WPAC: HAIMA - Post-Tropical

[euro6208]

94W INVEST 161012 1800 5.0N 148.0E WPAC 15 NA

South of Guam.

[euro6208]

EURO brings this onshore as a 936mb monster.

[euro6208]

894mb peak and slams Taiwan hard, 905mb.

[euro6208]

NWS: Micronesia should keep a close watch on developing system.

The next concern is the circulation near 6N150E. All models show
it in this general location. It will move slowly northwest
passing south of Guam near 8N145E on Saturday. It will continue on
the northwest track being located near 12N140E Sunday night.
Confidence in this is reasonably high as multiple models and runs
of the models have shown this. At this time expect isolated
showers and thunderstorms today through Friday. As the circulation
gets closer scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will
cover the Marianas Friday night and persist through Sunday night
as the system passes by. Winds will be from the east today turning
southeast Saturday. Current forecast has the wind speeds at 10 to
15 mph through Saturday night increasing to 10 to 20 mph Sunday.
The confidence in the wind speed is not as stellar as the other
items. The current GFS shows winds between 20 to 25 mph while
ECMWF is half that. Earlier ECMWF predictions had winds closer to
what the GFS is now. Because of this model uncertainty it is
possible that winds may be a little higher than in the current
forecast.

The monsoon pattern remains over Yap and Palau and will promote
continued showers and thunderstorms at Koror the next day or two
while Yap sees isolated thunderstorms and showers. Winds and seas
will continue to decrease the next couple of days but a developing
disturbance SW of Chuuk, near 6N150E, will need to be closely
watched by folks in Yap and Palau. Models have been coming into
better agreement in showing a developing circulation passing near
Yap late in the weekend. Models differ on how strong the circulation
will be but all agree on increased showers and thunderstorms, more
so at Yap than Koror, but its passage will cause the monsoon pattern
to redevelop at Koror Sunday and Monday. Have made necessary changes
to wind forecasts for a passing near Yap and have accordingly
increased seas at Yap for the weekend.

[1900hurricane]

This was the original system guidance was picking up beginning about a week ago. It fell out of favor in the model solutions for a bit when 24W became a player, but it is being picked back up in a big way now. From a climatological standpoint, it's hard to beat a coherent low latitude disturbance on the monsoon trough originating east of the Philippine Sea in October, which is exactly what 94W is. It's still early in the game, but 94W may be primed for big things.

[mrbagyo]

The spiral pattern of 94w is now very evident on satellite imagery loop.
Surely, this system looks poised to really ramp up in the coming days given the available energy stored and the favorable environment along its track

[euro6208]

JTWC straight to MEDIUM.

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 7.3N 146.3E,
APPROXIMATELY 380NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSON AFB, GUAM. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 130440Z SSMI 85 GHZ IMAGE BOTH
DEPICT BROAD TURNING WITH RELATIVELY DISORGANIZED CONVECTION, WITH
SIGNS OF IMPROVED CONSOLIDATION. A 130013Z METOP-B ASCAT IMAGE
REVEALS ELONGATED TURNING BEGINNING TO FORM A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER WITH 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW 5 TO 10 KNOT
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND IMPROVING OUTFLOW, ENHANCED BY A TROPICAL
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELL LOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST.
DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24-
36HRS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS MEDIUM.

[euro6208]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
430 PM CHST THU OCT 13 2016

PMZ161-PMZ171-140200-
KOROR PALAU-YAP-
430 PM CHST THU OCT 13 2016

...INCLEMENT WEATHER EXPECTED FOR WESTERN MICRONESIA THIS WEEKEND...

A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IS CENTERED ABOUT 270 MILES WEST OF CHUUK
NEAR 7N148E. THE DISTURBANCE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN THE
COMING DAYS AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
BETWEEN GUAM AND YAP OVER THE WEEKEND.

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN MUCH OF THE AREA BETWEEN
YAP AND CHUUK TODAY. SHOWERY WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER FAR WESTERN
MICRONESIA THIS WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY FOR YAP STATE. ALSO...MARINE
CONDITIONS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CAREFULLY BECAUSE WINDS AND
WAVES COULD BECOME HAZARDOUS FOR SMALL CRAFT NEAR THE DISTURBANCE
OVER THE WEEKEND.

