2016 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to Day 16)

[cycloneye]

We will stick here as there was no mention at 2 PM TWO.

[Alyono]

Development is not as much of a certainty as it was with Matthew. However, large scale conditions are favorable for another major storm

Could you explain what you mean by that? Why was Matthew's development more certain at this stage of the game? Just curious since I have no real technical knowledge of all these models and Synoptics. Thanks!

With Matthew we already had a system in place, that being the low amplitude wave over Africa. The large scale conditions were obscenely favorable with large scale upward motion and the favorable phase of a Kelvin wave. Add into that the no shear.

For this one, we MAY have a very weak Kelvin wave. Plus, we do not have a disturbance present yet.

This leads to a difference of we MAY have a major storm vs we WILL have a major storm

[USTropics]

12z GFS ensembles:

[jlauderdal]

12z GFS ensembles:

gfs did well with matthew, storm has to develop first before we start comparing it to wilma

[WeatherHoon]

12z GFS ensembles:

Those are some ugly tracks. I have tickets for a festival in Suwannee the 28-30th. I know it's too early to worry about anything at this point, but the timing suggested by the models has me a little nervous.

[stormlover2013]

we know how models run can be........lets wait till something is out there

[OntarioEggplant]

Euro barely shows a surface low.

[tolakram]

Euro barely shows a surface low.

But it does show an area of vorticity, which is pretty normal for the Euro this far out.

[SouthFLTropics]

I think what we need to take from all of these model runs is that the Western Caribbean needs to be watched very closely starting around next Monday or Tuesday. By Friday of next week there could be a TC over the warmest waters of the Atlantic Basin.

[Hurricaneman]

I think what we need to take from all of these model runs is that the Western Caribbean needs to be watched very closely starting around next Monday or Tuesday. By Friday of next week there could be a TC over the warmest waters of the Atlantic Basin.

Not just the Atlantic, the world so that is what gives me the willys about this possibility

[DESTRUCTION5]

I think what we need to take from all of these model runs is that the Western Caribbean needs to be watched very closely starting around next Monday or Tuesday. By Friday of next week there could be a TC over the warmest waters of the Atlantic Basin.

The growing consensus is there will be a tropical cyclone in the NW Caribbean in 7-8 days over 90 degree water. Not the best of scenarios.

[gatorcane]

12Z UKMET still going with slow development:

[AutoPenalti]

06z



12z

[gatorcane]

Looks like a lot of rising air over the Western Caribbean that would help development there next week:

[HURRICANELONNY]

A post from Dr. Jeff Masters:

Watch for development in the Southwest Caribbean early next week
A broad area low pressure is expected to form in the waters of the Southwest Caribbean off the coast of Nicaragua early next week. A tropical depression form could form there next week, according to a number of the 70 forecasts of the GFS and European model ensembles. It is too early to be confident of a direction of motion for this system, but a movement to the northwest over Nicaragua and Honduras appears to be the most likely track, with a possible motion to the north over the central or western Caribbean later in the week.

[bamajammer4eva]

While the warm waters could be of concern, since we're in mid October isn't it getting more difficult to get a strong TC going due to upper level winds as fall is in full swing?

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[MetroMike]

While the warm waters could be of concern, since we're in mid October isn't it getting more difficult to get a strong TC going due to upper level winds as fall is in full swing?

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Warm waters ARE a concern. Just because the calendar says mid-late Oct.the available energy this season could be a factor in increased cyclone development.

[gatorcane]

FIM-9 with development:

[emeraldislenc]

What was the date of Hurricane Mitch?

[crownweather]

What was the date of Hurricane Mitch?

Formed on October 22nd, 1998.