ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[jlauderdal]

I don't see how this loops it's with that front digging. IM

high pressure building in will drive it SW..its going to be weak, my panels are coming down today which means something big is going to happen later in the month for SE Florida

[ronjon]

Radar presentation looks the best it has in hours with a deep convection semicircular band on its northern half.

[StormingB81]

My boss asked me to come into work. Said even though we are under a curfew it is ok if you are coming to and from work. Here's hoping I dont go to jail...lol

[ronjon]

Looks to me that the ERC is nearly complete. Think energy being transferred to outer eyewall now.

[chris_fit]

WIll this count as a FL Landfall, did we break the Major Hurricane Landfalling drought since 2005 (Wilma)?

[tolakram]

The HurricaneTrack cameras in New Smyrna in a good position this morning.

http://hurricanetrack.com/

http://www.ustream.tv/channel/YASbYUZFccF

http://www.ustream.tv/channel/TetcgYJdJCU

[tolakram]

WIll this count as a FL Landfall, did we break the Major Hurricane Landfalling drought since 2005 (Wilma)?

Nope, the streak continues unless we are unfortunate and this wobbles west inland.

[northjaxpro]

Thr eyewall, after it wobbled.west on its approach to Cape Canaveral about 3 hours ago, hadniw moved about on a fue north header.

Looks to beheading toward the GA or SC coastline toward eithet Savannah or Beaufort SC if it continues on the header it is on now. But it is forecast to move NNE by 0Z .this evening, which would move Matthew more off the SC coast by early tomorrow morning.

Do you think it will curve way off or will it get closer to the NC coast than the current forecast path?

Well, it could get a bit closer, but a front is coming in now to likely pull Matthew away from the coast. By about at least 100- 150 mile off the coast. Shear also will really weaken Matthew after this occurs as well over the weekend.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

This may have been posted already... Cape Canaveral Observing Stations...

Search all 68 towers, limiting to towers under 100 feet, and average winds greater than 64 knots:

http://kscwxarchive.ksc.nasa.gov/Weathe ... KaL/Page/1

Search all 68 towers, limiting to towers under 100 feet, and average winds greater than 50 knots (using 64 knots may mean you miss some high gusts):

http://kscwxarchive.ksc.nasa.gov/Weathe ... KaL/Page/1

Search all 68 towers, no height limit, and average winds greater than 64 knots:

http://kscwxarchive.ksc.nasa.gov/Weathe ... KaL/Page/1

It's better to limit that last one. Lots of returned values. The first chart value, 143 knots, had 65 knots of average wind, so that is an error.

Location of towers:
http://kscwxarchive.ksc.nasa.gov/Map

[OverlandHurricane]

My boss asked me to come into work. Said even though we are under a curfew it is ok if you are coming to and from work. Here's hoping I dont go to jail...lol

If the curfew can cause Waffle House to close, your place of employment can most likely wait until it's over.

[northjaxpro]

Looks to me that the ERC is nearly complete. Think energy being transferred to outer eyewall now.

Yes I agree. The outer eyewall is just about fully closed off with strong convection.

[StormingB81]

My boss asked me to come into work. Said even though we are under a curfew it is ok if you are coming to and from work. Here's hoping I dont go to jail...lol

If the curfew can cause Waffle House to close, your place of employment can most likely wait until it's over.

Well when we have people staying there because they did not want to go home and they wanted to ride it out here than well it is a little different than a waffle house.

[Nimbus]

The HurricaneTrack cameras in New Smyrna in a good position this morning.

http://hurricanetrack.com/

http://www.ustream.tv/channel/YASbYUZFccF

http://www.ustream.tv/channel/TetcgYJdJCU

Storm surge didn't look too bad there.
Have they reduced that 11 foot estimate further north?

[northjaxpro]

Saint Augustine Regional Airport had a wind gust to 51 mph within the past hour.

[tolakram]

The HurricaneTrack cameras in New Smyrna in a good position this morning.

http://hurricanetrack.com/

http://www.ustream.tv/channel/YASbYUZFccF

http://www.ustream.tv/channel/TetcgYJdJCU

Storm surge didn't look too bad there.
Have they reduced that 11 foot estimate further north?

The eye has not passed yet, not sure they experienced the worst, but the surge maps all represented worse case I believe.

[Stangfriik]

Ramping up quite good here in new smyrna. See a couple branches broke high up in the trees but that's about it. Supposed to the bad stuff in a little bit though

[northjaxpro]

The HurricaneTrack cameras in New Smyrna in a good position this morning.

http://hurricanetrack.com/

http://www.ustream.tv/channel/YASbYUZFccF

http://www.ustream.tv/channel/TetcgYJdJCU

Storm surge didn't look too bad there.
Have they reduced that 11 foot estimate further north?

No. I have not seen any lesser forecasts this morning. I really hope that levels do not get any higher with the surge that's for sure, especially in the Intracoastal Waterway and of course the Saint Johns River.

[GCANE]

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)

A. Time of Center Fix: 7th day of the month at 11:17:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 28°38'N 80°12'W (28.6333N 80.2W)

D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 76kts (~ 87.5mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 18 nautical miles (21 statute miles) to the S/SSW (191°) of center fix

F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 281° at 89kts (From between the W and WNW at ~ 102.4mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 18 nautical miles (21 statute miles) to the S/SSW (191°) of center fix

H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 944mb (27.88 inHg)

I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 14°C (57°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,046m (9,993ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,039m (9,970ft)

K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 14°C (57°F)

L. Eye Character: Open in the southwest, SW
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles)

[tolakram]

Bastardi had this coming ashore near West Palm, he just changed to keep it offshore so watch out Daytona and points north.

[tolakram]

Not quite to New Smyrna yet.



Cam
http://www.ustream.tv/channel/YASbYUZFccF