ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
Steve
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9621
Joined: Sat Apr 05, 2003 11:41 pm
Location: Not a state-caster

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#10541 Postby Steve » Fri Oct 07, 2016 9:45 pm

Pughetime12 wrote:
Alyono wrote:One thing about Charleston

IF this makes a direct hit, the winds may be higher than they were in Hugo. Hugo brought category 1 winds to Charleston. The cat 4 winds were farther north


If this continues North and doesn't turn east until later, would that ultimately be better for Charleston?


I don't have the 10,000,000 variables comparison, but I'd say no. You'd get the meat of that N Eyewall that's mostly been offshore with the system and probably more surge with the water piling up. But it's going to turn at some point, and if it comes in a little east of there and landfalls, that's worse with backing up rivers, sounds and bays. You just saw that in N FL and some of SE GA today. Be careful.
1 likes   

User avatar
Fishing
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 67
Age: 65
Joined: Thu Sep 03, 2015 11:53 am
Location: Mount Pleasant, SC

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#10542 Postby Fishing » Fri Oct 07, 2016 9:46 pm

Pughetime12 wrote:Heavy rainfall, probably 50 mph consistently it feels like right now in Mt. Pleasant, SC. Power keeps flickering. Radar seems like it's still going North, when is it supposed to make the turn east?

I'm so glad your posting. I'm from Mount Pleasant and my husband and I came to Charlotte however my adult children and pets are staying at our house in Park West. They had power about an hour ago but haven't heard anything else since . We stayed for Hugo. I hope to hell the noise doesn't get that loud. So hard to say what this storm is going to do . I think Matthew broke the rule book.
0 likes   

emeraldislenc
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 559
Joined: Fri Aug 24, 2012 4:49 pm
Location: Emerald Isle NC

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#10543 Postby emeraldislenc » Fri Oct 07, 2016 9:49 pm

i agree with what the person said from NC everyone gave the all clear sign yesterday and now the storm looks like it might get closer than they anticipated.
2 likes   

Alyono
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 6961
Joined: Fri Apr 26, 2013 3:52 pm
Location: Texas Coast

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#10544 Postby Alyono » Fri Oct 07, 2016 9:50 pm

Pughetime12 wrote:
Alyono wrote:One thing about Charleston

IF this makes a direct hit, the winds may be higher than they were in Hugo. Hugo brought category 1 winds to Charleston. The cat 4 winds were farther north


If this continues North and doesn't turn east until later, would that ultimately be better for Charleston?


far worse as you would be in the right, front quadrant
1 likes   

Soonercane

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#10545 Postby Soonercane » Fri Oct 07, 2016 9:53 pm

Is it possible this could do more damage in SC than Florida?
1 likes   

NYR__1994
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 26
Joined: Thu Sep 29, 2016 1:08 pm
Location: Savannah, GA

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#10546 Postby NYR__1994 » Fri Oct 07, 2016 9:54 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:
NYR__1994 wrote:Watching the RADAR trends over the past couple frames looks like the eye is taking a wobble to the left/west. How long this last is going to be critical as to where/if the strongest winds come ashore and could be the difference between landfall and no landfall....


I can't see it making landfall before about Beaufort SC, but it could push the eyewall over some of the islands such as Tybee.


I agree, but it looks like it is making a beeline for Hilton Head right now.
0 likes   

Pughetime12
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 32
Joined: Thu Oct 06, 2016 1:07 pm

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#10547 Postby Pughetime12 » Fri Oct 07, 2016 9:59 pm

Fishing wrote:
Pughetime12 wrote:Heavy rainfall, probably 50 mph consistently it feels like right now in Mt. Pleasant, SC. Power keeps flickering. Radar seems like it's still going North, when is it supposed to make the turn east?

I'm so glad your posting. I'm from Mount Pleasant and my husband and I came to Charlotte however my adult children and pets are staying at our house in Park West. They had power about an hour ago but haven't heard anything else since . We stayed for Hugo. I hope to hell the noise doesn't get that loud. So hard to say what this storm is going to do . I think Matthew broke the rule book.


We are in Park West too, it looks like everyone that we know in Park West still has power.
1 likes   

User avatar
bg1
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 409
Joined: Fri May 13, 2011 11:14 am
Location: near Santee, SC

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#10548 Postby bg1 » Fri Oct 07, 2016 10:09 pm

Winds have picked up to about... 25 mph? Heavy rain as well in my area.
0 likes   

Fountainguy97
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 39
Joined: Fri Sep 30, 2016 10:35 am
Location: Raleigh, NC

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#10549 Postby Fountainguy97 » Fri Oct 07, 2016 10:12 pm

Latest update (6PM) from the MHX office.... Page 5 guys...that's scary


http://www.weather.gov/media/mhx/LatestBriefing.pdf
0 likes   

User avatar
NC George
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 633
Age: 55
Joined: Sun Sep 14, 2003 11:44 am
Location: Washington, NC, USA

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#10550 Postby NC George » Fri Oct 07, 2016 10:14 pm

emeraldislenc wrote:i agree with what the person said from NC everyone gave the all clear sign yesterday and now the storm looks like it might get closer than they anticipated.


My mother asked for my opinion about the probably effects of this storm in our area a couple of days ago, and I replied that I though this would be very similar to Floyd, hopefully with less rain, and it would be very hard to predict the exact point it made the turn and thus who would get the brunt. Seems my prediction about it being to Floyd was more spot on than I thought, as they are now forecasting flooding rains throughout eastern NC tomorrow.

