2016 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to Day 16)

[WeatherEmperor]

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[WeatherHoon]

From what I see, it misses the front and looks to get buried in Belize.

[SFLcane]

06z GFS has nada possibly a weak low heading NE. Hopefully after destructive blow to Bermuda this is it for the season.

[DESTRUCTION5]

06z GFS has nada possibly a weak low heading NE. Hopefully after destructive blow to Bermuda this is it for the season.

We went from High pushing a Cat 2 into the Yuc to a sheared depression heading NE with a major cold front. In one run.

[jlauderdal]

06z GFS has nada possibly a weak low heading NE. Hopefully after destructive blow to Bermuda this is it for the season.

We went from High pushing a Cat 2 into the Yuc to a sheared depression heading NE with a major cold front. In one run.

not unusual this far out...we saw this a couple of days ago...the euro desont seem to excited about this area

[blp]

The problem is the Euro is developing a low in the Bahamas that serves to eject any vorticity out of the Southern Carribean heading NE. The 06z GFS shows this solution for the first time so we need to see if it is trend. If you go by the 5-7 day time frame the models are very consistent on a strong area of vorticity developing in the Southern Carribean off Nicaragua. I think almost all the models have this now. Euro is very quick to eject the vorticity out versus the GFS which is slower. In the 7-10 timeframe it gets very uncertain because yesterday's Euro had the vorticity getting trapped under a High and falling back into the SW Carribean versus today ejecting it OTS after hitting Haiti and Bahamas. So I think by no means is this done. We will more than likely have some weak development in this area in a week or so.

[SouthFLTropics]

06z GFS has nada possibly a weak low heading NE. Hopefully after destructive blow to Bermuda this is it for the season.

We went from High pushing a Cat 2 into the Yuc to a sheared depression heading NE with a major cold front. In one run.

The major cold front was a welcome sight and I would love to see future runs showing that. Bring on the cool weather for the Southeast!!!

[jlauderdal]

06z GFS has nada possibly a weak low heading NE. Hopefully after destructive blow to Bermuda this is it for the season.

We went from High pushing a Cat 2 into the Yuc to a sheared depression heading NE with a major cold front. In one run.

The major cold front was a welcome sight and I would love to see future runs showing that. Bring on the cool weather for the Southeast!!!

going to have trouble pushing a major cold front past north Florida this time of the year

[gatorcane]

FIM-9 develops in the SW Caribbean and moves it north while strengthening:

[gatorcane]

A small cluster of GFS ensembles do move the low that forms in the SW Caribbean NE like the Euro but most of the GFS ensembles are still showing a slow north movement into the NW Caribbean while strengthening the low:

[gatorcane]

BIG shift west by the NAVGEM:

[bamajammer4eva]

I noticed remnants from a super typhoon coming into the west next week. In the past these have brought big time cool downs in the US so maybe this could send a deep trough and cold front to steer any system away from US.

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[northjaxpro]

The first signs of convective build-up may be starting across the Southern Caribbean this morning a few hundred miles south of Jamaica. Just something of interest.

[floridasun78]

The first signs of convective build-up may be starting across the Southern Caribbean this morning a few hundred miles south of Jamaica. Just something of interest.

i been noticing that area too

[Steve]

I noticed remnants from a super typhoon coming into the west next week. In the past these have brought big time cool downs in the US so maybe this could send a deep trough and cold front to steer any system away from US.

It will get into the pattern, and over the last couple of days, there looks like the possibility that there could be some gusts over 70mph on the NW Pacific Coasts. I haven't looked at that today. It was an interesting feature basically progged E across the Pacific.

[gatorcane]

GFS not impressed, seems to be caving to the EURO. Also the CMC is caving as well with showing something spinning up in the Bahamas. Ends up dragging the low from the SW Caribbean N then NE

[SouthFLTropics]

12z GFS shows once again a heckuva cold front sweeping all the way through South Florida on the 22nd of the month. I'm praying this comes to past and we can truly get a taste of Fall down here.

[Hurricaneman]

I'd still watch the area in the Caribbean because the models could bring this feature back in later runs, maybe even todays later runs

[gatorcane]

12z GFS shows once again a heckuva cold front sweeping all the way through South Florida on the 22nd of the month. I'm praying this comes to past and we can truly get a taste of Fall down here.

Yeah a South Florida hurricane season ending front if that verifies

[otowntiger]

12z GFS shows once again a heckuva cold front sweeping all the way through South Florida on the 22nd of the month. I'm praying this comes to past and we can truly get a taste of Fall down here.

Yeah a South Florida hurricane season ending front if that verifies

Sounds good to me! But something tells me that may be too good to be true! When is the last time a strong cold front made it all the way thru the peninsula in October?