ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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northjaxpro
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#10101 Postby northjaxpro » Fri Oct 07, 2016 9:03 am

Just got a wind gust to 53 mph here at my .home just in the past couple of minutes. Getting a very heavy rain squall currently.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#10102 Postby crm6360 » Fri Oct 07, 2016 9:05 am

northjaxpro wrote:
windnrain wrote:Matthew has gotten closer to shore since last night.

Inside of the eye is only 5 miles offshore.

Image


It has indeed come closer. I would say that it is within as close as only being within as close within 10 miles off shore and the the case can be made the western eyewall is at New Smyrna Beach right now.

Close only matters in horseshoes and hand grenades.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#10103 Postby dukeblue219 » Fri Oct 07, 2016 9:05 am

Pressure is slowly, slowly rising, but the winds are holding very steady. Recon still finding 100 knots on the SFMR and 105-110knots aloft (119kt gust on last dropsonde). Radar presentation still looks like a legit hurricane. Hope nobody in the NE part of Florida, or GA and SC, is relaxing on this at all.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#10104 Postby Rail Dawg » Fri Oct 07, 2016 9:07 am

Left Melbourne.

Heading to Daytona Beach on Hwy 1.

Coming up on New Smyrna Beach.

Lots of Cat 3 damage.

Many low wires.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#10105 Postby tallywx » Fri Oct 07, 2016 9:08 am

dukeblue219 wrote:Pressure is slowly, slowly rising, but the winds are holding very steady. Recon still finding 100 knots on the SFMR and 105-110knots aloft (119kt gust on last dropsonde). Radar presentation still looks like a legit hurricane. Hope nobody in the NE part of Florida, or GA and SC, is relaxing on this at all.


I wouldn't be surprised if the stretch from Savannah to Charleston experiences stronger winds from this than the Florida coast given the angle of attack.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#10106 Postby Stangfriik » Fri Oct 07, 2016 9:09 am

Dang it kinda looks like the eye is heading towards us in new smyrna
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#10107 Postby tigerz3030 » Fri Oct 07, 2016 9:11 am

Strongest winds yet here in St Aug and now first signs of lightning and thunder. Winds easily the 40-50. Gusts around 60
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#10108 Postby CronkPSU » Fri Oct 07, 2016 9:11 am

definite western wobble towards Daytona...they may still get hit
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#10109 Postby dukeblue219 » Fri Oct 07, 2016 9:12 am

dukeblue219 wrote:Pressure is slowly, slowly rising, but the winds are holding very steady. Recon still finding 100 knots on the SFMR and 105-110knots aloft (119kt gust on last dropsonde). Radar presentation still looks like a legit hurricane. Hope nobody in the NE part of Florida, or GA and SC, is relaxing on this at all.


New dropsonde from NE quadrant

Level Wind Direction Wind Speed
962mb (Surface) Unavailable
961mb 85° (from the E) 91 knots (105 mph)
957mb 85° (from the E) 105 knots (121 mph)
946mb 90° (from the E) 113 knots (130 mph)
938mb 95° (from the E) 113 knots (130 mph)
932mb 95° (from the E) 122 knots (140 mph)
914mb 95° (from the E) 98 knots (113 mph)
905mb 100° (from the E) 100 knots (115 mph)
894mb 110° (from the ESE) 129 knots (148 mph)
892mb 110° (from the ESE) 128 knots (147 mph)
888mb 110° (from the ESE) 117 knots (135 mph)
881mb 115° (from the ESE) 111 knots (128 mph)
870mb 120° (from the ESE) 121 knots (139 mph)
850mb 125° (from the SE) 112 knots (129 mph)
833mb 130° (from the SE) 116 knots (133 mph)
821mb 135° (from the SE) 97 knots (112 mph)
787mb 130° (from the SE) 85 knots (98 mph)
697mb 135° (from the SE) 95 knots (109 mph)
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#10110 Postby ronjon » Fri Oct 07, 2016 9:13 am

CronkPSU wrote:definite western wobble towards Daytona...they may still get hit


Airport stopped reporting last hour.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#10111 Postby Madpoodle » Fri Oct 07, 2016 9:14 am

Rail Dawg wrote:Left Melbourne.

Heading to Daytona Beach on Hwy 1.

Coming up on New Smyrna Beach.

Lots of Cat 3 damage.

Many low wires.


Be careful man...
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#10112 Postby dukeblue219 » Fri Oct 07, 2016 9:14 am

tallywx wrote:
dukeblue219 wrote:Pressure is slowly, slowly rising, but the winds are holding very steady. Recon still finding 100 knots on the SFMR and 105-110knots aloft (119kt gust on last dropsonde). Radar presentation still looks like a legit hurricane. Hope nobody in the NE part of Florida, or GA and SC, is relaxing on this at all.


I wouldn't be surprised if the stretch from Savannah to Charleston experiences stronger winds from this than the Florida coast given the angle of attack.


The storm will possibly be weaker by that point so I'd be more inclined to say they'll be similar winds to what Florida is seeing, but your point is very valid. Charleston may well see a landfalling Cat1 hurricane (and a well organized one at that) pushing water directly into Charleston Harbor from the NE quadrant.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#10113 Postby Rail Dawg » Fri Oct 07, 2016 9:20 am

Just south of New Smyrna.

Lots of trees blocking Hwy 1 but passable.

Have 28" Husqvarna chain saw.

Incredible out here.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#10114 Postby Steve » Fri Oct 07, 2016 9:21 am

Way, way better outcome (so far) that what it looked like yesterday evening. It's not over, and the eyewall is nudging really close to Volusia County, but it's not an intensifying Cat 4 or whatever bearing down on SE FL. Doesn't mean the threat to property is over, and y'all know I've been harping on Coastal South Carolina for a while even though I thought this would come in or brush by Hobe Sound (which I think it missed by a stone's throw). Stay vigilant on up the coast until the threat passes, but looks like we're probably not getting a catastrophe!
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#10115 Postby LCfromFL » Fri Oct 07, 2016 9:21 am

terrapintransit wrote:There are reports and warnings of a potential 11 ft storm surge into Jacksonville. Has anyone else heard this yet?


Yes - that is correct. At one point last night we were looking at 12+ feet all the way to Callahan in Nassau County!
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#10116 Postby tolakram » Fri Oct 07, 2016 9:21 am

Eyewall sooo close to the coast.

Image
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#10117 Postby Vdogg » Fri Oct 07, 2016 9:22 am

Looking at the forecast points, should turn due north then NNE in the next few hours.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#10118 Postby northjaxpro » Fri Oct 07, 2016 9:23 am

crm6360 wrote:
northjaxpro wrote:
windnrain wrote:Matthew has gotten closer to shore since last night.

Inside of the eye is only 5 miles offshore.

Image


It has indeed come closer. I would say that it is within as close as only being within as close within 10 miles off shore and the the case can be made the western eyewall is at New Smyrna Beach right now.

Close only matters in horseshoes and hand grenades.


Well, thank you for your blunt perspective of the situation. However, "close" it is getting is still producing hurricane winds gusts, in some cases of Cat 2 strength in gusts. So, yeah "close. In this case matters a great deal. Ot may not be an official landfall, but impacts are verysignificant at and near the coast.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#10119 Postby HurrMark » Fri Oct 07, 2016 9:23 am

From this point forward, the coast is oriented more north-south, so any west "wobbles" could very well bring this inland.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#10120 Postby galaxy401 » Fri Oct 07, 2016 9:25 am

Death toll is over 500 in Haiti now.
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Got my eyes on moving right into Hurricane Alley: Florida.


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