ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[smithtim]

6am

25 miles due east of Cape Canaveral...120 mph heading NNW @ 14 mph

28.4 N 80.1W with 938 mb

[Alyono]

looks like eyewall is missing canaveral by a couple of miles

[northjaxpro]

Cocoa Beach is reporting gusts to over 100 mph. now as their winds have shifted west there .now being just south of the eyewall.

[Sav_hurricane_hunter]

looks like eyewall is missing canaveral by a couple of miles

Does the eye period look to miss landfall period & what effect will this have on track & impacts to Ga?

[brunota2003]

5am public advisory
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/070853.shtml

Quick question it says Matthew is 10 miles from the coast, then says the huricane force winds extend 60 miles....is the measured distance from the center of the eye and if it is that would mean huricane force winds 50 miles inland, is this correct?

To answer your question, yes and no. The winds are measured in each of the 4 quadrants, and a distance is then assigned per quadrant. Usually when they say the hurricane force winds extend out 60 miles (like in the public advisory), it doesn't necessarily mean 60 miles in every direction...but the maximum distance overall is 60 miles.

In Matthew's case:
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 938 MB
EYE DIAMETER 35 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT.......160NE 140SE 80SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 180SE 100SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

So the 74+ mph winds in the NW quadrant could extend out to 50nm at most somewhere within the quadrant. However, you have to keep in mind that frictional forces of land dramatically reduce windspeed beyond the immediate coastline (whereas over water, frictional reduction is nil).

[northjaxpro]

looks like eyewall is missing canaveral by a couple of miles

Does the eye period look to miss landfall period & what effect will this have on track & impacts to Ga?

At this juncture, the western eyewall has already brushed the Cape. The full eye itself is passing by the Cape right now about 10 miles to the east of the Cape. The eyewall is moving more and more almost on a due north header. So no landfall, close call though, but no landfall officially.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/GregPostel/status/784338663182249985

[JKingTampa]

It seems to be starting to push alot more rain west than it has been.

[northjaxpro]

The eyewall is traversing right over the Gulf Stream right now moving just about due north. It appears the eyewall is about roughly 30-40 miles off the coastline. The cyclone indeed is feeding on that very warm water and certainly heavy rainbands are going to pound through the Northeast Florida coast for the duration of the day.

I am becoming increasingly concerned about the storm surge across Jacksonville and Saint Augustine as the eyewall approaches from the south later today.

Also, the potential is there for the storm surge of up to 10 feet currently up here in the Jacksonville area.

[Tenpins300]

I'm not sure, but I'm watching the track and it looks like a more northward trend and possible landfall at GA/SC border before trending OTS. Thoughts.

[dixiebreeze]

WIND AND RAIN NOW INCREASING IN CITRUS COUNTY, FLORIDA WEST CENTRAL COAST. NO OUTAGES AS YET.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

very glad to see the storm staying offshore, with only glancing strong hurricane winds hitting low population area right now. With any luck, will stay offshore and take the turn to avoid land the whole way up past GA, & SC. However, unless that turn happens in time, I see a very bad set up for Jax here. Staying offshore will allow Matt to strengthen as it gets its eyewall act together over those warm waters without much land interaction. On top of that, the expanding windfield will just gather an even bigger swath of sea to push upon land as a surge with its approach. Matt has a deceivingly low pressure, and the surge will be greater than expected for a cat 3 storm as ti appears now to be. A lot of water is heading into the bend over the next day or two. Surge will likely be the biggest story from Matt. We all need to be -removed- an early turn!

[northjaxpro]

Thr eyewall, after it wobbled.west on its approach to Cape Canaveral about 3 hours ago, hadniw moved about on a fue north header.

Looks to beheading toward the GA or SC coastline toward eithet Savannah or Beaufort SC if it continues on the header it is on now. But it is forecast to move NNE by 0Z .this evening, which would move Matthew more off the SC coast by early tomorrow morning.

[invest man]

I don't see how this loops it's with that front digging. IM

[Bhuggs]

Has anyone heard or seen structural damages to homes? I amsupposed to be down there Monday to begin working claims, but I am not sure there will be too many claims from this (wind not flood)

[tolakram]

latest saved loop

[seahawkjd]

Thr eyewall, after it wobbled.west on its approach to Cape Canaveral about 3 hours ago, hadniw moved about on a fue north header.

Looks to beheading toward the GA or SC coastline toward eithet Savannah or Beaufort SC if it continues on the header it is on now. But it is forecast to move NNE by 0Z .this evening, which would move Matthew more off the SC coast by early tomorrow morning.

Do you think it will curve way off or will it get closer to the NC coast than the current forecast path?

[northjaxpro]

very glad to see the storm staying offshore, with only glancing strong hurricane winds hitting low population area right now. With any luck, will stay offshore and take the turn to avoid land the whole way up past GA, & SC. However, unless that turn happens in time, I see a very bad set up for Jax here. Staying offshore will allow Matt to strengthen as it gets its eyewall act together over those warm waters without much land interaction. On top of that, the expanding windfield will just gather an even bigger swath of sea to push upon land as a surge with its approach. Matt has a deceivingly low pressure, and the surge will be greater than expected for a cat 3 storm as ti appears now to be. A lot of water is heading into the bend over the next day or two. Surge will likely be the biggest story from Matt. We all need to be -removed- an early turn!

Yeah the long duration of water buildup along and north of the eyewall is very concerning. The size of Matthew is so large that the storm surge I am fearing is being quite underestimated.

I am fearing that the storm surge could be a very significant problem in the St.Johns River and its tributaries..

[cycloneye]

A lot of lucky folks this morning as eye appears to not touch land.This could have been a lot worse if eye makes it to the coast.

 https://twitter.com/hurricanetrack/status/784351022043041792

[OuterBanker]

Looking like it could be real mess here between Matthew and the cold front. GFS models have 13.5 in rain here and 45 winds. Winds don't concern me but the rain does.