2016 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to Day 16)

[USTropics]

00z UKMET hinting at something in the deep Caribbean

[SFLcane]

I'm quite confident that a storm will be brewing in the Caribbean around the 20th-21st. I have another comp day scheduled for the 21st. Still 2 1/2 comp days left to take from Hermine and Matthew. Despite that, I do think we'll have to keep an eye on the western Caribbean later in the month. The season may not be quite over yet. I'm not concerned about the mid Gulf coast to Texas any longer, though.

Well, time to head to the airport. I'll be at Disney in Orlando through Friday.

Soooo your inplying Florida stay tuned :0)

[jlauderdal]

00z UKMET hinting at something in the deep Caribbean

look at nicole sitting out in the north atlantic..impressive...btw, matthew and nicole are making up for an early season ACE deficit

[WeatherHoon]

Hopefully, no Wilma-esque track happens if a storm develops next week. Historically speaking, that area is no bueno for Florida when it comes to October storms.

[terrapintransit]

Especially that far north with those cold ocean temps.

00z UKMET hinting at something in the deep Caribbean

look at nicole sitting out in the north atlantic..impressive...btw, matthew and nicole are making up for an early season ACE deficit

[jason1912]

The Canadian:

[floridasun78]

i will start looking models runs by Sunday date models show get closer remember we suppose have td today in sw Caribbean but no more it was circle done by nhc

[WeatherEmperor]

12z GFS shows nothing but tiny weak vorticity in the W Caribbean. Lets see what the Euro shows later today.


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[gatorcane]

The 12Z GFS ensembles are more enthusiastic than the operational, 10 day below:

[jason1912]

The 12Z GFS ensembles are more enthusiastic than the operational, 10 day below:

[WeatherEmperor]

Looks like the 12z GFS operational is at odds with the Ensembles. Will be interesting to see which is right


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[SouthFLTropics]

12z GFS Operational goes with EPac development once again. Where this sets up shop will be the key. Is it Caribbean or is it Epac. Models are having a tough time figuring that out right now.

[northjaxpro]

I am so worn down from Matthew's battering of our area that it will take me a few days to get back into model watching mode.

I am praying that Mother Nature gives us in Florida and the rest of the East Coast a much needed respite for time being!

[jason1912]

[WeatherEmperor]

12z Euro operational going with Epac development as well through 168hrs. Lets see what the rest of the run shows




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[gatorcane]

12Z Euro with anomalously low pressure across the NW Caribbean by day 10:

[gatorcane]

12Z JMA also shows the lowering pressures across the NW Caribbean at 192 hours. Seems the globals are showing some kind of monsoon gyre that sets up over the Western/NW Caribbean/EPAC areas. Tough to pinpoint development with this type of setup until we get closer.

[floridasun78]

I am so worn down from Matthew's battering of our area that it will take me a few days to get back into model watching mode.

I am praying that Mother Nature gives us in Florida and the rest of the East Coast a much needed respite for time being!

same here in miami need time to relax was cazy here because we didnt know if track will more lefty bring hurr force wind to soth fl and i have leave my mobile home i wont looking modeles 100% untill sunday when 20 get close that over week now

[jlauderdal]

I am so worn down from Matthew's battering of our area that it will take me a few days to get back into model watching mode.

I am praying that Mother Nature gives us in Florida and the rest of the East Coast a much needed respite for time being!

same here in miami need time to relax was cazy here because we didnt know if track will more lefty bring hurr force wind to soth fl and i have leave my mobile home i wont looking modeles 100% untill sunday when 20 get close that over week now

be careful in your mobile home...very dangerous even a tropical storm. Look at models before sunday, development chances are looking better than 50%..eric blake at nhc tweeted yesterday about this area

here is some info on the ACCESS GLobal model that did well with the idea of matthew getting close to the SE Coast

About the ACCESS model
The Australian Community Climate and Earth-System Simulator (ACCESS) weather models have been developed and tested by research staff from the Bureau's Research & Development Branch and are based on the UK Meteorological Office's Unified Model. ACCESS output is available in map form or as gridded data products.

http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/ ... cess.shtml


You can run it here:

http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/ ... =G&model=G

http://www.weatherzone.com.au/models/

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/785554190856753153




https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/785557994549280768