ATL: NICOLE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ThetaE]

First recon pass found 969 mb, and a dropsonde in the SE eyewall measured 84 kt. I suspect the NE eyewall has the strongest winds, though, so I think they may find it to be a 90 kt storm.

[tolakram]

IR loop

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=28&lon=-65&info=ir&zoom=2&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir3.pal&numframes=30&mapcolor=white

Visible

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=28&lon=-65&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=15&mapcolor=yellow

[NotoSans]

Looks like a 80-knot storm per the latest recon pass.

[Nimbus]

The 06Z HWRF has Nicole intensifying to 96 knots and passing Bermuda with the strongest winds making landfall there. Bermuda has weathered worse storms its always a royal PITA.

[abajan]

Bermuda going to get hit.

I feel its eye is going to pass to the southeast of them. That would be better than if it passes to their northwest, because they would be on the weaker side. Either way, they're still likely to get a lot of rain. I notice that the NHC has increased the expected accumulations in the last couple of advisories to 4" to 8", up from 3" to 5".

[msbee]

looks like Bermuda is already starting to get some rain.
http://www.weather.bm/webcam.html
http://www.earthcam.com/world/bermuda/p ... am=bermuda

[Kazmit]

Looks to be moving north now.

[tolakram]

30 frame visible loop

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=28&lon=-65&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=30&mapcolor=yellow

[tolakram]

latest

[Ken711]

Bermuda going to get hit.

I feel its eye is going to pass to the southeast of them. That would be better than if it passes to their northwest, because they would be on the weaker side. Either way, they're still likely to get a lot of rain. I notice that the NHC has increased the expected accumulations in the last couple of advisories to 4" to 8", up from 3" to 5".

Hope that's the case.

[abajan]

I'm seeing lifeboats being lowered into the water from the cruise ship on which the webcam is currently focused. I haven't done much cruising in my lifetime, so I'm not sure if this is related to Nicole or if it's just normal operating procedure to test their seaworthiness: http://www.portnassauwebcam.com/

[Ken711]

From NHC 11:00 AM discussion:

The NHC forecast is once again very close to the previous
advisory, and shows the core of Nicole passing near or over Bermuda
between 24 and 36 hours.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/1500Z 28.4N 66.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 13/0000Z 29.5N 66.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 13/1200Z 31.5N 65.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 14/0000Z 33.7N 63.1W 85 KT 100 MPH

[abajan]

Nicole is getting larger. The extent of both the hurricane force and storm force winds outward from the center has increased from 30 miles and 115 miles, to 45 miles and 160 miles respectively.

[Kazmit]

Snippet from the 11am advisory:

The aircraft data indicate that Nicole has grown in size since
yesterday, and the initial and forecast wind radii have been
adjusted accordingly.

Not good for Bermuda.

[abajan]

Snippet from the 11am advisory:

The aircraft data indicate that Nicole has grown in size since
yesterday, and the initial and forecast wind radii have been
adjusted accordingly.

Not good for Bermuda.

I beat you to it by a minute!

[JahJa]

I'm seeing lifeboats being lowered into the water from the cruise ship on which the webcam is currently focused. I haven't done much cruising in my lifetime, so I'm not sure if this is related to Nicole or if it's just normal operating procedure to test their seaworthiness: http://www.portnassauwebcam.com/

That might just be because you are looking at a camera in the wrong country! Nassau......Bahamas. Hamilton......Bermuda.

[CrazyC83]

I think it will be interesting to see what happens after Bermuda (meteorologically)...

[abajan]

I'm seeing lifeboats being lowered into the water from the cruise ship on which the webcam is currently focused. I haven't done much cruising in my lifetime, so I'm not sure if this is related to Nicole or if it's just normal operating procedure to test their seaworthiness: http://www.portnassauwebcam.com/

That might just be because you are looking at a camera in the wrong country! Nassau......Bahamas. Hamilton......Bermuda.

By golly, you're right! The websites are very similar. I couldn't figure out why the water was so placid and the clouds were blowing in the wrong direction.

Here's the correct link: http://www.portbermudawebcam.com/

[Ken711]

Snippet from the 11am advisory:

The aircraft data indicate that Nicole has grown in size since
yesterday, and the initial and forecast wind radii have been
adjusted accordingly.

Not good for Bermuda.

I beat you to it by a minute!

Could it be a Cat 3?

[abajan]

Snippet from the 11am advisory:

The aircraft data indicate that Nicole has grown in size since
yesterday, and the initial and forecast wind radii have been
adjusted accordingly.

Not good for Bermuda.

I beat you to it by a minute!

Could it be a Cat 3?

By the time its center makes its closest approach to Bermuda? Yes. I think it's a real possibility.