but, less that it could have been.

[Sanibel]

The Florida shield would still be in place.