2016 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to Day 16)

[USTropics]

06z GFS ensembles:


06z ensemble probability of TC genesis within next 120 hours:

[USTropics]

00z ECMWF forecast genesis track:

[USTropics]

I think models are zeroing in on the vigorous wave east of the Southern Lesser Antilles. If I track the 850mb vort from the 06Z GFS, it seems to track a piece of vorticity from this wave west over Northern South America and into the SW Caribbean where development commences around days 5-7:

https://s12.postimg.org/5zek0mkp9/avn_animated.gif

Following the 3hr intervals of the 00z GFS operational, seems like the northern end of this wave is what develops on the 06z run:

Tropical wave extends from 05N53W to 16N50W moving W at 15 kt.
The wave coincides with 700 mb troughing between 44W-56W and
remains beneath the base of an upper level trough in the vicinity
of 11N47W. Scattered to numerous moderate and scattered strong
convection is from 07N-14N between 43W-58W.

[otowntiger]

Looks like the majority of the models, at least 3/4's them, currently take this potential storm and head it OTS, of course after hitting the Greater Antilles somewhere between Cuba and PR. In other words a miss of the CONUS. Certainly Haiti/Cuba don't need any part of this. No one does really but they would be particularly vulnerable. As we all know, things can change and change dramatically in the long term, but I was very impressed that at about this far out the models were very astute at picking up future Matthew when it was well inland on the African continent and heading it pretty much in the direction it wound up going.

[AutoPenalti]

A TWO won't be issued until an actual disturbance is present.

[cycloneye]

A TWO won't be issued until an actual disturbance is present.

They have issued TWO for low pressures that will form.Here is an example.

An area of low pressure is expected to form over the weekend
several hundred miles south-southwest of the southwestern coast of
Mexico. Slow development of this system is possible after that time
while it moves generally west-northwestward.
*Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
*Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

[Hurricaneman]

I'm thinking like this, what the models show is similar to the pattern that caused Sandy in 2012 with a deep strong ridge to the north extending to 55w causing all the energy to pile up in the western Caribbean which almost always causes a named storm to form under the ridge in the western Caribbean kind of like pattern recognition

[psyclone]

Looks like the majority of the models, at least 3/4's them, currently take this potential storm and head it OTS, of course after hitting the Greater Antilles somewhere between Cuba and PR. In other words a miss of the CONUS. Certainly Haiti/Cuba don't need any part of this. No one does really but they would be particularly vulnerable. As we all know, things can change and change dramatically in the long term, but I was very impressed that at about this far out the models were very astute at picking up future Matthew when it was well inland on the African continent and heading it pretty much in the direction it wound up going.

Something worth pointing out is the fact that the early Matthew model runs were pretty much an Ivan redux. That ultimately didn't happen. So any specifics at this point are useless. I'd lean on climo here until something reels in closer since climo is very compelling in late October: assuming we get a system...it gets buried in central America, or a north and then northeast turn across western cuba, fl (especially south fl) and the northwest Bahamas, or central cuba to central Bahamas and OTS on a northeastward heading. those are all very common tracks for what I like to refer to as the witch's cauldron (late Oct development in the western Caribbean)..something we haven't seen in a long time. I think the climo secondary late peak is a response to development in this part of the basin. It should happen more often than it has as of late. Considering how back-loaded this season seems to be...I am very interested in this region.

[WeatherHoon]

"it gets buried in central America, or a north and then northeast turn across western cuba, fl (especially south fl) and the northwest Bahamas, or central cuba to central Bahamas and OTS on a northeastward heading."

Whatever ends up materializing, hopefully it gets buried in Central America before it has time to develop into anything significant. That's the best case scenario next to nothing developing.

[StormHunter72]

If Matthew taught us anything it's early model runs are just that.

[gatorcane]

12Z GFS starts development again around day 5 in the SW Caribbean.

[gatorcane]

12Z GFS 168 hours:

[terstorm1012]

starting to wonder if one of those monsoon gyres is going to set itself up in the western Caribbean. Those things are annoying to forecast I think.

[gatorcane]

12Z CMC with development:

[Hurricaneman]

starting to wonder if one of those monsoon gyres is going to set itself up in the western Caribbean. Those things are annoying to forecast I think.

There seems to be one setting up at the moment, we just need to watch the TW east of the lesser Antilles

[gatorcane]

12Z GFS 210 hours:

[Hurricaneman]

12Z GFS 210 hours:

with that setup its heading W to WNW but where will the turn be if there's a turn. One would think the Yucatan Channel looking at 216

[gatorcane]

12Z CMC deepening and moving slowly west in the NW Caribbean at 240 hours:

[terstorm1012]

starting to wonder if one of those monsoon gyres is going to set itself up in the western Caribbean. Those things are annoying to forecast I think.

There seems to be one setting up at the moment, we just need to watch the TW east of the lesser Antilles

thanks. yes we really do.

[gatorcane]

12Z GFS 240 hours turning more NW/WNW, note trough digging down over Texas heading towards the Gulf which should erode the ridge over Florida and the Bahamas: