ATL: NICOLE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Kazmit]

To watch the storm in Bermuda, a good place to go is http://www.portbermudawebcam.com/
Conditions are already deteriorating, and waves are crashing over the pier. I believe winds are around 25 kts, gusting to 35 kts.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE NICOLE ADVISORY NUMBER 31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016
500 PM AST TUE OCT 11 2016

...NICOLE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.4N 66.4W
ABOUT 350 MI...565 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Nicole was located
near latitude 27.4 North, longitude 66.4 West. Nicole is moving
toward the northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A northwest to north-
northwest motion is expected tonight. A turn toward the north and
an increase in forward speed are expected Wednesday morning,
followed by a northeast turn late Wednesday. On the forecast track,
the center of Nicole is expected to approach Bermuda Wednesday night
and pass near Bermuda on Thursday.

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph (130
km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast
during the next day or so, and Nicole is forecast to be near major
hurricane strength by late Wednesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km).

The latest minimum central pressure reported by reconnaissance
aircraft is 980 mb (28.94 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce coastal
flooding in Bermuda. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied
by large and destructive waves.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to begin on Bermuda by
Wednesday night, with tropical storm conditions beginning Wednesday
afternoon.

RAINFALL: Nicole is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 3 to 5 inches over Bermuda through Thursday.

SURF: Swells associated with Nicole will affect Bermuda during the
next few days. These swells will create dangerous surf conditions
and rip currents. Please refer to products being issued by the
Bermuda Weather Service.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

HURRICANE NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016
500 PM AST TUE OCT 11 2016

Nicole has continued to strengthen today with the cloud pattern
becoming much better organized since this morning. A 20 to 25 n mi
wide eye has developed and become better defined within a rather
symmetric central dense overcast. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft that investigated Nicole this afternoon has measured
peak 850-mb flight-level winds of 79 kt, SFMR winds of around 65 kt,
and a minimum pressure of 980 mb. Based on these data, and the
continued increase in organization the initial wind speed has been
increased to 70 kt.

Environmental conditions consisting of low vertical wind shear and
warm sea surface temperatures along the track of Nicole should allow
for additional intensification during the next day or so. In fact,
the SHIPS Rapid Intensification Index shows nearly a 30 percent
chance of a 30 kt increase in wind speed during the next 24 hours.
The NHC intensity forecast has been increased from the previous
advisory and calls for Nicole to be near major hurricane strength
when it passes near Bermuda in 36 to 48 hours. The NHC forecast
calls for a faster increase in strength during the next 24 hours,
but is close to the peak shown by the LGEM and FSSE models. Later
in the forecast period increasing shear and cooler SSTs should
result in some weakening, but the global models predict that Nicole
will become a large and powerful extratropical low over the North
Atlantic in 3 to 4 days.

Satellite and aircraft fixes indicate that Nicole is moving
northwestward at about 4 kt. The track forecast reasoning remains
unchanged from the previous advisory. Nicole should turn northward
into a break in the subtropical ridge by Wednesday and then turn
northeastward as it reaches the mid-latitude westerlies. The
dynamical models remain in good agreement, and the updated NHC
forecast is again near the middle of the guidance envelope. The new
official forecast is also very similar to the previous track.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/2100Z 27.4N 66.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 12/0600Z 28.0N 66.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 12/1800Z 29.1N 67.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 13/0600Z 30.8N 66.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 13/1800Z 33.1N 64.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 14/1800Z 38.0N 59.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 15/1800Z 41.0N 54.0W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 16/1800Z 41.5N 53.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Brown

[gatorcane]

Watch out Bermuda, snippet from NHC 5pm est advisory:

The NHC intensity forecast has been increased from the previous
advisory and calls for Nicole to be near major hurricane strength
when it passes near Bermuda in 36 to 48 hours

[Alyono]

Watch out Bermuda, snippet from NHC 5pm est advisory:

The NHC intensity forecast has been increased from the previous
advisory and calls for Nicole to be near major hurricane strength
when it passes near Bermuda in 36 to 48 hours

catching up to private industry

[Emmett_Brown]

Take a look at the Vis: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

This is a beautiful example of a hurricane winding up and forming an eye from what a appeared as just a ball of clouds in a few hours. Sorry, it's time dependent, I don't know how to paste pics.

[abajan]

To watch the storm in Bermuda, a good place to go is http://www.portbermudawebcam.com/
Conditions are already deteriorating, and waves are crashing over the pier. I believe winds are around 25 kts, gusting to 35 kts.

Yep. That's the webcam a number of folk here at S2K have been viewing for the last few hurricanes. A few minutes ago, I was just in time to see a Carnival Cruise Line ship depart. And the waves are indeed picking up.

[cycloneye]

Bermuda is under a Hurricane Warning and is time for a local thread to be up.

