Texas Fall-2016
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Re: Texas Fall-2016
The models are at times hinting at Epac storms once the Atlantic quiets down. October rains are well tied to systems in the east Pacific, if we want meaningful soaking I think that aspect has to materialize first. Patricia, Simon, Manuel, etc the past couple of years have proven that. There is a very strong correlation.
Meanwhile chilly and rainy in DFW this morning. Another beautiful weekend on tap to attend the state fair.
Meanwhile chilly and rainy in DFW this morning. Another beautiful weekend on tap to attend the state fair.
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Re: Texas Fall-2016
Its cold front day!
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: Texas Fall-2016
63F with a brisk north wind . Feels a little chilly 

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Re: Texas Fall-2016
From this mornings AFD from FWD:
A warm-up will ensue mid to late next weak as weak return flow
develops at the surface and ridging persists aloft. The result is
dry conditions and temperatures 5 to 10 degrees above normal for
the extended portion of the forecast.
I know wxman57 is happy, somewhere.
Thankful for the .87 of rain we got today, wish there had been more. I was hoping we might be seeing an end to the decade of drought, but that is not the case.
A warm-up will ensue mid to late next weak as weak return flow
develops at the surface and ridging persists aloft. The result is
dry conditions and temperatures 5 to 10 degrees above normal for
the extended portion of the forecast.
I know wxman57 is happy, somewhere.
Thankful for the .87 of rain we got today, wish there had been more. I was hoping we might be seeing an end to the decade of drought, but that is not the case.
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Re: Texas Fall-2016
You guys in the DFW area as well as our neighbors to the south got rain today but it pretty much missed Austin other than some quick spotty showers.. No fair 

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I am a weather hobbyist living 3.5 miles south of Downtown Austin and in no way or fashion should anything I say concerning forecasts be taken seriously. Please check your local NWS for accurate weather forecasting and conditions.
I am a weather hobbyist living 3.5 miles south of Downtown Austin and in no way or fashion should anything I say concerning forecasts be taken seriously. Please check your local NWS for accurate weather forecasting and conditions.
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Re: Texas Fall-2016
No rain and mid 80s here in East Texas. I am looking forward to the upper 40s for Sunday and Monday mornings.
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Re: Texas Fall-2016
A little bit of this, a little bit of above normal. Yuck, I am greedy this time of year. Gimme some cold fronts.
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Re: Texas Fall-2016
48 degrees forecast tonight...
now it just needs to stay. I swear October is bipolar lol

now it just needs to stay. I swear October is bipolar lol
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Re: Texas Fall-2016
Like, like, like ...


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Re: Texas Fall-2016
After another beautiful weekend we warm up again this week. Luckily average hi temp now is about 80 degrees so warmer is mid to upper 80s. Unlike the 90s last week.
When looking at global SST's the closest match right now is 2013. The 500mb wave pattern too.
When looking at global SST's the closest match right now is 2013. The 500mb wave pattern too.
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Re: Texas Fall-2016
Temps ranging from mid 40s to low 50s at 7 am this morning in the Austin metro area. Chilliest morning since late April/early May. Would like some rain but at least we've got a nice autumn chill.
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Re: Texas Fall-2016
Portastorm wrote:Temps ranging from mid 40s to low 50s at 7 am this morning in the Austin metro area. Chilliest morning since late April/early May. Would like some rain but at least we've got a nice autumn chill.
Congrats to your Indians...Sorry about your Browns...I am hearing no more fronts for awhile, is that true?
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Re: Texas Fall-2016
Tireman4 wrote:Portastorm wrote:Temps ranging from mid 40s to low 50s at 7 am this morning in the Austin metro area. Chilliest morning since late April/early May. Would like some rain but at least we've got a nice autumn chill.
Congrats to your Indians...Sorry about your Browns...I am hearing no more fronts for awhile, is that true?
GFS, at least for south central Texas, doesn't see another front until Oct. 20-21 timeframe. I haven't looked too closely at 10-day Euro, to be honest.
Indians ... yes, great season and hoping it continues. Browns? They are the NOGAPS of the NFL. And my favorite college football team (Texas) isn't too far behind at this point in time.

