2016 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to Day 16)

[Hurricaneman]

The GFS and Canadian seem to strengthen about the same but the Canadian is farther north

[gatorcane]

12Z GFS simulated IR:

[Hurricaneman]

12Z GFS simulated IR:

The GFS looks like a repeat of Wilma as far as steering currents so its definitely one to watch

[gatorcane]

264 hours heading NW (note all super long-range and subject to change):

[gatorcane]

312 hours:

[gatorcane]

The GFS 06Z and GFS 12Z positions for this storm for hour 312 are nearly identical. After that until hour 384 it is different in that it keeps the system meandering around the Yucatan until finally moving it NW. It is so far out I doubt it meanders around like that or heads NW into the Gulf given the time of year.

[SFLcane]

Texas? Not likely at all see wxman57 post few pages back.

[tolakram]

GFS 192 is interesting but until it starts showing up around 120 hours I don't believe it.

There does seem to be at least some run to run consistency building.

[EquusStorm]

If Nicole gets a little stronger than forecast, and this Caribbean possibility develops, could this be a three-major October? Interesting...

[USTropics]

Ensembles starting to really show strong signatures within the 120 hour time frame now, at least on the past few GFS ensemble runs.

12z GFS at 120 hours

[USTropics]

GFS ensemble members through 192 hours:

[1900hurricane]

This is a pretty strong signal in guidance for development considering the range. Coupled with it occurring in a climatologically favored area, and with a likely favorable background state, I'm buying in on development.

[USTropics]

12z GFS ensembles shifting towards the NW Caribbean for the most part this run.

[USTropics]

Long range GFS ensembles at 300 hours.

[otowntiger]

If Matthew taught us anything it's early model runs are just that.

Early models with Matthew told us that little puff of clouds deeply embedded over the African continent was going to track all the way across the Atlantic and affect the islands and some portion of the SE US coastline as a major storm, over two weeks before it did. Of course a lot can change especially in the finer points about ultimate strength and specific track but when they all start locking in on some type of development initializing in a certain spot, I will take notice. Of course there are plenty of examples where they all bust too, so the possibilities are endless.

[AutoPenalti]

Oh boy, Wilma II.

Still plenty of time to watch.

[Alyono]

Development is not as much of a certainty as it was with Matthew. However, large scale conditions are favorable for another major storm

[gatorcane]

You can see why this area has my interest here in South Florida - I looked at some historical storm tracks for the month of October where the GFS is showing development. Also October is the month South Florida gets hit the most by cyclones more than any other month.

[jlauderdal]

You can see why this area has my interest here in South Florida - I looked at some historical storm tracks for the month of October where the GFS is showing development. Also October is the month South Florida gets hit the most by cyclones more than any other month.

the numbers dont lie....October is by far the most active time for South Florida

[otowntiger]

Development is not as much of a certainty as it was with Matthew. However, large scale conditions are favorable for another major storm

Could you explain what you mean by that? Why was Matthew's development more certain at this stage of the game? Is that because 2 weeks out there was at least a disturbance that existed when right now, all we have are possibilities? Just curious since I have no real technical knowledge of all these models and synoptic patterns and such. Thanks in advance!