IF YOU ARE PLANNING ANY OUTDOOR OR MARINE ACTIVITIES OR INTER-ISLAND
TRAVEL...BE AWARE OF CURRENT MARINE CONDITIONS AND STAY INFORMED ON
THE LATEST FORECASTS AND ANY POSSIBLE ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICES.
TRAVEL BY BOAT SHOULD BE CAREFULLY PLANNED IN THE COMING DAYS.

PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ARE POSTED ON THE
WFO GUAM WEB PAGE AT http://WWW.PRH.NOAA.GOV/GUAM/ (ALL LOWER CASE).

$$

SIMPSON/GUARD/EDSON

[1900hurricane]

Probably time for a TCFA. 94W is already very close to becoming a tropical depression.

[1900hurricane]

Typical of a disturbance on the monsoon trough, 94W is still lacking surface northerlies needed for tropical cyclone classification. I'm thinking they'll be coming sooner than later though.

[1900hurricane]

The 12Z GFS features the lowest modeled pressure with any tropical cyclone that I can remember so far this year for 94W. Yikes.

[euro6208]

WTPN21 PGTW 132030
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 7.0N 146.1E TO 10.2N 141.9E
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 131800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 6.9N 145.8E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 7.0N 146.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.9N 145.8E, APPROXIMATELY 398
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH DEEP FLARING CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. AN
131718Z 85GHZ SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS THE BULK OF CONVECTION
LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE LLCC. THE
SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH STRONG DUAL
CHANNEL OUTFLOW AIDED BY A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT)
TO THE NORTHWEST, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15KTS), AND WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT AS
THE SYSTEM TRACKS TO THE NORTHWEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
142030Z.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

NWS

All eyes are focused on the tropical `string of pearls` to our
south and west. It stretches from Tropical Depression Aere (22W)
near Vietnam to Tropical Storm Sarika (24W) to a circulation south
of Guam which will likely soon be the subject of a tropical
cyclone formation alert to a circulation just west of Kwajalein.
Kwajalein had winds of just below Tropical Storm strength as it
passed, the question is, was it the circulation or was it just
outflow or something similar? Both the GFS and ECMWF-HiRes wash it
out over the next 2 or 3 days, merging what is left with the one
south of Guam right now. That is the scenario currently in the
grids, and so far no other is depicted. If the circulation near
Kwajalein is that strong though, will it really be washing out
that soon?

If it behaves as the models expect, the Marianas, especially Guam
and to a lesser extent Rota, could expect to see 20 to 25 knot
winds and a an inch or two of rain as this thing goes by. A little
to the north or south could make a big difference though. For now,
saw no reason to change what is currently in the grids, so just
extended the wave grids, mainly.

[euro6208]

Weaker by 2 mb from the 06Z run. But 884 mb? Colassal landfall...

[mrbagyo]

Downright scary if you're living in the coastal area of Isabela province (remotest area in Luzon mainland).

[1900hurricane]

It looks like northerlies can be seen on visible imagery (particularly if you view an image loop). If these can be verified by ASCAT or other means, I'm ready for a renumber.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

[dexterlabio]

Soon-to-be TS coming through.



TD
Issued at 01:30 UTC, 14 October 2016

<Analysis at 00 UTC, 14 October>
Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N6°20' (6.3°)
E145°20' (145.3°)
Direction and speed of movement W Slow
Central pressure 1004 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 15 m/s (30 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23 m/s (45 kt)

<Forecast for 00 UTC, 15 October>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N7°25' (7.4°)
E143°50' (143.8°)
Direction and speed of movement NW Slow
Central pressure 1000 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 200 km (110 NM)

[1900hurricane]

Metop-B alludes to a closed circulation, although the scatterometer missed.

[euro6208]

TPPN12 PGTW 140351

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 94W (SE OF YAP)

B. 14/0300Z

C. 6.50N

D. 145.10E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T2.0/2.0 STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .35 ON LOG10
SPIRAL, YIELDING A DT OF 2.0. MET AND PT ARE UNAVAILABLE. DBO
DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


CHAPPOTIN