ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[La Sirena]

My sister in Ponte Vedra Beach is safe, though she has no clue what has happened to her home. Next up, my other sister: Also very safe, and hopefully having too much fun to worry about her home on Skidaway Island in Savannah. I still cannot speculate about 5-10 days down the road. Thank you to all Storm2k personnel for allowing me access to such real time information.

Skidaway will see significant surge. Did she stay or evacuate?

[abajan]

Lol SE Florida back in the cone. That's funny. Round 2?

I wonder if a weakened Matthew is heading for the Gulf of Mexico, only to re-intensify and hit who knows where.

[ncweatherwizard]

For those in Hampton Roads and North Carolina.

https://www.facebook.com/WxSynopsis/pos ... 3757288196

****SIGNIFICANT NORTH AND WEST SHIFT IN MATTHEW'S TRACK EXPECTED. EURO/CMC/GFS/NAM ALONG WITH OTHER MODELS, NOW SHOWING THIS SHIFT****

Matthew is a strong Category 2 hurricane aiming for GA and SC tonight. Saturday into early Sunday morning, Matthew will be tracking along the SC and NC coast, now tracking farther west along the coast and farther north, into the Outer Banks. What this shift does is increases the threat inland for rain/wind. Matthew's outter bands will now be placed over VA and NC, interacting with an approaching cold front. The combination of the cold front and Matthew's bands will increase the rain threat, now a widespread 3-6in+ threat for Central VA and NC, with isolated pockets of higher totals. Coastal areas and tidewater regions of VA and NC will receive 12in+. Widespread wind threat inland, gust in the 35-40mph range but along and east of I-95 40-60mph winds, along the coast 60-70mph+ winds. Wind and rain threat will start late friday night, peak Saturday and last into Sunday morning. NWS offices now issuing advisories/watches/warnings for this threat across the region. Please monitor forecast from your local NWS office and heed the warnings. I will have updates later so please check back in

I'm not understanding the statement here. Are you saying an additional shift after the 5 pm published track? Coming ashore before turning eastward?

I'm not saying it, the met is saying it. Perhaps at the 11pm update but more than likely the 5am. NHC usually likes to wait for the euro to run again to verify trend. 18z gfs doesn't run in time to affect 5pm update. Also allows for a chance to check ensemble runs.

No. The track, even in that map, is consistent with what the forecast has been for a while. Take a look at the location of the MSLP low on that map. That said, it looks like more rain for an already pretty wet area, which we've been saying for several days now. Much of the moisture will be picked up by the incoming trough, but not the center itself.

[psyclone]

That sign language guy for SC Gov Haley needs a tv show. An SNL gig, comedy central, anything. I am just delighted by his expressions...Count me as a huge fan.

[Uhoh13]

Lol SE Florida back in the cone. That's funny. Round 2?

I wonder if a weakened Matthew is heading for the Gulf of Mexico, only to re-intensify and hit who knows where.

Bite your tongue.

[Blown Away]

Was it an amazing once in a lifetime track or was their some factor that keeps Matt from landfall? Just amazed how close Matt has hugged the coast from Palm Beach to OBX...

[CrazyC83]

Last vortex message suggests the pressure has ticked down and is now 946mb.

[weatherSnoop]

My sister in Ponte Vedra Beach is safe, though she has no clue what has happened to her home. Next up, my other sister: Also very safe, and hopefully having too much fun to worry about her home on Skidaway Island in Savannah. I still cannot speculate about 5-10 days down the road. Thank you to all Storm2k personnel for allowing me access to such real time information.

Skidaway will see significant surge. Did she stay or evacuate?

She did not evacuate, she is on an anniversary vacation! Her words, not mine

[ncweatherwizard]

Was it an amazing once in a lifetime track or was their some factor that keeps Matt from landfall? Just amazed how close Matt has hugged the coast from Palm Beach to OBX...

Just the way the steering flow has worked/will work out. In that sense, every storm track is a once in a lifetime track. This one just coincidentally happened to have land nearby.

[Sanibel]

Lots of rain, probably around 30 mph gusts in Mt. Pleasant, SC right now for me.

If you could keep me appraised of the surge situation by Rifle Range Road and Isle Of Palms Road I'd appreciate it.

[birddogsc]

Unfortunately, there are reports of people remaining on many of the SC barrier islands including several thousand on Hilton Head and some more on Daufuskie, Folly, Edisto...

[Sanibel]

CONUS air starting to undercut south quadrant...

[EquusStorm]

I have relatives on John's Island, and others in Charleston. I don't think they left, having apparently survived Hugo in their locations, but I really don't think that's a good enough reason to stay. They are stubborn though so there's no convincing them to leave...

[La Sirena]

Unfortunately, there are reports of people remaining on many of the SC barrier islands including several thousand on Hilton Head and some more on Daufuskie, Folly, Edisto...

There were at least 100 who remained on Daufuskie.

[hurricaneCW]

Was it an amazing once in a lifetime track or was their some factor that keeps Matt from landfall? Just amazed how close Matt has hugged the coast from Palm Beach to OBX...

Unfortunately he wasn't far enough east to avoid causing major damage to many places but yeah that's quite an interesting track. It completely carved the SE coast just 25-30 miles offshore. It's like a further west version of Floyd.

[gatorcane]

Almost looks like it has turned NE, maybe just a wobble?

[Alyono]

eyewall should remain off of SC and Georgia

[Raebie]

eyewall should remain off of SC and Georgia

What about NC? At least as of now...

[underthwx]

In terms of height of a storm surge, does a cyclone moving parallel to a coastline, result in a higher storm surge?, versus a cyclone moving directly at a coastline.

[terstorm1012]

i have a question: if the rains in NC and VA are going to be frontal influenced, why won't the front shunt Matthew ENE and out to sea? How will the center end up going south? The mechanics of that part I'm a little confused on.