2016 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to Day 16)

[WeatherEmperor]

Not seeing anything in the long range models. We may have to wait for something in the WC as that becomes the area to watch as we go deeper into October


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[tolakram]

Extreme fantasy range, end of GFS run, but since I'm posting graphics might as well mention it.

[1900hurricane]

That would make some sense climatologically speaking.

[WeatherEmperor]

I saw this on the 18z Gfs today. Purr fantasy but I have seen this for a few runs now so something to watch. Development starts around 300hrs.






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[WeatherHoon]

I think we're all going to feel extreme exhaustion and malaise once Matthew is out of the picture. Another storm is the last thing we want, so hopefully this doesn't come to fruition.

[gatorcane]

The GFS has been showing something trying to spin up in the Western Caribbean in the long-range and heading north or NE:

[gatorcane]

06Z GFS with lowering pressures across the SW Caribbean in 8-10 days

[jlauderdal]

06Z GFS with lowering pressures across the SW Caribbean in 8-10 days

couple more shots for florida...matthew energy if it gets into the gulf and the sw carib low...my shutters all down so expect a system before nov 1

[DESTRUCTION5]

06Z GFS with lowering pressures across the SW Caribbean in 8-10 days

Saw that...been hinting ..06z starts at 204 and sustains low for 1st time all the way into straights before exiting. La Nina in full swing. One more big one not out of the question in the West Carib. Fingers crossed this is just a phantom .

[WeatherEmperor]

12z GFS starts development of a tropical cyclone in the W Caribbean around 186hrs and brings it to FL/Cuba in fantasy land. Who knows if this will really happen but it is October and this is a climatologically favored area for development this time of year








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[WeatherEmperor]

...and it hits South Florida in super long fantasy range...




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[DESTRUCTION5]

...and it hits South Florida in super long fantasy range...

http://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/2016100 ... 189d17.jpg


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Back to back runs. This one stronger.

[USTropics]

CMC show development but seems to bury this into Central America:



Hate to say it but seems we'll have to watch the persistent convection associated with the ITCZ/Monsoon Trof off the coast of Central America being pulled north and/or the wave in the Caribbean diving SW.

Tropical wave in the Caribbean extends along 66W/67W from over
Puerto Rico to the coast of Venezuela moving west near 15 kt
over the past 24 hours. Wave coincides with a 700 mb trough and
remains embedded within a broad area of moisture. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is from 15N-17N between
66W-68W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough axis extends from 09N78W to 14N97W to
11N110W to low pressure near 11.5N117W to 10N140W. Scattered
moderate convection is within 150 nm southwest of the axis
between 79W and 102W, from 09N to 13N between 104W and 124W, and
also from 09N to 11N between 127W and 132W.

[gatorcane]

The catalyst of development seems to happen in the short-to-medium range though development is a very gradual process on this run. Watch the 850mb vorticity loop starting at 78 hours near Panama - this may not be a phantom:

[Pughetime12]

I saw this on the 18z Gfs today. Purr fantasy but I have seen this for a few runs now so something to watch. Development starts around 300hrs.

http://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/2016100 ... 256bb3.jpg

http://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/2016100 ... c6e0a1.jpg


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Wife and I have a cruise to Cozumel in 12 days, I really hope there's nothing down in the Gulf.

[USTropics]

GFS ensembles starting to hint at this area as well, a ways out but looks to be the next area to watch:

[USTropics]

Picture of wave off in the Eastern Caribbean and the active ITCZ just south of the Caribbean currently:

[gatorcane]

12Z ECMWF has it with a low forming in the SW Caribbean and lifting slowly north similarly to what the GFS shows:

[wxman57]

I've scheduled a comp day for Oct 21st, so that GFS forecast may come true. Every time I try to schedule a day off a storm forms. Had vacation days scheduled 2 weeks before Hermine and 5 months (long vacation) before Matthew. Here I am at work for the 2nd day of my vacation today. Leave for Orlando Monday.

The west Caribbean may be the place to watch in 10-15 days. It's that time of the year.

[jlauderdal]

Picture of wave off in the Eastern Caribbean and the active ITCZ just south of the Caribbean currently:

long range ensembles...here we go