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Re: Texas Fall-2016
54 this morning! Yippee! So dry here i love it. Next week looks warm but dry, i think late October we will get a pretty good sized front. GFS has been hinting at it in the long range.
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Re: Texas Fall-2016
The October 19-21 timeframe looks encouraging for the next big front and widespread rain chances...
It's only a matter of time now.
The sunset tomorrow at DFW is 6:59pm and getting earlier by the day. The average high drops into the 70s on Wednesday.
At least there's no record heat in sight like last year when it hit 95 on October 15th
It's only a matter of time now.
The sunset tomorrow at DFW is 6:59pm and getting earlier by the day. The average high drops into the 70s on Wednesday.
At least there's no record heat in sight like last year when it hit 95 on October 15th
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Re: Texas Fall-2016
I hit 46 yesterday morning and 48 this morning. Sounds like we have another 10 or so days of 84/64 and sunny type days before fall makes its next push.
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Re: Texas Fall-2016
Ralph's Weather wrote:Ralph's Weather wrote:I am gonna go with Sept 21st for the first 59. I expect it to correspond to a recurving typhoon as usual. I'll say Oct 12th for the first 49. Heck while I'm at it I'll say Nov 8th for the first freeze. Looks like we will be looking at a -EPO and cool ENSO cold season so repeated cold shots and near normal precip seems likely. So glad it is finally Fall though early Sept in Texas is not really Fall like, but it is on the doorstep.
Missed the first 59 date, I was at 66 this morning. Looks like it will be early next week for most of Texas.
Well I was about a week early on the first 59 and about a week late on the first 49. Now for the first freeze which I think I have a solid date on.
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Re: Texas Fall-2016
Cat. 5 in the Gulf in 384 hours!! Better batten down the hatches!


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Re: Texas Fall-2016
Last sentence of the EWX discussion leaves a little more something to chat over, instead of, for example, zonal flow and above normal temps with no rain.
000
FXUS64 KEWX 112005
AFDEWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
305 PM CDT Tue Oct 11 2016
.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
The above normal temperature trend will persist through the end of
the week with 20-30% chances of showers Thursday into early Friday
as a stalled boundary and weather disturbance interact across
south-central Texas.
Even further moisture return will occur through Wednesday into
Thursday as mid-60s to low 70 dewpoints encompass all of south-
central Texas on the southeasterly flow. A weak boundary will
slide into central Texas and it could reach as far south as the
Southern Edwards Plateau and Hill Country. With weak surface
convergence in presence of 1.3" PWATS, weak upslope isentropic
lift, and ~1500 J/Kg CAPE, isolated showers and thunderstorms
will be possible across the Hill Country to the coastal plains
and points northward. Isentropic lift appears to strengthen
slightly into Thursday night in conjunction with a mid- and
upper-level trough over the Red River Valley. Most of the rain
focus should be concentrated north but some showers could brush
the Hill Country and portions of the northern I-35 corridor
towards Llano to Lee Counties.
Once the mid- and upper-trough shifts east by Friday afternoon,
dynamic support will wane and the front will begin to washout
north of the region. With no dynamic nor low-level focus through
the weekend, near to above normal temperatures are expected with
limited to no rain chances as near zonal flow prevails into early
next week. Will need to continue to watch stronger troughing
signals late next week for a possible frontal passage and greater
rain/thunder chances. GFS/EC evolution has altered run-to-run on
its latitude depth and progressiveness but still plenty of time to
monitor for any potential impacts late next week.
000
FXUS64 KEWX 112005
AFDEWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
305 PM CDT Tue Oct 11 2016
.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
The above normal temperature trend will persist through the end of
the week with 20-30% chances of showers Thursday into early Friday
as a stalled boundary and weather disturbance interact across
south-central Texas.
Even further moisture return will occur through Wednesday into
Thursday as mid-60s to low 70 dewpoints encompass all of south-
central Texas on the southeasterly flow. A weak boundary will
slide into central Texas and it could reach as far south as the
Southern Edwards Plateau and Hill Country. With weak surface
convergence in presence of 1.3" PWATS, weak upslope isentropic
lift, and ~1500 J/Kg CAPE, isolated showers and thunderstorms
will be possible across the Hill Country to the coastal plains
and points northward. Isentropic lift appears to strengthen
slightly into Thursday night in conjunction with a mid- and
upper-level trough over the Red River Valley. Most of the rain
focus should be concentrated north but some showers could brush
the Hill Country and portions of the northern I-35 corridor
towards Llano to Lee Counties.
Once the mid- and upper-trough shifts east by Friday afternoon,
dynamic support will wane and the front will begin to washout
north of the region. With no dynamic nor low-level focus through
the weekend, near to above normal temperatures are expected with
limited to no rain chances as near zonal flow prevails into early
next week. Will need to continue to watch stronger troughing
signals late next week for a possible frontal passage and greater
rain/thunder chances. GFS/EC evolution has altered run-to-run on
its latitude depth and progressiveness but still plenty of time to
monitor for any potential impacts late next week.
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