ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[sbcc]

Was going to ask what a dropsonde was but I googled it. Similar to the sono buoys we used in the navy. Sorry for my newbishness.

Great place to ask questions. I've learned so much here. Also great when you can find the answer to a question yourself.

[Hammy]

At the moment, how likely is it that Cape Canaveral gets Cat 2 conditions?

[ronyan]

How much surge at Merritt Island? I'm talking to a guy riding it out there at he claims 5ft elevation.

[KC7NEC]

At the moment, how likely is it that Cape Canaveral gets Cat 2 conditions?

I will be surprised if the don't. Very likely CAT 4 and close to the eye

[Patricia]

I'm wondering how Vero beach is doing because that eye is close! Anybody have an update?

[sbcc]

I'm wondering how Vero beach is doing because that eye is close! Anybody have an update?

43 mph gusting to 71 at the airport 8 min ago. In a big band before the eyewall.
https://www.wunderground.com/us/fl/vero-beach-municipal/zmw:32960.4.99999

[CronkPSU]

pressure dropped a mb but winds down to 120

[Aric Dunn]

At the moment, how likely is it that Cape Canaveral gets Cat 2 conditions?

its coming.,.

[Andrew92]

Winds down to 120 mph. Pressure still at 938 mb. Moving northwest now at 14 mph, I thought it looked a little faster overall relative to the 12 hour position when the 11 PM advisory came out.

Good night everyone! Good luck to everyone in Matthew's path.

-Andrew92

[Patricia]

I'm wondering how Vero beach is doing because that eye is close! Anybody have an update?

43 mph gusting to 71 at the airport 8 min ago.

Thanks.

[JKingTampa]

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185
miles (295 km). During the past hour, a wind gust to 70 mph (113
km/h) was reported at Vero Beach, Florida, and a gust to 60 mph
occurred at Melbourne, Florida.

Tropical Storm winds of 185 miles outward is pretty significant considering the width of the Peninsula is less than that.

[Hammy]

Outer eye wall headed towards Melbourne, in 2-3 hours as per TWC.

And is it me, or is this not moving in a straight line, but very slightly curving left?

[shawn67]

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 7th day of the month at 05:43Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 307)
Storm Number & Year: 14L in 2016
Storm Name: Matthew (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 31
Observation Number: 18
A. Time of Center Fix: 7th day of the month at 5:07:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 27°31'N 79°36'W (27.5167N 79.6W)
B. Center Fix Location: 63 miles (101 km) to the NNE (27°) from West Palm Beach, FL, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,577m (8,455ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 76kts (~ 87.5mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 30 nautical miles (35 statute miles) to the SE (134°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 209° at 90kts (From the SSW at ~ 103.6mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 36 nautical miles (41 statute miles) to the SE (133°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 938mb (27.70 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 12°C (54°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,044m (9,987ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,043m (9,984ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp & Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Open in the east
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 14 nautical miles (16 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 108kts (~ 124.3mph) which was observed 41 nautical miles (47 statute miles) to the E (99°) from the flight level center at 2:35:00Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 102kts (~ 117.4mph) which was observed 26 nautical miles (30 statute miles) to the NW (310°) from the flight level center at 5:15:00Z
Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 75° at 7kts (From the ENE at 8mph)

[Aric Dunn]

Outer eye wall headed towards Melbourne, in 2-3 hours as per TWC.

And is it me, or is this not moving in a straight line, but very slightly curving left?

its been on a pretty steady path.. wobbles both left and right.. recently more left.. brevard looks to be getting later.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

just a quick look back in here, looks obvious the storm is still tracking with its tilt as it has been for hours.

[NDG]

Wind woke me up, I see that Matthew has taken more of a true NW heading during the past 4 hours or so, if it stays in this heading it will be very close to Cape Canaveral. Wind field has expanded. Interesting that the NW quadrant has dry out some.

[Nimbus]

I'm wondering how Vero beach is doing because that eye is close! Anybody have an update?

43 mph gusting to 71 at the airport 8 min ago. In a big band before the eyewall.
https://www.wunderground.com/us/fl/vero-beach-municipal/zmw:32960.4.99999

Getting close to 1 minute sustained cat 1 winds.

[Hammy]

It was just pointed out that the two coasts that are getting hardest hit this year, the year Florida's hurricane drought ends (NE coast and Big Bend) just happen to be the two least hit areas in Florida...

[stephen23]

Outer eye appears to be contracting very quickly at the moment.

[EquusStorm]

Assuming it remains >100kt, how much or the center would have to come onshore to end the 11 year major-free streak in the US? Also with a pressure below 940 it would be in the top 20 most intense landfalls I think...