I continued my hurricane preparations yesterday and today. Local stores and gas stations were fully stocked earlier today, and Lowe's had plenty of everything yesterday. I'll update conditions here as they decline tomorrow. I have a barometer and a handheld anemometer this year. I need to find an 'official Matthew rain bucket'!

Current pressure is 1014, 0 wind, not raining; air is very still. Earlier today it was breezy and drizzling with an occasional shower.
1 likes   
Bertha '96, Fran '96, Bonnie '98, Dennis '99, Floyd '99 :eek: , Isabel '03, Irene '11, Matthew '16, Isaias '20, PTC16????

Avatar is heading into Florence 2018, moving friend's boat, only land between us and Hurricane Florence is Ocracoke Island!

dukeblue219
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 535
Joined: Fri Sep 30, 2016 3:52 pm

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#10551 Postby dukeblue219 » Fri Oct 07, 2016 10:16 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:
Alyono wrote:One thing about Charleston

IF this makes a direct hit, the winds may be higher than they were in Hugo. Hugo brought category 1 winds to Charleston. The cat 4 winds were farther north


Also the surge will almost certainly be worse than with Hugo due to the angle of approach. Those Cat 1 winds were in an offshore flow until the end of the storm. If Hugo hit near Kiawah, we'd be talking 145 mph sustained winds directly over Charleston.


For those wanting numbers, track the surge on the Charleston peninsula itself here: https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/water ... =6&action=

You can change the dates back to 9/22/89 to see Hugo, too. (also will have to switch to 1 hr data instead of 6 minutes)
Last edited by dukeblue219 on Fri Oct 07, 2016 10:20 pm, edited 2 times in total.
1 likes   

User avatar
abajan
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4230
Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 5:10 am
Location: Barbados

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#10552 Postby abajan » Fri Oct 07, 2016 10:18 pm

JtSmarts wrote:
Alyono wrote:One thing about Charleston

IF this makes a direct hit, the winds may be higher than they were in Hugo. Hugo brought category 1 winds to Charleston. The cat 4 winds were farther north


So true, there are many people who believe they went through a Cat 4 hurricane who didn't.

Just like how many Jamaicans believe they experienced Gilbert as a Cat 5 when in fact it was just a Cat 3 at the time. (Of course, a Cat 3 is still a very powerful storm.)
1 likes   

psyclone
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4762
Joined: Wed Aug 24, 2005 9:04 pm
Location: palm harbor fl

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#10553 Postby psyclone » Fri Oct 07, 2016 10:18 pm

Matthew is taking on that classic "half-a-cane" look we often see when a storm has been loitering too close to a big landmass for too long. The QPF estimates for the Carolinas are hideous. Inland flooding is likely the biggest concern from the grand strand north with surge and heavy rain the biggies down south. Do we have any reliable info about surge flooding right now in GA and the SC lowcountry? I wonder about places like Tybee and Hilton Head...very surge prone region.
1 likes   

User avatar
stormhunter7
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 762
Joined: Mon May 26, 2008 3:13 pm
Location: Panama City Beach, Florida
Contact:

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#10554 Postby stormhunter7 » Fri Oct 07, 2016 10:29 pm

I swear I have seen two or three vortices in the nw part of the eye on radar. Usually that fires up hot towers in the eyewall... and from what I am seeing on IR... I belive will see the ne turn next hour or two. IMO
0 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov

ncweatherwizard
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 1243
Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 9:45 am
Location: Ft. Collins, CO

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#10555 Postby ncweatherwizard » Fri Oct 07, 2016 10:35 pm

Matthew really getting hammered by vertical shear now. At the same time, moisture is getting advected well north of the cyclone now, which will contribute a bunch to the storm total rainfall amounts in NC. Been raining in SC awhile now.
2 likes   

Digital-TC-Chaser

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#10556 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Fri Oct 07, 2016 10:49 pm

Image
Image
0 likes   

User avatar
FLpanhandle91
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1033
Age: 34
Joined: Mon Sep 13, 2010 3:50 pm
Location: Fort Walton Beach, FL

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#10557 Postby FLpanhandle91 » Fri Oct 07, 2016 10:58 pm

I fear that Matthew's true damage won't be felt until another storm approaches the Florida coast. My social media is full of people mocking the storm and its effects on Florida. No way these people leave for a storm next time.
4 likes   

Sanibel
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10375
Joined: Mon Aug 30, 2004 11:06 pm
Location: Offshore SW Florida

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#10558 Postby Sanibel » Fri Oct 07, 2016 11:05 pm

Slow down before NE turn?
0 likes   

User avatar
CFLHurricane
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 346
Joined: Thu Mar 27, 2014 5:56 pm
Location: Floriduh

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#10559 Postby CFLHurricane » Fri Oct 07, 2016 11:07 pm

FLpanhandle91 wrote:I fear that Matthew's true damage won't be felt until another storm approaches the Florida coast. My social media is full of people mocking the storm and its effects on Florida. No way these people leave for a storm next time.


After staying at my in-laws, sometimes I think I'd rather take the hurricane :lol:
1 likes   
I'm not a meteorologist, but I did stay at a motel 8.

CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 34002
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#10560 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Oct 07, 2016 11:09 pm

It seems to be on pace for landfall near St. Helena Island.
0 likes   


Return to “2016”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest