Seasonal Indicators (Beyond Day 16): Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal

[FireRat]

true, forgot about Arthur

Kind of hard to compare to 1800s, there was also apparently a major C3-C4 hit on South FL in August 1888.

[psyclone]

I think of 8-20 to 9-20 as the absolute peak of cane season and while the latter third of August put forth a respectable showing September has been a bust with garbage storms. We've built an ACE deficit from which we are unlikely to recover.

Fail. Correction: epic fail. Somewhere in the Matthew thread I also stated I had 0 concerns about Matthew for Florida and while I was really thinking about my part of the state that's not what I wrote. I confess after 103 days of 90+ heat I'm a dedicated wish-caster...and that wish is for a cold front.

[tolakram]

Is southern California out of a drought yet? That's what ninel said would enhance the Atlantic and get rid of the persistent trof (sic).

[SootyTern]

Where did ninel go, anyways? I thought he lived for a dramatic US threat.

[gatorcane]

Looks like much of October could feature rising air across the Western Caribbean. I have a feeling we could see some development there this month, maybe third or fourth week of October.

[centuryv58]

Where did ninel go, anyways? I thought he lived for a dramatic US threat.

Looking for that permanent east coast trough I suppose.

[Steve]

Where did ninel go, anyways? I thought he lived for a dramatic US threat.

Looking for that permanent east coast trough I suppose.

To be fair, there was a semi-permanent coastal trough for a few years. And we didn't get many landfalls after 08. Isaac 10 hit, and there were otherwise random depressions, tropical storms and waves until Hermine. Matthew so far has only been a swipe for the USA. But she/he was too "sure"and leans too heavily on stuff. I think having an open mind is the best way to deal with the tropics. We really don't know all that much at
This point even if we are light years ahead of just a decade or two ago. Patterns are similar, but nothing is ever the same. Clues are always there, but there is never a guarantee.

[Hammy]

5 ACE and either one hurricane or major hurricane away from being statistically above normal this year--any guesses on how likely (or unlikely) it is that we don't get another hurricane this year?

[hurricanehunter69]

Wow, rising air in the NW Caribbean....That area and it's potent TCHP is still untapped. And we technically still have the mini peak of October left. As for Ninel.....You all know you're gonna miss him.....

[hurricanehunter69]

5 ACE and either one hurricane or major hurricane away from being statistically above normal this year--any guesses on how likely (or unlikely) it is that we don't get another hurricane this year?

I think the chances are very likely Hammy. I think we're gonna crush the ACE estimates and end way above normal( thanx to Matthew). I'm very interested in post season analysis as well. I think we'll end up with at least one unnamed Tropical Storm and possibly Nicole being a major for about six hours.....?

[weathaguyry]

5 ACE and either one hurricane or major hurricane away from being statistically above normal this year--any guesses on how likely (or unlikely) it is that we don't get another hurricane this year?

I think the chances are very likely Hammy. I think we're gonna crush the ACE estimates and end way above normal( thanx to Matthew). I'm very interested in post season analysis as well. I think we'll end up with at least one unnamed Tropical Storm and possibly Nicole being a major for about six hours.....?

Agreed, I always had a gut feeling about a busy October, maybe Scary Shary? Terrible Tobias? Who knows!

[Steve]

Yeah, I think the basin can support another hurricane and possibly 2, and we might have a tropical storm as well. I think the Caribbean could support one, the open Atlantic and probably the Gulf. I think 1 NS additional is a given, 2 NS probably over 50% and 3 NS 15-20%. This isn't based on anything historical just more what I see available and where we are in early October. I don't know if there is a flurry because M/N was the burst I thought would happen and since they were both fairly long lived considering and still going. 2016 was underrated for a while, but it will go down as having been pretty memorable even if we don't get anything else.

[NDG]

Where did ninel go, anyways? I thought he lived for a dramatic US threat.

He has been away ever since he finally realized this year's pattern was not the "infinite east coast trough pattern" he was preaching to be without scientific proof, actually this year's pattern is very similar to last year's pattern, we just got lucky last year that we had the Super El Nino with record breaking windshear over the Caribbean.

[NDG]

Regarding YTD ACE we are already above average for an entire year. Matthew is approaching 50 ACE.

[Hammy]

Where did ninel go, anyways? I thought he lived for a dramatic US threat.

He has been away ever since he finally realized this year's pattern was not the "infinite east coast trough pattern" he was preaching to be without scientific proof, actually this year's pattern is very similar to last year's pattern, we just got lucky last year that we had the Super El Nino with record breaking windshear over the Caribbean.

This happens every time it gets busy, for someone who seems to want to watch hurricanes he's never around except when it's quiet to say nothing will form/hit.

As an aside, since Sandy was not technically tropical at landfall, this year is the first time since 2008 that the US has had two hurricane landfalls.

[Steve]

Ninel also said he/she was dropping back for a while if I remember reading that.

[psyclone]

I hope Ninel comes back. I enjoyed his posts. I like a variety of perspectives.

[tolakram]

Ninel won't be coming back. Perspectives are nice but false information and trolling is not.

[centuryv58]

I hope Ninel comes back. I enjoyed his posts. I like a variety of perspectives.

Storm2K has all the opinions they can handle. During FL Matt I saw 400 opinions on what direction he was headed when east or west were the two options at that time!

[Ntxw]

From a meteorological and technical perspective it was a pretty good season to follow the Atlantic. From a humanitarian perspective 2016 was devastating and was unfortunate, I would have hoped for a dud season. The year after a Nino statistic (looking at you Andrew92!) was on the money once again. Very possible it could muster another threat before all said and done, place to look late season would be WCarib.

And it's not really a one storm season either that carried most of the weight, ACE wise there was two in Gaston and Matthew.