2016 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to Day 16)

[jlauderdal]

whats the aussie model say?

[gatorcane]

12Z ECMWF ensembles are on to it, SW Carib lifting slowly north

[SFLcane]

Hmmm with all that octaine Iam watching..climo favored area to.

[WeatherEmperor]

18z GFS continues defelopment. Starts around 192hrs.






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[WeatherEmperor]

384hrs pure pure fantasy land. It looks increasingly likely that something will form in the W Caribbean. Wild swings are likely from run to run so please take these with a grain of salt. We learned from Matthew and others before.

One thing to look out for in future runs. I am praying that future runs don't show a NE track towards Cuba/Haiti. That would be one cruel act of nature




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[jason1912]

12z GFS had it at OBX, now at the Yucatan lol

[WeatherEmperor]

12z GFS had it at OBX, now at the Yucatan lol

Yes in almost 16 days the 12z was near OBX and at 18z its near the Yucatan. Thats why we call it fantasy land...being 16 days in the future.


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[gatorcane]

Support from 18Z GFS ensembles

[Steve]

It's got that Indian Summer high (once moderated) to the north.
That's the place to look be it next week or week after. I would think as long as there is warm water off the MId Atlantic and NE US, this type of pattern would be likely to repeat. Highs will be naturally drawn to that area. At the same time, the later in the fall we get, the more likely the overall continental pattern will become progressive. Also, most updated SSTA map I can get was 00z 10/8 which hasn't shown the effects of Matthew yet.

[blp]

Last nights run of the NASA Goes Model was picking up on this area.

[Hurricaneman]

Looks like the T-wave at 50W and the monsoon trough come together to form a storm so who knows but if something forms in the western Caribbean it could be trouble

[Hurricaneman]

The 0zGFS seems to shear the system out unlike the previous 2 runs because the main development is in the EPAC while the 12zEuro shows the western Caribbean, lets see what the 0zEuro shows in a little bit

[SouthFLTropics]

00z GFS goes with EPac development this time instead of Western Caribbean. Will be interesting to see how this plays out in the days to come.

[USTropics]

ECMWF continues to show something starting in roughly 200 hours (below is the end of the run):

[SouthFloridian92]

Let''s see if these runs keep it roughly 10 days away run after run or if it gets sooner.

[Hurricaneman]

If the Euro continues to develop something in the Western Caribbean instead of the EPAC then this has my attention especially if it brings the timeframe in

[WeatherHoon]

GFS 12Z still shows a low forming and hanging around in the same vicinity starting next week. However, it's way less pronounced than previous runs.

[WeatherEmperor]

12z Euro continues to show development in the SW Caribbean. Here is 240hrs.




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[WeatherEmperor]

12z NAVGEM has a very weak low in the SE Caribbean at 180 hrs.




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[blp]

Looks like it will be a moonsoon trough that will take its time to develop. Big differences between GFS amd Euro are that the GFS wants to develop the Epac side versus the Euro Carribean side. Looks like the Mjo will be favorable so it bears watching.