Web Cam: http://www.portbermudawebcam.com/

Bermuda radar: http://www.weather.bm/tools/graphics.as ... 0SRI&user=

[Hypercane_Kyle]

ADT Raw T# for Nicole shot up to 6.0 when that eye cleared out.

[CrazyC83]

It seems that this weekend something strange happens with Nicole - it goes extratropical around Friday, but goes back to tropical by Sunday or Monday...

[abajan]

Take a look at the Vis: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

This is a beautiful example of a hurricane winding up and forming an eye from what a appeared as just a ball of clouds in a few hours. Sorry, it's time dependent, I don't know how to paste pics.

Here's one way to do it:

1. Assuming you're using a PC, In your browser's address bar, click the URL and when it becomes selected, copy it
2. Go to http://imgur.com/ and register a new account if you don't already have one
3. Login to the said account and click New post:
   
4. In the menu that drops down, click Upload Images:
   
5. Click inside the box which states Paste Image or URL and paste the URL into it:
   
6. After a few seconds, the image will appear and a short while afterward a green callout with the text 1 image saved will also appear. Wait for that confirmation before proceeding to the next step:
   
7. Hover the mouse over your username and in the menu click Images:
   
8. Click the thumbnail of the image and wait a few seconds:
   
9. A box will pop up containing a number of links on its right. Click the link labelled Original GIF Link to select it, and copy it:
   
10. Paste it into your post, wrapped in image [img] tags, just like you would do with any other image

That's pretty much it. Here's my saved image of what you wanted to post:



This thread has alternatives to Imgur.

[CrazyC83]

I'm thinking the NHC will conservatively raise the intensity to 80 kt at the intermediate. Dvorak supports MUCH higher (I'd say it is a T5.5) but the Recon flight only supported 65-70 kt earlier.

[Hammy]

Seems the upwelling has caused some short term problems, but I checked the models and they seem to have anticipated this, leveling it off overnight tonight into early tomorrow, before beginning RI the latter half of Wednesday into most of Thursday.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE NICOLE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 31A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016
800 PM AST TUE OCT 11 2016

...NICOLE STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE...
...PREPARATIONS IN BERMUDA SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.3N 66.5W
ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.76 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Nicole was located
near latitude 27.3 North, longitude 66.5 West. Nicole has moved
little during the past few hours, but a slow northwest to north-
northwest motion is expected tonight. A turn toward the north and an
increase in forward speed are expected Wednesday morning, followed
by a northeast turn late Wednesday. On the forecast track, the
center of Nicole is expected to approach Bermuda Wednesday night and
pass near Bermuda on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the
next day or so, and Nicole is forecast to be near major hurricane
strength by late Wednesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115
miles (185 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 974 mb (28.76 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce coastal
flooding in Bermuda. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied
by large and destructive waves.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to begin on Bermuda by
Wednesday night, with tropical storm conditions expected to begin
Wednesday afternoon.

RAINFALL: Nicole is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 3 to 5 inches over Bermuda through Thursday.

SURF: Swells associated with Nicole will affect Bermuda during the
next few days. These swells will create dangerous surf conditions
and rip currents. Please refer to products being issued by the
Bermuda Weather Service.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brennan

[Kazmit]

Stationary movement at 8pm, with 75 kt winds. This will be one long storm for Bermuda.

[abajan]

Per 8 PM advisory, pressure is down to 974 mb.

[CrazyC83]

Per 8 PM advisory, pressure is down to 974 mb.

The 974 is an estimate though, since the last Recon was 980 but with the satellite presentation having improved since. When is the next Recon flight?

[1900hurricane]

Dark grey eye embedded within a light grey CDO would yield a Data T of 5.0, which is probably a good starting point for the 00Z intensity estimate. The eye was warmer earlier (off-white), but it wouldn't make a difference in the DT. Verbatim T5.0 is matched with a 90 kt intensity, but that might be a little high for right now considering the recon data from earlier. MET is probably 4.5 right now, which is correlated with a 75 kt intensity. Maybe a blend of the two would be appropriate for an 80-85 kt intensity? As for pressure, using KZC for the 70 kt from earlier yields a 979 mb pressure, which is very close to what recon found (980 mb). An 80 kt intensity would have a pressure of 972 mb and an 85 kt intensity would have a 968 mb pressure using the same methodology.

Considering all of the above, I'd probably go with 80 kt/972 mb at 00Z.

[euro6208]

Huge system especially with that outflow. Looks like one of those WPAC monsters when intensifying...

[abajan]

Pretty windy in Bermuda already, judging from what I'm seeing and hearing via the Port Nassau webcam. Speaking of hearing, perhaps they ought to consider wrapping the mic in a dead cat to cut down on the wind noise. If it's so noisy now, imagine how loud it's going to be when Nicole's eye makes its closest pass!

[Aric Dunn]

wouldn't quite say its stationary. you do a long term average from this morning and its due west and still crawling west at 2 miles per hours.